8.25 Cash flow game sharing: an over-standard game

Last week, we played an excessive cash flow game. The number of people exceeds the standard Originally, there were six people at a table, but this time, seven people played together. Time exceeded the standard, it is expected to end at 5:30, and the discussion and sharing will not end until 6:30. The spread range exceeds the standard. Cash flow is a financial quotient promotion game, in which financial quotient is experienced and promoted, and the theme of communication is also based on financial quotient. This time, the theme of communication extends to a broader topic, such as breaking cognitive limitations, enhancing cognition, ultimate thinking and changes of the times.

The nurse has played the stand-alone version on her mobile phone many times. This is 1 time to play offline games. He recognizes the importance of financial quotient, but rarely sees offline games and has never participated in them. We discuss from this: the book rich dad and poor dad has been selling well for 20 years, and the cash flow game has been interviewed for more than 20 years. Why are there still so few people involved in game learning and financial quotient now?

Not because financial quotient is unimportant, not because the contents in the book are worthless, not because the game is not fun, but because of cognitive limitations. Because in most people's cognition, financial quotient is far less important than IQ and EQ, and the importance of financial management is far less important than hard work. They even think that financial management is a dispensable thing.

Each of us has different goals in life, but in general, we are all pursuing the maximization of happiness. Happiness is a comprehensive life experience, which needs effective management and treatment at different stages of life. And this kind of management and handling can be measured in three dimensions.

IQ: people's ability to understand and grasp natural and objective things.

Emotional intelligence: the ability to identify, grasp and deal with each other's feelings at the psychological level in interpersonal communication.

Financial quotient: the cognitive and grasping ability of people to exchange money with others or social organizations.

These three dimensions constitute our comprehensive ability to manage life, and will also affect our happiness in life. Comprehensive ability is a cube, the volume of this cube represents our ability, and individual IQ, EQ and financial quotient are the length, width and height of this cube.

As can be seen from the picture, all three are important. If we want to pursue the maximization of comprehensive ability (happiness value), we need the balanced development of the three, maintain balance and maximize the volume; Instead of favoring one side over the other, only pay attention to one side.

However, this theory is quite different from what we accepted before. In the process of growing up, in our daily life, we rarely hear information related to financial business, and even have a one-sided impression on financial management: financial management is an unprofessional thing, a risky thing and a very difficult thing. Financial management requires a lot of money and is completely unnecessary. Financial management is a matter for professionals, not ordinary people.

It is precisely because of these ubiquitous and lingering old ideas that people have an innate understanding of financial management. This cognitive limitation makes our thoughts and behaviors stay in the old world, making it difficult for us to get in touch with the objective world and new cognition. This leads to the question we discussed at the beginning: why has financial and business education developed for so many years and cash flow games been popular for so many years, but it is still developing slowly? Because there is a solid wall between them: cognitive limitations.

When we have been living within the cognitive wall, this cognitive wall will become stronger and stronger, which will isolate us from the outside world and limit our lives to this limited range.

How can I see the world outside the wall? How can we break the cognitive wall and expand the cognitive boundary? There is no other way but to study. Through reading, attending classes, thinking, practicing and experiencing, we will continue to learn, broaden the cognitive boundaries and break the cognitive limitations.

What kind of investment is a good investment? Buy stocks or buy houses? Do you want to buy it early or later? Man Cang or partial warehouse? Is it long-term holding or short-term holding? Is the current policy appropriate? How to deal with policy risks and market risks? Can previous investment results be used as proof of success and guide future investment?

In fact, these questions have no answers, no standard answers, and no correct answers. Whether an investment is a good investment needs to match your risk preference and risk tolerance.

The same investment decision may have completely different results for different investors. An investment that fluctuates by 50% is an investment that radical investors expect; But for conservative investors, when the loss rate reached 20%, he began to stay awake at night and hurriedly cut his meat to stop loss; For mature investors who invest with idle money, they can bear the loss in case; This is a disaster for small white investors who invest with their own living funds.

Therefore, there is no good or bad investment decision, only whether it matches, whether it matches your risk preference and risk tolerance. In other words, in addition to paying attention to this investment, we need to pay more attention to the personal situation of investors. How to know your risk preference and risk tolerance? It's simple. Search Baidu for a "risk tolerance test form" and you will know it as soon as you do it.

When I make every investment, can I achieve the goal of wealth freedom? Never seen it. There are often such players in the game, and every investment strategy is correct, but for various reasons, it is difficult to achieve wealth freedom. These reasons include: bad luck, policy changes, lack of opportunities, lack of time and so on.

Is it really that difficult to achieve the goal? Is it really that uncontrollable? In fact, not necessarily, there is a trick to ensure that you have a high probability of achieving your goal. This move is asset allocation.

The truck driver in this game is an old player. He can basically achieve his goal every time, no matter what role he chooses, how difficult it is, how volatile the policy is and how lucky he is.

This time he chose a truck driver, which is a moderately difficult role. The luck of this game is average. I met a high-yield real estate, and a stock rose sharply, but I also encountered the confiscation of real estate. In the whole game, he did not make an investment decision to get rich, but participated in the investment continuously and steadily. Bought six houses, three stocks and invested in a company.

His investment is divided into three stages. In the first stage, 1 barrel of gold was saved mainly by buying and selling stocks and real estate (a small amount of loans were made in the middle to enlarge the funds). In the second stage, using the existing funds, continue to buy real estate and increase cash flow until the passive income is greater than the expenditure. The third stage, enter the fast lane.

When he resumed trading, he analyzed his investment strategy, and the key was asset allocation. According to the liquidity, risk and profitability of investment products, holding them in proportion can keep these three aspects in balance. Don't worry about too much risk. Although a fortune is confiscated, it won't hurt your bones. Don't worry about lack of funds, meet good opportunities and projects, and still have the ability to participate; Don't worry about low returns, several assets you hold are likely to appreciate.

It is precisely because of his balanced and comprehensive asset allocation method and phased asset management style that his asset management is stable and controllable and has a high success rate. Looking back, the possible reasons why those players failed to achieve their goals are: some players hold a large number of enterprises and real estate, which have been unable to realize and lack funds. Some players only hold an asset, and once there is systemic risk, it is difficult to return to heaven. Some players have been pursuing "owning assets" from beginning to end, but neglected to increase passive income.

In fact, this is the famous asset allocation theory. Among many factors affecting portfolio performance, the most critical factor is asset allocation, accounting for 9 1.5%. In other words, when your assets are allocated reasonably and effectively, it doesn't matter whether you invest early or late, whether you buy Wanda shares or Vanke shares, which has little impact on the overall asset growth.

So how to allocate assets? This needs to go back to the previous topic: first analyze your own risk preference and risk tolerance, and then select and match different types of assets according to your own asset management objectives.

During the resumption of trading, we discussed: which is more worth investing in, house or stock? Several players think that the house is definitely better, because it is safer and more reliable, it can be sold to gain added value, rented out to bring rent, and at worst it can be occupied.

Twenty years ago, when Mr. Robert Toru Kiyosaki proposed that his house was in debt in his book Rich Dad and Poor Dad, everyone thought he was crazy and talking nonsense. Yes, this is indeed a counterintuitive view. Then let's analyze, is the house an asset or a liability?

Define assets and liabilities first. If something can bring me continuous positive cash flow, it is certainly an asset. If something requires me to pay for it at multiple levels, it is obviously a debt.

A house can be used for two purposes: self-occupation and rental, and there are two ways to buy it: full payment and mortgage. They can be divided into four situations. Let's analyze it separately.

No mortgage, no rent, no cash flow. This house is just a fixed asset, which may increase in value or decrease in value.

You need to repay the mortgage every month, you can't receive the rent, and the monthly cash flow needs to flow out. At this time, it is debt.

You don't need to pay the mortgage every month, but you can receive the rent every month and have positive cash flow. This is an asset.

Divided into two situations:

If the rent can cover the mortgage, the cash flow is positive and it is an asset.

When the rent can't pay the mortgage, the cash flow is negative, which is a liability.

It can be seen that the house can be divided into five situations, one is fixed assets, the other is assets, and the other is liabilities.

So, look at the house you own. Is this a good investment? Is it an asset, or does it look like a liability of an asset? Or simply fixed assets, no cash flow. So is he a good investment?

Some friends may say: I don't care about the inflow and outflow of funds every month. It's all small money. What I care about is the appreciation of the house. Who cares about mortgage when its price rises by two, three or even ten times?

Indeed, after 20 or 30 years of vigorous development, people in China generally have confidence in real estate. However, looking at the world and history, will the house really continue to increase in value? Will real estate prices really go up forever? If house prices rise forever, where does the subprime crisis come from?

You know, the number one killer of personal bankruptcy in the world is real estate. Because, as long as leverage is not used, the stock will only fall to zero again; And the property may fall below the down payment price, but you still have to pay the monthly payment at the original price. This is why in the subprime mortgage crisis, tens of millions of people's houses were foreclosed, which even triggered the financial crisis all over the world.

Of course, I am not pessimistic about the real estate market in China. On the contrary, I have great confidence in the real estate of nine core cities in China. For a detailed analysis of the real estate market, please read the previous article: On Real Estate Investment. The previous discussion is only for analysis: what is an asset and what is a liability?

This tangible property is not necessarily our asset. We should analyze it from the perspective of cash flow and see its true face, because the liabilities held by the middle class are often self-righteous assets.

Sure enough, it exceeded the standard again. This is a game with excessive cash flow, and it is also a summary and sharing of the game. But I am very happy: in every game, I can experience life and financial quotient repeatedly; Every time you exceed the standard, you can constantly break through your cognition and enhance your cognition.