2016-10-09 23: 27:18 Reading (2323)
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Text/Financial Woman | Poisonous Tongue and Kindness
20 16 is the turning point for Evergrande to become a big boss. A number of indicators, including sales, surpassed Vanke in an all-round way and became the first brother of residential real estate, and the Evergrande era began.
10 On June 3rd, China Evergrande announced that it had reached an agreement with Shenfang to purchase 0/00% equity of Evergrande Real Estate/kloc-0 held by Guangzhou Khyron Real Estate Co., Ltd., a domestic subsidiary of China Evergrande, by means of share payment and/or cash payment. If this move is successful, Evergrande Real Estate will be listed in both Hong Kong and the Mainland. Evergrande Real Estate plans to introduce about 30 billion yuan of war investment before the transaction is implemented. The transaction constitutes a spin-off listing for Evergrande; This transaction constitutes a major asset restructuring for Shenfang shares.
Evergrande expects the total sales, revenue and net profit in the next three years to be10.5 trillion yuan,10.008 trillion yuan and 88.8 billion yuan respectively. From 20 17 to 20 19, the expected contracted sales in three years are about 450 billion yuan, 500 billion yuan and 550 billion yuan respectively, maintaining an average annual growth rate of about 10%; The estimated operating income is 280 billion yuan, 348 billion yuan and 380 billion yuan respectively; It is estimated that the non-net profit deducted in three years will be about 24.3 billion yuan, 30.8 billion yuan and 33.7 billion yuan respectively.
Evergrande promises that if the actual profit of the underlying assets is less than the promised performance after the performance commitment expires, Khyron Real Estate will make compensation according to the regulations and approved methods of the regulatory authorities.
From the data point of view, Evergrande's estimate is conservative, and the probability of Evergrande exceeding its commitment is high.
1
Brother land reserve
Evergrande has always been a surging deep-water bomb. As far as the most important land reserve of real estate companies is concerned, Evergrande's land reserve jumped to the first place in China in 2009 and has remained so far.
From 2009 to 20 14, the average annual growth rate of Evergrande's land reserve reached 33.5%. By the end of June, the land reserve of Evergrande was 65.438+67 billion square meters. According to the market valuation conducted by CB Richard Ellis, the land reserve has increased from the previous 2,565.438+0.6 billion yuan to 524.2 billion yuan. If the value of land reserve is increased according to the average value of the past ten years, Evergrande's assets will increase greatly.
Evergrande has basically completed the adjustment of land reserve structure. At one time, Evergrande was the real estate spokesperson of third-tier cities. On March 3rd, 2065438, Xu Jiayin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Evergrande Real Estate Group, stressed for three times that 46% of Evergrande's sales performance of 20 1000 billion yuan was contributed by third-and fourth-tier cities.
However, Evergrande quickly completed a new round of strategic adjustment according to the situation, and became a land reserve giant in first-and second-tier cities from 20 14. 20 14 became a crucial year for Evergrande to change the structure of land reserve resources. The Group's land reserve is distributed in 147 cities nationwide, covering all first-tier cities and most provincial capitals. Of the 305 projects, 46.9% are located in first-and second-tier cities.
At the 20 16 performance conference, Mr. Xu Jiayin said that Evergrande has 24 projects in Shenzhen. "The land reserve is close to120,000 square meters, and the value of goods is estimated to be 350 billion yuan according to the current selling price." Of the 375 projects included in the land bank, 55% are in the first and second lines, and 73% of the land is invested in the first and second lines. This does not include the 17( 1 1 10,000 square meters) old reconstruction project that has been acquired by Shenzhen but not included in the soil storage.
Evergrande quickly cut into first-and second-tier cities from third-tier cities, and completed the new layout in about three years. This enterprise has an amazing speed.
High profits are achieved through three channels.
Due to the foreseeable increase in property delivery, Evergrande's future income and profit will rise rapidly.
The first is the increase in sales amount and average sales price. The average pre-sale price of Evergrande rose from 5375 yuan/m2 in 2009 to 2065438+7892 yuan/m2 in 2005, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.6%. In the past two years, due to the vigorous development of the market, the growth rate is above 8%.
In the next three years, even according to the conservative forecast that the average selling price will only increase by 6%, on the basis of the average price of 8,538 yuan/square meter in the first half of 2065,438+06, it is estimated that the average pre-sale price will range from 17 to 10474 yuan/square meter, 988 1 yuan/square meter and/kloc-.
Secondly, the expansion of the market in the past two years and the increase in pre-sales have brought about an increase in property delivery.
This is the inevitable result of market expansion and Evergrande's speed. In 2009, the amount of property delivered by Evergrande was 5 billion, 20 15438+0265 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 7 1% in 2005.
Due to the September sale of 20 16, the future real estate delivery will increase geometrically. 20 16 delivered 83.7 billion yuan in the first half of the year, and it is expected to deliver186 billion yuan in the whole year, and the pre-sale undelivered amount is 382.3 billion yuan.
In the next three years, according to about 70% of unsold houses in the previous year, houses can be delivered this year. From 20 17 to 20 19, the amount of real estate delivery was 280 billion, 348 billion and 380 billion respectively. According to the average annual investment level of about 83%, the investment amount from 17 to 19 will be as high as 332 billion, 4 12 billion and 450 billion.
According to the profit forecast model, with the core net profit rate of 8.8%, it is estimated that the profits at the two handover levels will be 24.3 billion, 30.8 billion, 33.7 billion, 29.2 billion, 36.3 billion and 39.6 billion respectively from 20 17 to 20 19.
However, if calculated according to 70% of unsold properties in the previous year and the average profit rate of core business in the first six years of 65,438+00.7%, the profits in the next three years can reach 30 billion, 37.2 billion and 40.7 billion respectively.
As long as the market is basically stable, the cost will be controlled. With the reduction of expenses, Evergrande's profit margin can exceed its expected 10%. For Evergrande, it is normal to maintain the core profit rate of 10%. From 20 10 to 20 15, the average profit rate of Evergrande's core business in six years is 10.7%.
Finally, with low cost, high premium and high turnover, Evergrande has achieved extremely high sales gross profit in second-and third-tier cities. More than one developer said that Evergrande only needs four to six months from land acquisition to opening, which is the fastest in the industry. The cumulative average cost of 20 14 land reserve is about 997 yuan/square meter, which is at a low level in the industry. Coupled with the 6% annual average sales price increase, Evergrande should be able to maintain a profit growth of 10% or even higher as long as there is no major event in the real estate market.
three
It is Evergrande itself that can defeat Evergrande.
Starting from 20 15, the expenses of Evergrande increased. Although pre-sales increased by 53% to 201300 million, the corresponding marketing and management expenses increased. Of the 20126.5 billion, the property delivery is only126.5 billion, accounting for 14.6%, which is 8.6 percentage points higher than the previous average.
After 20 17 years, with the stabilization of large-scale development and sales cycle, Evergrande's advertising and other expenses will be reduced. Considering that Evergrande has divested non-main businesses such as grain, oil and beverage, eliminated the influence of diversified investment business, and concentrated on the property market and financial market, the marketing expenses will be further reduced in the future.
Evergrande's rapid development and overtaking mode in corners may bring two major drawbacks, one is quality stability, and the other is debt ratio. At present, Evergrande is in a good control level in these two aspects.
There are three things that can reassure investors.
First, cash. Due to good sales and large repayment amount, Evergrande's cash holdings reached 21200 million yuan, making it the "largest financier" of listed real estate enterprises, and its total cash increased by 29% compared with the end of 20 15.
The second is to introduce strategic investors. If 30 billion war investment is successfully introduced based on the data of the group's interim report, the net debt ratio can be reduced from 92.9% to 65.8%.
Third, listing. According to the data, the total share capital of China Evergrande is 65.438+03.684 billion yuan, and the total market value is 76.5438+70.2 billion Hong Kong dollars, which is about 58 billion yuan, only one fifth of Vanke's. According to industry insiders, if China Evergrande successfully returns to A-shares, the net profit commitment of 88 billion yuan for three years will make a great contribution to the valuation, and it will be 220 billion yuan according to the valuation of 10 times, far exceeding the current market value.
Judging from the performance of China Evergrande stock market, after the announcement, the stock price generally rose, and the short selling price showed that short selling no longer dominated.
Evergrande's brotherly road is so smooth, mainly due to the matching between Evergrande's strategy and the reality in China, and the crazy premium of real estate as the most important capital in China. Evergrande's boldness and accurate grasp of policies are so matched with China's gold rush that it has become the winner of current business circles in China. Wang Shi and Xu Jiayin, two business people, will help us to judge the market and have a more accurate understanding of China's economy.