This is the second part of Dabai's investigation in Changsha.
1
Before starting this article, let's look at five pictures.
They are the price trend charts of Xi 'an, Changsha, Kunming, Wuhan and Suzhou in 20 18.
From these five pictures, you can clearly see the same trend, that is-
Before July 2065438+2008, the house prices in these five cities showed a rapid upward trend, with a monthly increase of 3-5%.
But it began to differentiate after July.
The rising trend of housing prices in Xi 'an, Changsha and Kunming has changed, with Changsha directly reversing, from rising to falling; After a brief slowdown, Wuhan and Suzhou have ushered in a greater leap.
Behind this is the famous June 28 incident, which was also the month of the last round of property market reversal.
2
Let's put the clock back to June 28th, 20 18.
On the same day, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with seven ministries and commissions, issued a special action notice to rectify the chaos in real estate. The whole article was only 8 1 1, and only 30 cities were criticized by name, namely:
Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Hefei, Fuzhou, xiamen, Jinan, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu, Changsha, Chongqing, Xi 'an, Kunming, Foshan, Xuzhou, Taiyuan, Haikou, Ningbo, Yichang, Harbin, Changchun, Lanzhou and Guiyang.
Among them, Suzhou, Wuhan, Xi, Kunming and Changsha are the five cities with the biggest increase and the craziest.
For example, in Wuhan, after 20 17 skyrocketed for one year, 20 18 still had to rely on the cost of the tea farm to buy a house;
Xi 'an, the famous event that Sunac "led" the reservation, is the epitome of Xi 'an property market in 20 18.
So there was a 6.28 roll call accountability.
Subsequently, the 30 cities named have successively introduced various regulatory overweight policies;
Look at Wuhan first-
1, just need to buy a house first;
2. You can apply for provident fund in different places;
Look at Xi' an again-
1, the purchase restriction policy does not limit the number of years of settlement and social security;
2.Xi' an household registration family is limited to three sets;
3. Second-hand houses can be traded for three years without paying 5.6% value-added tax for two years;
Look at Suzhou again-
1, 9 departments jointly issued a special action document to control the chaos in the property market;
2, the city is restricted to purchase and upgrade, and the foreign account buys a new house, and the social security for one year is +600 points.
Look at Kunming again-
There is only one set, and non-Yunnan hukou can only buy one set.
Ok, let's see how Changsha does it.
On June 28th, Changsha re-issued the detailed rules for regulation and control, which contained many words. We chose the key point-
1. If a household registered in this city owns 2 or more houses in the restricted area, the purchase will be restricted;
2, local singles, foreigners have 1 sets and above, limited purchase;
3. After moving into the family to settle down, provide one-year tax or social security continuously, and limit one set;
4. Regardless of household registration, there is a tax or social security for more than 2 consecutive years, and the purchase is limited to 1 set;
5. Limit the purchase of children, minors and college students with collective accounts within two years;
6. Buying a house within 2 years after divorce is calculated according to the total number of families before divorce;
New or second-hand houses purchased after July 2016 can only be traded after four years of real estate license;
8. Families in this city already have real estate, and they can only buy two sets after four years of issuance;
9. The number of people who shake the number is not more than 1.5 times of the housing. If the unit or household registration is in the restricted purchase area, it will be sorted according to the time of settlement and the time of paying social security tax.
Let's further improve it—
1, college students settle down after graduation, divorce, settle down, take refuge and replace. If they are not qualified to buy a house, they will never buy a house;
2. Two years of social security but no stable employment in Changsha, no qualification to buy a house;
3. In the case of a large number of lottery players, local people are given priority, and the older they are, the more they have the priority to buy;
4. Buy a new house for 7-8 years;
5. Locals have to wait four years to buy two sets;
Judging from Changsha's regulatory rules, it can be said that all possible first loopholes have been blocked, and it is the local middle-aged and elderly people who can finally buy a house. This is also the only known city that pays attention to seniority when buying a house.
Compared with the control policies of the other four cities, Changsha is the real adjustment and upgrading, and it is in one step.
What is the purchase restriction, not to mention that foreigners can't buy it, even locals can't buy it;
What is the restriction on sales, not to mention the restriction of sales for 2 years or 2 years, and directly bottomed out in 4 years. The new house is not seven or eight years old. If you want to sell, don't even think about it;
What is the joint rectification of real estate, that is, directly cracking down on real estate speculation;
Therefore, as soon as this policy came out, the effect was immediate. The rising momentum of housing prices in Changsha is directly reversed, and there is no buffer period.
Look at other cities, such as Suzhou and Kunming, which are rising all the way.
We don't judge policy regulation, but only look at the results of regulation analysis-
The last round of the property market started from Shenzhen on 20 15, followed by Shanghai and Beijing, and then from the first line to the second line. /kloc-after the continuous upgrading of state regulation in 0/7, most second-tier cities in China have increased by about 50%, and only a few second-tier cities that started late have only increased by about 30%. Changsha is a typical city that started late.
Changsha property market rose from 16 to 20 17 520, and then Changsha entered the new talent policy. If you have a degree, you can move your account at any time and sign an account to buy a house.
However, the distance from the start of the big market always seems to be coming to an end.
Until around the Spring Festival on 20 18, the sales center in Changsha began to be crowded, and the local media said that it was hot to return home on 20 18!
But in fact, this is a sign before the Changsha market starts.
Especially on March 8, beichen delta's low-key opening triggered looting, which became a landmark event of Changsha's last round of market officially launched.
Subsequently, Changsha began a rapid rise in housing prices. From April to June, the price increase in Changsha exceeded 15%. Riverside, Meixi Lake and other hot spots once exceeded 20,000, and many properties went out of independent hot markets.
Following the National June 28 Incident, Changsha offered the strongest property market regulation.
The following points were emphasized:
Back to the beginning of this article, the rising momentum of housing prices in Changsha reversed.
Therefore, Changsha's rising momentum came to an abrupt end.
Let's talk about a round of property market rise, which is mainly divided into four stages:
Before startup, the storage capacity increased by 20%
Up to 30% at startup
Welcome the main rising wave to rise by 40%
Cold landing depression increased 10%
So, what stage did Changsha reach before 6.28? The third stage is over, which means that Changsha still has a 30% increase to let go.
However, this is not the most important thing. Most importantly, Changsha has also implemented the most stringent price limit policy in the country-
The land price is used to push back the house price, and the hardcover price limit is also strictly at 2500. The result is extremely flat house prices.
We know that the lot value accounts for more than 70% of the house price, and the lot gradient basically reflects the price gradient of a city.
From the fundamental point of view of housing prices, a city's housing prices are divided into three gradients, of which the average price represents the second gradient of a city's housing prices; Then combined with Changsha's extremely dull price limit policy, 50% of the houses in Changsha have increased by more than 30%, and at least 30% of the houses have 50% or even higher space.
three
1, even if Changsha makes up the increase in the future, the increase will only be the average level of second-tier cities, and the second-hand liquidity is average.
For investors, remember not to buy two, but to choose one: don't buy remote ones, don't buy small ones. In addition to the CEO's unlimited price, you must choose high-quality plates such as Binjiang-Shifu, Meixi Lake and Wu Guang New Town.
3. Choose a new house in Changsha. All transactions of new houses and second-hand houses purchased since 16 have been frozen. Second-hand houses that can be traded, because they are imported, have high second-hand prices, but the evaluation prices generally can't keep up, so new houses in Changsha are far cheaper than second-hand.
Buying Changsha must be a long-term investment. Through this regulation, many people will despair of Changsha. At present, the repeated business environment will make capital fear, produce negative emotions, lose confidence in the city, and lead Changsha to fall behind in the new round of urban pattern shaping.
Therefore, Changsha needs to wait for a chance to change.
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