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20 12 what is the trend and market of China real estate? Will macro-control affect the prospects of the real estate industry?

& lt From the local "two sessions" to see the road map of 20 12 real estate regulation >. Source: Securities Daily Author: Li Muzi

Editor's Note: Since the 5th session of the 10th CPPCC in Hebei Province was opened, the curtain of the 20 12 National Local People's Congress has been opened one after another, and people's livelihood issues related to real estate have become the focus. Will the purchase restriction be loosened? Will the coverage of affordable housing expand? Will the property tax pilot program be further improved? A series of questions were repeatedly mentioned at the meeting. Judging from the information transmitted now, it is difficult to relax the purchase restriction policy in the short term, and the construction of affordable housing continues to advance, and the coverage is expected to gradually expand. However, the real estate policy and the market trend will still face a long-term game, and the house price in 20 12 is expected to sing the main theme of "stability and decline". Today, this newspaper made a summary of the policies and trends related to real estate of the local two associations, and found out the basic trend and context of real estate policies this year.

Beijing: Adhere to the goal of "stable and declining" housing price control.

Regarding the statement that "social security and tax payment will be changed to three years for foreigners to buy a house for five consecutive years", the deputy mayor said that "this is impossible"

Yang Bin, director of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, revealed when the Municipal People's Congress participated in the Fengtai delegation's deliberation on the government work report that the affordable housing in Beijing is expected to be "closed", and the affordable housing can only be sold to the government, and then the government will resell it to the waiting families. At this point, Beijing is expected to become the second city to realize the closed operation of affordable housing after Shenzhen.

In 2007, Beijing promulgated a new "Administrative Measures for Affordable Housing". Yang Bin said that once closed operation is implemented, "new measures for new houses and old measures for old houses" will be implemented. "When the affordable housing in places like Huilongguan is sold, the government encourages individuals to buy it, and the price is not much different from the market price at that time." Yang Bin said that it would be unfair to include that part of affordable housing in the "closed operation".

Affordable housing and price-limited housing can be sold at market prices, which leads some people who should not be guaranteed to enter the affordable housing market for profit. At present, there are two kinds of affordable housing. Before April 2008, affordable housing only needed to pay 10% more comprehensive land price than commercial housing, which made a considerable number of affordable housing over five years into commercial housing in recent years.

Yang Bin said that according to the current policy, affordable housing can be listed and traded at the market price after five years, and the housing used for security may become a means of profit. "The so-called closed operation means that the distribution, lease and transfer of affordable housing must go through the government and cannot be bought and sold by the holders themselves." If the holder intends to transfer the affordable housing that has reached the age of five years, it can only be sold to the government, and then the government will resell it to the waiting families, so that the affordable housing can be "internally circulated" among eligible waiting families.

At the same time, Beijing will vigorously develop public rental housing, and the construction, distribution, operation and management of low-rent housing and public rental housing will be integrated. The construction area of a single set of public rental housing is mainly small units of about 40 square meters, and the standard of controlling the construction area of a single set of affordable housing within 60 square meters is strictly implemented. In view of the price difference between price-limited housing and commercial housing, the Municipal Housing Construction Committee proposed to improve and perfect the price-limited housing construction and pricing mechanism. In terms of distribution management, a unified management information system will be established to audit the economic and housing conditions of families applying for affordable housing, so as to realize dynamic data management and real-time audit.

The ongoing real estate control policy will not be relaxed. Guo Jinlong, the mayor of Beijing, pointed out in the government work report that in 20 12 years, policies and measures to curb speculative investment demand will continue to be strictly implemented to promote the reasonable return of housing prices. At the same time, Chen Gang, vice mayor of Beijing, made it clear that the real estate control policy will not change this year, and Beijing will continue to adhere to the goal of "stable and declining" housing price control. Regarding the statement that "social security and tax payment will be changed to three years for foreigners to buy a house for five consecutive years", Chen Gang said that "this is impossible".

Beijing has proposed 20 12 to study and launch the "residence permit" system. According to this system, buyers with Beijing residence permit can purchase the first or improved housing according to the standards of Beijing residents as long as they meet the requirements of working years in Beijing and have a stable job. (Li Muzi)

"Steady and declining" is the first price control target put forward by Beijing last year. Beijing is no longer alone this year, and Shanghai has joined the team.

At the "two sessions" held in Shanghai a few days ago, Shanghai Mayor Han Zheng said, "This year, Shanghai will implement the central government's policies and measures to strengthen the regulation of the real estate market, increase the supply of ordinary commercial housing, adjust the housing standards of ordinary commodities, improve the real estate tax reform pilot of individual housing, promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and realize a steady and declining price of new housing throughout the year."

Han Zheng pointed out that Shanghai's real estate market prices are too high, and the regulation of the real estate market will remain unchanged this year. We should continue to intensify our work and fully implement a series of policies and measures on the regulation of the real estate market at the Central Economic Work Conference.

As for the purchase restriction, Shanghai will continue to strictly enforce it. Earlier, the Shanghai Municipal Government Information Office announced that in 20 12, Shanghai will continue to strengthen real estate regulation and control and continue to implement the housing purchase restriction policy. However, during the two sessions, Shanghai announced the adjustment of ordinary commodity housing standards. The standard of ordinary commodity housing within the inner ring is adjusted to less than 3.3 million yuan per set, less than 2 million yuan between the inner ring and the outer ring, and less than 6.5438+0.6 million yuan outside the outer ring.

The adjustment of ordinary commodity housing standards will directly reduce the taxes and fees of buyers and sellers and stimulate the property market to be active. Zhang Hongwei, director of Tongce Consulting and Research Center, pointed out that the adjustment of housing standards for ordinary commodities in Shanghai and other places reflects the characteristics of "tight outside and loose inside" in property market regulation. Some experts also believe that the adjustment of ordinary housing standards should not be misunderstood as a "bailout" measure by local governments, and there is no need to worry too much about boosting housing prices. Appropriate release of rigid demand will not cause tight market supply.

While continuing to strictly implement the real estate control policy, Shanghai has also broadened the distribution threshold of affordable housing. Under the background of tight supply of affordable housing in Shanghai, the access standard of affordable housing in Shanghai will be greatly relaxed again this year. Shanghai plans to relax the threshold for applying for property houses from 3,300 yuan per month to 5,000 yuan per household. That is, when the average monthly income of a couple in a family of three is below 7500 yuan, they can enter the application ranks. This is actually to attract more working-class and white-collar youth into the security system. After the second batch of affordable housing placement was completed last year, all districts and counties need to start the application acceptance of this year's new standards in time.

To increase the proportion of low-rent housing in kind, Liu Haisheng, director of the Municipal Housing Security and Housing Management Bureau, said that relevant departments are working with various functional departments to focus on promoting quality educational resources and medical resources, as well as the entry of large commercial facilities into large residential areas.

At the same time, the housing policy is tilted towards talents. Han Zheng said that there will be some special policies to strengthen housing security this year, such as further relaxing the ownership of housing, and the benefits will be extended to the working class and small white-collar workers. In addition, for some excellent talents, you can rent them first and then sell them. "For example, if you have lived in an apartment for 10 years, you can buy it with lower money." (Li Muzi)

Guangdong: Public rental housing encourages units below 30 square meters.

At the first press conference held at the Fifth Session of the 11th Guangdong Provincial People's Congress on June 5438+1October 65438+April 4, Fang, director of the Guangdong Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, pointed out that the current planning of public rental housing area is about 40 square meters, but we hope that the smaller the apartment type, the better, and encourage those below 30 square meters. The small room area is to promote the users of public rental housing to quit public rental housing after their family conditions improve, so that those in need can recycle it.

He also said that Guangdong's real estate regulation has achieved initial results. From June 65438+ 10 to June 165438+ 10 last year, the average price of residential goods in Guangdong province was 7607 yuan/square meter, up 7.54% compared with 20 10, but the increase rate narrowed by 2 percentage points. The housing prices of 2 1 cities above the prefecture level in Guangdong were all newly built that year. As the national regulatory policy has not changed, it is estimated that this downward trend of housing prices may continue further.

It is also stressed that the government wants to keep the market healthy and relatively stable. "We don't want house prices to rise and fall, which may not be a good result for the whole economic situation and the whole society."

Fang also said, "The area of public rental housing is about 40 square meters in the planning, but we hope that the apartment type will be as small as possible and encourage those below 30 square meters to be better. Just like those public housing in Hong Kong, some are more than ten or twenty square meters. " He also pointed out that the small room area is to promote users of public rental housing to quit public rental housing after their family conditions improve, so that those in need can recycle it.

According to the data of Guangdong Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, in 20 1 1 year, Guangdong started to build 330,000 sets of various types of affordable housing (including rental subsidies), exceeding the annual target. Among them, there are 209,000 sets of public rental housing, 26,000 sets of low-rent housing, 65,438+3,000 sets of affordable housing, 49,000 sets of price-limited housing, 33,000 sets of resettlement houses in shanty towns, and the rental subsidy is 0.9 1 10,000. Last year, Guangdong newly completed affordable housing 1 14000 sets, accounting for about 1/3 of the newly started construction scale.

This year's government work report requires that Guangdong should build 143900 sets of affordable housing, which is nearly half less than last year. However, Fang pointed out that more than 300,000 sets of affordable housing started last year will continue to be built this year, so the task is still quite heavy. He said that our province will increase financial input, and governments at all levels should also increase their efforts, and at the same time give play to the role of social funds to build affordable housing through multiple channels.

At present, Guangdong Province is formulating an innovative plan for the reform of the housing security system. After the pilot projects in Guangzhou and Zhongshan, it is planned to be introduced in the first quarter of this year, and all localities will also introduce their own plans before June this year. The biggest highlight is the clarity of the public rental housing system.

Regarding the rent level of public rental housing, Fang said, "The rent will be lower than the market rent, but in general, we should refer to the market price and not be too low." He further emphasized the difference between public rental housing and low-rent housing. Low-rent housing is provided to poor families whose housing income doubles, as long as the rent is 1 yuan/square meter.

Since last year, many units with historical private land have built affordable housing in Guangdong. How to ensure the fairness of the distribution of these houses and how to avoid repeating the mistakes of welfare housing distribution?

Fang said that the unit building must be applied for and approved in accordance with the conditions for applying for public rental housing, and only the local real estate department can approve it. After it is built, how to distribute it should also be supervised. "We have noticed that society is very concerned about this issue. I don't think so. We are particularly concerned about the issue of fairness, and we must seize this issue. " Fang said. (Shen Ming)

The work report of Chongqing municipal government proposes to optimize the regulation of the real estate market in 20 12 years to ensure the stable and healthy operation of the real estate market, and the increase in house prices does not exceed the increase in disposable income of urban households.

Huang, Deputy Secretary of Chongqing Municipal Party Committee, Mayor and Secretary of Chongqing Municipal Party Committee, made a government work report at the fifth meeting of the third Chongqing Municipal People's Congress. He said that on the housing issue, Chongqing has improved the "dual-track" housing supply system that pays equal attention to market supply and government guarantee, and implemented the regulation of "low-end guarantee, middle-end market and high-end constraint". 20 1 1 year, Chongqing has built a total of 287 1 10,000 square meters of public rental housing, with 1 1 10,000 sets, leading the country in scale, progress and supporting level. The house price in the main urban area of Chongqing has always remained at a low level among the 35 key monitoring cities in China.

Huang said that in 20 12 years, Chongqing will optimize the regulation of the real estate market. Local public rental housing will be built13.5 million square meters, with 654.38+10,000 sets. At the same time, strengthen the construction of comprehensive facilities in public rental housing communities, improve the level of community management services, and facilitate people's lives. Chongqing will also implement preferential policies for the first set of housing and improved housing to meet the needs of people for self-occupation and improved housing. Comprehensive use of planning control, land supply, credit tax and other means to ensure the stable and healthy operation of the real estate market, and the increase in house prices does not exceed the increase in disposable income of urban households.

As a kind of property tax, property tax is levied on property owners according to the taxable residual value or rental income of the house. 20 1 1 1, the first individual housing property tax in Chongqing was declared and put into storage locally, and the tax was 6 154.83 yuan. From 20 1 1, 1 and1,individual housing property tax will be levied on eligible single-family commercial houses in the main city. Therefore, Chongqing became the first city in China to levy personal housing property tax on existing housing.

Huang said that property tax is a kind of tax equivalent to foreign property tax and also a kind of property tax. Real estate is not only a capital product, but also a financial product. The most reasonable tax adjustment for capital products and financial products is to levy direct tax, that is, property tax. Everyone should know that real estate regulation involves several aspects, including fiscal and taxation regulation, financial regulation, land regulation, affordable housing regulation, and supply and demand regulation.

Huang also pointed out that "five controls" have their own functions, and one control cannot replace all controls. From the perspective of fiscal regulation, I think the future direction should be to levy direct tax and property tax, that is, property tax. This kind of property tax will reduce speculation, reduce customs clearance and curb all kinds of speculation if it requires people who hold real estate to pay a lot of tax costs. At present, our taxes are too concentrated in the transaction links, such as income tax, value-added tax and business tax. After the tax is collected in the transaction link, all the costs will be piled on the cost of the property, pushing up the house price. In view of this, we suggest to the central government that the Chongqing municipal government is willing to take the property tax as a pilot.

Wang Baoan, Assistant Minister of Finance, said that China will speed up the implementation of property tax, so that it can further play a regulatory role in the operation of the real estate market. He stressed that in the next stage, the relevant departments will improve the tax system according to the actual situation of the real estate market, speed up the formulation of tax policies, pay close attention to summing up the pilot experience of real estate tax in Shanghai and Chongqing, and accelerate the implementation of real estate tax.

He Zhiming, deputy director of Chongqing Finance Bureau, introduced that as of 201130, there were 8,563 houses with property tax taxable in the main city of Chongqing, with a construction area of 265,438+10,000 square meters and an average construction area of 10992 yuan per square meter. Among them, 3,457 sets of single-family commercial houses were purchased before June 28th last year, with a construction area of 1.36 million square meters. At present, the collection of property tax in Chongqing is basically "all receivable", the collection rate is above 99%, and the collection amount exceeds 90 million yuan, which has now reached 1 100 million yuan. A small number of houses that have not paid taxes are mainly property rights certificates that have not been completed and there are property rights disputes. He Zhiming said that all the property tax revenue in Chongqing is used for the construction and maintenance of public rental housing.

Cai Chang, director of the Department of Taxation and Financial Management, School of Taxation, Central University of Finance and Economics, said in an interview with Securities Daily that the tax burden of real estate transactions in China is relatively heavy, which is obvious to all. You can consider appropriately reducing the tax on trading links. Specific suggestions: business tax relief, land value-added tax relief or deferred collection. The second is to appropriately increase the tax on holding links. For example, property tax is generally levied nationwide, and consumers try to calculate and levy land use tax on their own land according to the area and floor area ratio. Secondly, for the real estate that regulates the purchase restriction, the tax rate is appropriately reduced. The tax rate should be increased appropriately for the property that is not limited to purchase. Finally, for real estate enterprises purchasing materials or engineering materials, VAT cannot be deducted at present, so it is suggested to consider deducting relevant taxes and fees. (Ding Xin)

It was learned from the Fifth Session of the 15th Tianjin Municipal People's Congress that this year Tianjin will continue to consolidate the achievements of real estate market regulation and control, and achieve the goal of improving utilization efficiency and increasing effective housing supply by implementing effective management measures such as housing purchase restriction, post-certification supervision and real estate market supervision, so as to ensure the stable, healthy and sustainable development of the city's real estate market.

Tianjin continues to vigorously promote the construction of affordable housing projects 20 12. In order to ensure the successful completion of this year's housing security target, the city has included the land for affordable housing construction in the annual land supply plan in advance to ensure priority supply. Up to now, 46 1 hectare of land for affordable housing construction has been implemented, accounting for 93% of the annual land plan for affordable housing construction.

It is understood that in 20 12 years, the city plans to build affordable housing 10.5 million sets. Including public rental housing10.8 million sets, of which10.8 million sets are planned to be built in six districts in the city and four districts around the city; Binhai New Area has arranged to build 8,000 sets. 7 1 10,000 sets of affordable housing, including 1 10,000 sets of directional resettlement houses for the transformation of "villages in cities" in the central city and 50,000 sets of resettlement houses for demonstration towns; Binhai New Area is scheduled to build 1. 1 0,000 sets. Price-limited commercial housing is 6.5438+0.6 million sets, including 6.5438+0.6 million sets in urban six districts and urban four districts; Binhai New Area has arranged for the construction of 6,000 sets.

This year, Tianjin should accurately grasp macro-control policies and market changes, dynamically monitor and analyze the operation of the city's real estate market, and continue to deepen supervision before and after the certificate. Establish a long-term mechanism to prevent overdue construction, and suspend the land transfer business for districts and counties that have not started construction for a long time, have a large area and have been informed criticism twice in a row. Rely on the supervision system to share supervision information, and realize early detection and early treatment of overdue unfinished projects. At the same time, continue to strengthen market supervision. Strengthen the special governance of intermediary agencies, standardize the industry order of real estate brokerage agencies, and realize the whole process supervision from land transactions to housing sales. In addition, this year, Tianjin will further improve the norms and standards for the supervision and operation of pre-sale funds, and monitor corporate violations such as overdue supervision funds in real time. Standardize the sales behavior of new commercial housing at the opening stage to ensure the standardized operation of commercial housing sales supervision.

It is reported that in 20 1 1 year, the transaction volume of new commercial housing in Tianjin was146.45 million square meters, up 9% year-on-year, and the average transaction price of new commercial housing was 8272 yuan/square meter, down 2.6% year-on-year. New breakthroughs have been made in the supervision of pre-sale funds for new commercial housing, with a supervision area of 24.0383 million square meters and a total supervision amount of 84.063 billion yuan; The city's * * * supervision stock room covers an area of 3,529,700 square meters, with supervision funds reaching 27,683 million yuan. (Shen Ming)

At the Fifth Session of the 11th National People's Congress of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region held in 6543818, Ma Biao, Chairman of the Autonomous Region Government, proposed in his government work report that 43.2 billion yuan would be raised in 20 12 to continue to do a good job in social security, health, education, housing, infrastructure, land improvement, agricultural subsidies, ecology, culture and family planning. Among them, 7.923 billion yuan was raised and 24 1 10,000 sets of affordable housing were started. In order to solve the housing difficulties of rural primary and secondary school teachers in the whole region, we will speed up the construction of public rental housing, low-rent housing, affordable housing and price-limited commodity housing.

Strictly implement the lifelong responsibility system for the quality of affordable housing construction. Improve the distribution, operation, management and supervision mechanism of affordable housing to ensure that low-and middle-income families with housing difficulties benefit. Renovation of 200,000 rural dilapidated houses (including thatched houses), including 25,000 thatched houses by the end of June this year. Continue to implement policy insurance for rural residents' housing.

It is understood that as of 65,438+February last year, 319,500 sets of affordable housing projects in Guangxi have been started (including 45,785 sets of rental subsidies), and 9,774 sets have been completed, with an investment of168.62 million yuan, which has solved the housing problem of 480,000 people.