According to the data disclosed at the sharing meeting of market situation and enterprise research results held by Central Reference Institute/KLOC-0 in early June, the pace of market recovery accelerated in the third quarter of 2020. The off-season effect in July and August was obviously weakened, and the transaction area continued to grow rapidly year-on-year. However, the momentum of demand release weakened in September, the year-on-year growth rate dropped significantly, the absolute scale was not as high as that in July and August, and the color of "Jin Jiu" was insufficient.
According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, the sales area of new houses in key cities in 2020 10 was 728,600 ㎡, which was slightly higher than last year's National Day week 1.6%. On the whole, this year's holiday sales level is basically the same as last year, but because this year's holiday is longer than last year's 1 day, from the perspective of average daily sales area, the average daily sales area of keys 1 10000 ㎡ in 2020 is 9.1./kloc-. The average daily sales area is less than the historical level, which is the lowest value of National Day Week since 20 15.
It is not difficult to see from the data that the "golden September and silver ten" of the property market this year is slightly "light" compared with previous years, which is not unrelated to the tightening of the real estate market regulation policy since the third quarter and the continuous strengthening of the positioning of "staying in the house and not speculating".
On July 24th this year, Han Zheng, Vice Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China hosted a symposium on real estate work. The meeting stressed that it is necessary to firmly adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, not to use real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy, to stabilize land prices, housing prices and expectations, to adopt differentiated control measures according to local conditions, and to ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. On July 30th, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting to set the tone for the real estate market again, insisting that houses are used for living, not for speculation, so as to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
On August 26th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a real estate work meeting in Beijing. The meeting stressed that it is necessary to unswervingly adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation, insist on not using real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy, maintain the continuity and stability of regulatory policies, and ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
In addition, relevant regulatory policies have been introduced and promulgated in many places across the country. For example, on September 4th, the Office of the Leading Group for the Steady and Healthy Development of Real Estate in Hangzhou issued the Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market, strengthening the regulation of the land market, strengthening the prudent management of housing loans, clarifying and further unifying the tax policy, improving the housing purchase restriction policy, adjusting the identification standard of families without houses, and strengthening the sales management of hot commodity housing projects. On September 23rd, the people's governments of official website and Changchun issued the Notice of the General Office of Changchun Municipal People's Government on Implementing the Responsibility of Urban Subjects and Further Strengthening the Regulation of the Real Estate Market, demanding to strengthen the management of housing land supply, continue to implement the guidance of commodity housing prices and adjust the credit policy of commodity housing.
Since June 65438+ 10, local regulatory policies have continued. For example, on June 9, 10, the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Xuzhou City, Jiangsu Province and other five departments jointly issued the Notice on Further Promoting the Healthy Development of the Urban Real Estate Market, demanding to strengthen the accurate supply of land for commercial housing, strengthen the filing management of commercial housing sales prices, implement the real estate financial policy, and continue to adhere to the policy of restricting the sale of commercial housing. On the same day, Shaoxing Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau issued the Notice on Further Promoting the Stable Operation of the Real Estate Market. It is necessary to further strengthen the regulation of land supply, establish a linkage mechanism between housing prices and land prices, increase land supply, and implement differentiated land supply. Strictly implement the policy of "limiting land price and competing for construction" and strictly control premium rate and floor land price.
According to the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, in September, the number of real estate regulation and control in China was 35, and many cities increased their regulation and control efforts, compared with 32 in July and August. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said in an interview with Securities Daily that with the warming of the market, the policy orientation of maintaining market stability began to shift obviously from July, and many cities tightened their policies in August, which lasted until September and 10, and curbing market overheating became a new feature of regulatory policies. Looking at the overall trend, the regulatory policy of gradually tightening and overweight is expected to stabilize the market.
"The' stability' of real estate regulation this year has not only made great efforts in price regulation, but also in the stability of real estate supply, such as the document issued by Yinchuan to prevent the phenomenon of unfinished business." Cheng Yu, a senior researcher at Understanding Research Institute, told the Securities Daily reporter that this shows that government regulation not only exerts its strength in traditional price stability, but also begins to pay attention to the stability of developers' supply capacity. This policy is equivalent to raising the entry threshold for local developers. It also puts forward higher requirements for the management of developers' financial ability. This is not in the previous regulations. This shows that the risk coverage of real estate regulation is expanding.