"There are too many new energy automobile companies now, and they are in a small and scattered situation." Xiao Yaqing, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, also bluntly said at the press conference of the General Office of the State Council recently that we should give full play to the role of the market, encourage mergers and acquisitions of enterprises to become bigger and stronger, and further improve industrial concentration. Obviously, China's new energy automobile industry has entered a new era of paying equal attention to competitive development and structural adjustment.
Merger and reorganization of excess capacity is a good way.
If only one person in 100 can survive, will anyone rush to such a cruel track? In the micro world, almost no one makes such a choice. But from an industrial point of view, major companies are eagerly awaiting: this is the track of new energy vehicles-there is a serious overcapacity now.
To what extent is the surplus? According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, by the end of 20021,the total production capacity of new energy vehicles in China was 26.69 million vehicles/year, and the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in that year was 1.367 million vehicles. According to this calculation, the capacity utilization rate of the new energy automobile industry is only 5. 1%, and the idle capacity exceeds 25 million vehicles.
The main reason for overcapacity is that some enterprises blindly follow suit and invest. As early as May 20021year, there were 308 registered new energy vehicle manufacturers in China. As of May this year, there are 7 1 automobile groups and more than 455 new energy automobile enterprises in China.
Although the number of new energy automobile enterprises continues to rise, some enterprises cannot raise enough funds to ensure the sustainable development of new products, and some enterprises even have the problem of broken capital chain. Yan Jinghui, a member of the china automobile dealers association Expert Committee, said that many tail-end new energy automobile companies were caught in the predicament of low sales and idle production capacity because the previous production progress was too big, but they did not pay attention to technology research and development.
We found that most of the nearly 500 new energy automobile enterprises are weak small and medium-sized enterprises, with large enterprises accounting for only 14.6% and small enterprises with registered capital of less than 40 million yuan accounting for 410.3%. Generally speaking, it is big but not strong. It can be predicted that in the next few years, in the post-epidemic era, with the increasing competitive pressure, the Matthew effect will continue to increase and the survival of vulnerable enterprises will be more difficult.
The intensification of overcapacity will not only lead to the idleness and waste of funds, land, talents and other resources, but may even lead to vicious competition in prices. An Qingheng, director of China Automobile Industry Advisory Committee, said that for the vast majority of new energy automobile enterprises, restructuring or elimination is the general trend and must be decided as soon as possible. He believes that the statements of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have released a positive signal to the market, and the merger and integration of the new energy automobile industry will become an important feature in the next stage.
Although merger and reorganization is the general trend, it must not be carried out blindly. We must look at this problem from both sides. On the one hand, encouraging the merger and reorganization of new energy automobile enterprises will effectively use the excess capacity of idle automobile enterprises and factories, concentrate resources on the high-end chain of enterprises and industries with strong demand, adjust the industrial structure and improve the concentration of resources, which is the need of the industry's own development and is also conducive to the whole industry becoming bigger and stronger.
On the other hand, the hidden dangers brought by mergers and acquisitions are also worthy of vigilance. Due to many opportunities in the field of new energy vehicles, many enterprises compete to produce electric vehicles. However, not all enterprises have made full preparations. Some enterprises have not conducted in-depth research on the structure of electric vehicles, but only replaced the engine with a motor. Therefore, we must be alert to speculation in the wave of mergers and acquisitions.
What is the appropriate minimum capacity utilization?
Low capacity utilization has been staged in the industry. At the beginning of this year, Jiangsu exposed overcapacity. According to its public information, from 202 1 to 202 1, the capacity utilization rate decreased year by year, from 78% to 33.03%, which seriously deviated from the reasonable range of capacity utilization rate. Among them, the utilization rate of automobile production capacity in Huai 'an, Zhenjiang, Nantong and Taizhou is less than 10%, that in Changzhou and Suzhou is less than 20%, and the idle production capacity exceeds 200,000 vehicles.
In addition to Jiangsu, Jiangxi has also been publicly named as overheated by the National Development and Reform Commission. It is reported that Jiangxi has introduced Inter Milan Jun, Shandong Kema Ganzhou Branch and several automobile companies. The planned production capacity exceeds 2 million vehicles, but Jiangxi produced 400,000 vehicles last year.
Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of North China University of Science and Technology, believes that many new energy vehicle companies are caught in the dilemma of idle production capacity. The fundamental reason is that they don't pay attention to technology research and development, which leads to the loss of competitiveness of products after subsidies fall, and the existing production capacity gradually becomes a large-scale backward production capacity.
However, these problems seem to be far from the shadow of corporate gold rush here. Due to the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales, the prospects between markets are empty. Car companies have optimistic expectations for new energy vehicle sales, and capacity planning is also based on market expectations. According to the data of CCID Research Institute, the estimated production capacity of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shaanxi and Shandong will reach 5.23 million, 4,765,438+500,000, 3.49 million and 3.095 million respectively during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period. In terms of vehicle projects, there are 27 in Jiangsu and 2 1 in Zhejiang.
Car companies are equally ambitious. The ideal production capacity of BAIC New Energy, BYD, Tesla and Weilai will reach 6.5438+0.38 million, 6.5438+0.335 million, 6.5438+0.05 million, 350,000 and 300,000 respectively.
From the results, the demand growth obviously lags behind the capacity growth. So, how to balance? Or how much capacity utilization is normal?
According to the enterprise and product announcement statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 20021year, there were 64 automobile enterprises that actually produced new energy vehicles in China. According to the statistics of 487 new energy automobile enterprises, this proportion is only 13%. By 20021,although the sales proportion of new energy vehicles in China's automobile market has greatly increased, the estimated maximum value of 20021is 3 million vehicles, which is almost one ninth of the planned production capacity.
What is even more fatal to the disadvantaged new energy vehicle companies is that the "head concentration" of these two or three million vehicles is very high. Leading enterprises such as Tesla, BYD and Weilai occupy the vast majority of the shares, while traditional car companies such as Volkswagen and BMW also share a piece of the pie, so that the share of disadvantaged new energy vehicle companies is very small.
The person in charge of Weilai Automobile told the reporter that the utilization rate of automobile capacity needs to reach 80% to ensure profits. At present, among the new forces, only Tesla has achieved individual quarterly net profit, and most other new forces only have gross profit margin, but the net profit has not yet turned positive. The head car companies are still like this, so what about the weak car companies?
How many pure electric vehicle companies do we need?
The overtaking development of new energy vehicles has indeed brought many disadvantages to the industry. Perhaps in the new energy auto start stage, the country has not yet had a relatively complete planning guide map for the industry as a whole to understand. Simply using policy support or financial subsidies to encourage the development of automobile enterprises has led to the emergence of many "bad money". Competing with other automobile companies in the new energy automobile industry is confusing the real with the fake.
In fact, in the past two years, there has been a reshuffle in the field of new car-making forces, including Ranger, Lindsay, Baiteng, Future, Bojun Automobile and many other new car-making forces, while Aichi, Duyun, Xinte and other new car-making forces have all achieved mass production delivery, but the development prospects are not very optimistic. So, who will stay?
In fact, there have been several rounds of mergers and acquisitions in the field of traditional fuel vehicles. As early as 202 1, China issued the Plan for Adjustment and Revitalization of Automobile Industry, proposing to encourage SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng and Changan to merge and reorganize nationwide, and to encourage BAIC, GAC, Chery and China National Heavy Duty Truck to merge and reorganize regionally. This idea is called "four big and four small" mode of automobile merger and reorganization by the industry.
202 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology once again issued the Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Merger and Reorganization of Enterprises in Key Industries, which set the tone for the automobile industry. By 20021,the industrial concentration of the top ten automobile enterprises will reach 90%, forming 3-5 large enterprise groups with core competitiveness.
Despite frequent policies, the structural problems of the domestic automobile industry are still outstanding. It can be said that the M&A between domestic automobile enterprises has nothing to do with market factors except the matchmaking of the government and the promotion of foreign businessmen. As a result, many reorganizations ended in failure.
However, compared with traditional automobiles, the merger and reorganization of the new energy automobile industry seems to be different. The bright future has attracted more enterprises to make efforts in this field. In recent years, the cooperation between automobile enterprises and between automobile enterprises and cross-border enterprises has gradually become the development model in the post-new energy automobile era.
Since 20021,mainstream car companies such as Changan New Energy, Beiqi New Energy, Chery Automobile and FAW Automobile have either introduced new investors or completed asset restructuring, while Aichi Automobile, Jiangling Group and Changan Automobile have completed the mixed reform of Jiangling Holdings. In March, 20021,BYD Toyota electric vehicle technology co., ltd, a joint venture between BYD and Toyota, was formally established. The two parties are technically equal, which means that a new era of joint venture in the field of new energy vehicles in China has begun.
Not only between car companies, but also after the entry of technology companies, it also promoted the development of this integration. For example, in March this year, Duji Automobile Co., Ltd., jointly established by Baidu and Geely, was formally established.
And a new round of integration has begun to appear. For example, Xiaomi Group, which has just completed cooperation with FAW Group, is actively discussing the acquisition of Baowo. Nezha Automobile, which had previously held 360 shares, and Gree Electric, which plans to acquire Zhuhai Yinlong for 654.38+03 billion. But if we want to completely change the status quo of the industry, we still need a really cruel way of mergers and acquisitions.
Wang Xing, CEO of Meituan, once predicted the future pattern of China automobile enterprises, and he thought that the second half of the year would basically be "3+3+3+3" competition. Among them, three central enterprises are FAW, Dongfeng and Chang 'an, three local state-owned enterprises are SAIC, GAC and BAIC, three private enterprises are Geely, Great Wall and BYD, and the three new car-making forces are Ideality, Weilai and Tucki.
No matter who stays in the end, with the acceleration of the merger and reorganization of the new energy automobile industry, there is no doubt that oligopoly enterprises will be born, representing China's new energy automobile to the world stage. @20 19