In the 2 1 century, information technology will develop in the following aspects:
1. Microelectronics is developing towards high efficiency.
Modern computers are based on microelectronics. There used to be a Moore's law in microelectronics: every 18 months, the number of transistors integrated on a chip doubled. According to the latest research, it has broken through and doubled every 12 months. In 1950s, only 1 electronic components could be installed on a silicon wafer with an area of 0. 1 square inch, but now there are more than 30,000 electronic components.
It is generally believed that microelectronics technology is about to enter the "post-lithography era", and with the development of nanotechnology in the future, computers may be built on the basis of more micro-integration and higher speed, causing a new revolution in the field of sieve. The result is that (1) is more efficient. Nanotechnology can make more energy-saving and cheaper microprocessors, improve the efficiency of computers by one million times, and produce more efficient broadband networks, large-capacity storage and intelligent devices integrating sensing, data processing and communication. (2) Small size. Nanocomputers can be reduced to one thousandth of the diameter of hair. The United States used nanotechnology to make a flea-sized robot. This technology uses a microcomputer, and the robot has primary logical thinking ability. In addition, the robot can also work under absolutely dangerous or inaccessible environmental conditions, and it can be used to complete fault handling in nuclear reactors. This technique can also be used to transport atoms and rearrange them. (3) The function is strange. Nano-chips with airplane pilot programs can be implanted into human bodies, receive information through cells, and can fly airplanes without training.
It is predicted that there will be a powerful computer applying electron spin, nuclear spin, photon technology and biochip in this century, which can simulate the human brain for cognitive perception and thinking processing. It is predicted that biochips with storage capacity of 6.5438+0 million g per cubic millimeter will be produced in the next decade, and the power consumption is only one tenth of that of VLSI.
In short, it can be predicted that the functions and integrated structures of microelectronics and electronic devices will develop in the direction of high integration, high speed, low power consumption and low cost.
Second, computers are developing towards multipolarization.
2 1 century, computers are developing towards ultra-high-speed, miniaturization, parallel processing (simultaneous processing) and intelligence. Its development track is different from the "big fish eat small fish" in nature, but "fast fish eat slow fish". Whoever takes the lead in the market will become the leading product.
At present, there is a speed law of 10 times in the computer field: every 5-7 years, the speed increases by 10 times, the volume decreases by 10 times, and the price decreases by 10 times. This law will be broken soon.
In terms of ultra-high-speed, the peak of IBM's high-performance computers has reached more than 300 trillion times per second. The United States plans to develop trillions of computers by 20 10. The limit computer deduced from quantum theory will have a speed of 105 1 times per second and a memory of 103 1 bit.
In miniaturization, Japan has used integrated circuits to compress a TV station (including equipment and information collection and storage) into a small button chip, which has achieved initial results. They are going to re-press it into the size of a pill, and even imagine putting the inspection equipment into the patient through the pill to directly observe the patient's condition.
In terms of intelligence, your eating habits are stored in the refrigerator computer in advance. When snacks, oil, rice, soy sauce and vinegar are finished, it will automatically connect to the internet to help you order from the supermarket. The microwave oven can download recipes automatically. As long as you put the chicken, duck and fish you bought in advance, it will automatically thaw at your scheduled time and make delicious food.
These predictions actually show people the infinitely broad development prospects of information technology, and also show that there is still a lot of room for development of information technology from "maturity".
Third, the network is developing in an advanced direction.
Computer technology belongs to information processing technology, and communication technology belongs to information transmission technology. In their independent development stages, it is difficult for information technology to make a big breakthrough. After the 1960s, with the improvement of computer technology and digitalization of communication technology, the two information technologies were organically combined on the basis of compatibility and storage, which made information technology enter a new era of integration of information transmission, processing and storage. On the one hand, it realizes the automation and high efficiency of modern communication system under the control of computer, and integrates various communication modes. On the other hand, computers are networked through communication lines. The general trend is the integration of data, voice and image technology.
After computer networking, its development trend is as follows:
1. Popularize wireless networks
Communication technology and network technology are integrated and further developed into a wireless network based on wireless fidelity technology. It can connect to the Internet at high speed anytime and anywhere through a laptop or other computing devices, without cables. Wireless fidelity technology will enable individuals to have the ability of network communication, which is a profound social progress.
2. Infinite expansion of energy
With the appearance of Internet, information resources have really become the third largest resource after material and energy. Computer network, especially since the commercialization of 1994 Internet, the influence of Internet revolution has shocked the world. In American words, this change is equivalent to the sum of 65,438+00 industrial revolutions and Christian reforms in one generation. The electronic space created by the Internet is becoming a "new frontier" that countries all over the world are scrambling to seize after land, sea and air, because whoever has an advantage in electronic space will get rich economic benefits in the development of network economy. The economic development of the United States in recent years is an example. Indeed, with the application of network technology, the energy of computers has been infinitely expanded and information resources have been fully utilized. Because a well-designed network can implant the cumulative power of online into every single machine; The larger the network connected to the microcomputer, the more useful it is, and the more powerful it is. When you work online, you are not using a personal computer, but a huge computer with infinite expansion of energy. Moreover, the future network development is to seamlessly connect broadband multimedia services distributed in all corners of the earth, and users can access any database and network in the world with any access method anywhere. At the same time, you can keep any communication with any user. In addition, the network will surpass the earth and be introduced into the solar system or even further.
3. The function is gradually improved
Due to the limitation of technology and infrastructure, the traditional network has defects in network security, scale, performance and service ability, and the future network will develop in a larger, faster, more timely, safer and more convenient direction.
The core technology of the next generation Internet backbone independently developed by China officially passed the national acceptance in September 2006. This achievement confirms China's leading position in the field of the next generation Internet in the world, and also marks that China has occupied a place in the research and construction of the next generation Internet in the world. The next generation Internet backbone network has achieved four breakthroughs in core technologies, three of which are the first in the world. This not only established China's leading position in the next generation Internet field, but also had the right to speak. More importantly, it has completely got rid of the dependence on foreign key Internet technologies and products, which will have an important impact on China's Internet industry while ensuring national information security.
The difference between the next generation Internet and the modern Internet: faster; Bigger; Safer; More timely; More convenient.
-Come on. The next generation Internet will increase the transmission speed by 1000- 10000 times than the current network.
-Bigger. At present, the biggest problem of the network is the limited network address resources. Under the current IPV4 protocol, 70% of the existing addresses have been allocated, which obviously restricts the development of the Internet. Theoretically, there are currently 4.3 billion IP addresses in use, of which North America accounts for 3/4, about 3 billion, while Asia with the largest population is less than 400 million, and China only has more than 30 million. Due to the lack of IP address, many countries only use * * * access and dial-up to use the Internet, which seriously restricts the application and development of the Internet in these countries. Compared with the current network, the next generation Internet will gradually abandon IPV4 and enable IPV6 address protocol. The biggest advantage of the next generation network is that the network address is almost infinite. Everyone can have160,000 IP addresses, and almost everything in your home can be assigned to your own IP address. The IP address of every user such as car, washing machine, telephone and refrigerator is unique on the global Internet, making digital life a reality.
-It's safer. At present, due to various reasons, there are a lot of security risks in computer networks. The next generation Internet can effectively control and solve network security problems by fully considering security issues at the beginning of its construction.
In short, mankind will enter the information age in an all-round way. The information industry will undoubtedly become the most ambitious and dynamic industry in the future global economy. Information will become the most important resource and competitive factor in the knowledge economy society.