(Development Research Center of China Geological Survey)
With the continuous acceleration of urbanization in China, more and more people use and transform the existing natural environment, and the urban geological environment is facing unprecedented pressure. Based on the geological data information, database information and user survey of important economic zones, this paper establishes the bearing capacity index system, simulates the spatial pattern of urban development in the study area in a certain period in the future through the analysis of regional bearing capacity based on new technologies, and develops geological data products of important economic zones in order to put forward suggestions for the regional sustainable development of the study area. It also provides basic data and decision-making basis for economic development planning, resource and environmental protection, urban and urban agglomeration layout and social and economic sustainable development of important economic zones in eastern China.
Keywords: development of bearing capacity products in important economic zones
In the past decades, China has made great achievements in economic construction. However, in some large-scale projects in the past, we mainly focused on the construction of the project, which often ignored the overall geological conditions and led to some adverse environmental consequences caused by unreasonable development and utilization of the geological environment. For example, the resource and environment constraints faced by the important economic zones in the east continue to intensify, and it is urgent to continuously improve the comprehensive carrying capacity of resources and environment.
From the perspective of geological work, the carrying capacity of geological resources plays an important role in regional economic development planning, resource and environmental protection, urban and urban agglomeration layout and social and economic sustainable development. Over the years, China has carried out a large number of basic geological surveys, mineral exploration and environmental science research in important economic zones, and obtained a considerable number of research results and various geological data. In order to improve the ability of geological work to serve the national economy and social development, and also to speed up the productization process of geological data and information. Based on the evaluation of the bearing capacity of important economic zones, this study simulates the spatial pattern of urban development in the study area in a certain period in the future, in order to provide services for the economic development planning, resource and environmental protection, urban and urban agglomeration layout and social and economic sustainable development of local and regional economic zones.
1 the concept of geological environment carrying capacity and its influencing factors
1. 1 concept
In China, Meizhou Bay Planning Report (199 1) formally put forward the mature concept of "environmental carrying capacity". It is defined as the limitation of the scale, intensity and speed that a certain environmental state and structure can continue to act on human society without harmful changes to human survival and development, and it is a measure of the basic attributes of the environment and limited self-regulation ability. Later, after many evolutions, it is defined as the overall level of social and economic development that can be carried by the comprehensive conditions such as natural resources, geography and ecological environment of a region (or country) in a certain period, which is often characterized by the number of people it can carry. The carrying capacity here refers to the level achieved under the premise of maintaining the regional resource structure to meet the needs of sustainable development and maintaining the steady-state effect of regional environmental functions. This definition essentially reflects the dialectical relationship between geological environment and human activities, and provides a theoretical basis for the coordinated development of geological environment and human activities.
1.2 influencing factors
From the perspective of regional carrying capacity, regional sustainable development refers to the resources consumed and pollutants discharged by regional development, which must be limited within the threshold of regional resource reserve (recycling cycle of renewable resources and acquisition cycle of alternative resources of non-renewable resources) and environmental bearing capacity. In this sense, regional carrying capacity is the material resources of sustainable development and the ability to accommodate environmental pollution. From another point of view, the factors affecting the carrying capacity should not only cover the background performance of eco-geological environment system, but also include the influence of scientific and technological development level, human activities and factors outside the region. It can be summarized as three systems: geological environment system, ecological environment system and social environment system. According to the characteristics and requirements of the city, the urban geological environment system can be considered from two aspects: geological environment conditions and geological resources. Geological environment conditions involve geographical location, meteorology and hydrology, topography, geological structure and crustal stability, engineering geology, hydrogeology, geological disasters, etc. Geological resources involve natural resources closely related to geological environment, such as land resources, fresh water resources, forest resources, mineral resources and underground energy. The influencing factors of eco-environmental system are mainly analyzed from four aspects: vegetation, soil, water and atmosphere. The social environment system mainly includes population factors, economic factors, scientific and technological factors and management level.
2 product content
The content of this product development is mainly the research on the environmental carrying capacity of the economic zone, including the current situation analysis of various carrying capacity indicators. Bearing capacity index refers to the synthesis of specific concepts and specific values that reflect the overall phenomenon of the system. Any index is to calibrate a certain attribute or characteristic of the system from a quantitative aspect. It is very necessary to evaluate the regional bearing capacity and bearing condition and construct a set of index system with rich content, clear hierarchy and strong pertinence. Indicators can be highly summarized in concise language, and the measurability of indicators is the basis of systematic quantitative research.
According to the characteristics of regional carrying capacity research, the evaluation model system is established through analysis, and various existing evaluation index systems of sustainable development and carrying capacity at home and abroad, such as the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development (UNCSD), the World Bank's sustainable development index system, the evaluation index system adopted by China's sustainable development strategy, and the evaluation index system of regional sustainable development proposed by China Regional Development Report 1999. At the same time, according to the existing data, the established bearing capacity evaluation index system is shown in table 1. It is worth mentioning that taking economic indicators as unit area value is essentially a process of weighted standardization of indicators, which makes the data of each indicator more comparable in space.
Table 1 Evaluation Index System of Regional Carrying Capacity
Note: the desertification intensity index is negative, that is, the higher the index value, the lower the assimilation ability. Except the intensity of desertification, other indicators are positive indicators, that is, the higher the index value, the higher the level of superior indicators.
3 product development methods
Product development must follow certain methods. The product development method discussed below is also the process of product development.
3. 1 analysis of existing geological data products
1) Before developing a certain category of geological data products, it is necessary to make a detailed summary of the existing products and form a summary report.
2) Comprehensively express all the data in the research area where the developed product is located, establish the existing product system of this type of data, and summarize it with maps, databases, software, equipment, literature, etc.
3.2 Product Demand Object Analysis
1) Investigate the area where the product is developed, and fully understand the demand of various industries in this area for the product (including the government, professional geological institutions, electric power, water conservancy, transportation, agriculture and other institutions using geological data and the public).
2) Fully analyze the users of the products to be developed, understand the future service objectives of the products, and define the product development objectives.
3.3 Product User Manual
1) describes the applicable object and service scope of the product.
2) Description of product carrier form, including maps, databases, software, literature reports and formats (Arcgis, MapGIS, Jpeg, Word), etc.
3) Description of original materials and data used in product development.
4) Product content theme and description document.
5) Elaboration of product confidentiality.
4 economic zone product display
4. 1 Current situation of bearing capacity of Bohai Economic Zone
Bohai Rim region is a vast economic region composed of all coastal areas around Bohai Rim. In the report of the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it is proposed to speed up the development and opening up of the Bohai Rim region, which is listed as one of the key areas of national open development. The Bohai Economic Zone includes Liaoning, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong and Bohai Sea. The total land area around Bohai Sea is 565,438+450,000 square kilometers, accounting for 5.4% of the national land area. It is one of the most important cities and industrial clusters in China. In order to make a more detailed analysis of the regional carrying capacity and carrying state, the cities around Bohai Sea are classified and counted according to the present value of each evaluation index (265,438+the value at the beginning of the 20th century), that is, the indicators in each municipal administrative region are counted separately. The most significant of these statistics is the arithmetic average of each index in each municipal administrative region, which shows the average state of this index in this region. The indicators used for statistics include: wind speed grade, precipitation grade, river density grade, forest area percentage, grassland area ratio, desertification intensity, desertification change trend, wetland area ratio, wetland change trend, railway line density grade and highway linear density grade. In addition, in order to comprehensively compare and analyze the carrying capacity (assimilation capacity and supporting capacity) with the carrying status and indicators, the evaluation results indicators of carrying capacity (supply capacity, supporting capacity, assimilation capacity and carrying capacity of ecological resources) are also counted. The distribution degree of each index is summarized as follows:
Non-overloaded areas are mainly distributed in Zhangjiakou, Chengde, Fushun, Benxi, Dandong, Fuxin, Tieling, Chaoyang and Huludao in the Bohai Rim region. The distribution characteristics of each index in the non-overload area are summarized as follows: ① Wind speed grade: the average wind speed in Dandong, Chengde, Benxi and Fushun is the lowest (< 2), and the wind speed in other areas is in the middle (2 ~ 3). ② Precipitation level: the average precipitation in Dandong, Benxi and Fushun is at the highest level (> 4), that in Huludao and Tieling is at the middle level (2 ~ 3), and that in Zhangjiakou, Chengde, Chaoyang and Fuxin is the lowest (1 ~ 2). ③ River density grade: Huludao City is the lowest (about 1.5 on average), Benxi City is the highest (> 4), and other areas are medium (2 ~ 3.5). ④ Highway density grade: The highway system in the non-overloaded area is not very developed. Except for Benxi, which is relatively high (> 3.5), the average highway density in other cities is only medium (2 ~ 3.5). ⑤ Railway density grade: Zhangjiakou's railway system is the least developed, at the lowest level (average < 2), while other areas are only at the middle level (2 ~ 3). ⑥ Forest area: Zhangjiakou, Fuxin and Chaoyang in non-overloaded areas are relatively low, but they have reached more than 15%, and other non-overloaded areas are higher, reaching 78% of Benxi, indicating that the forest coverage area in non-overloaded areas is higher. ⑦ Grassland area: Zhangjiakou, Chaoyang and Chengde are the highest, accounting for nearly 30%, which is also the highest grassland coverage area in Bohai Rim region, with Fuxin accounting for about 12%, while other areas that are not overloaded are relatively low, all below 5%. ⑧ Desertification intensity: Zhangjiakou, Fuxin and Chaoyang are the highest, about 20%, far exceeding the regional average (9. 12%), Tieling is close to the average of 8.46%, and other areas are relatively low. (9) Desertification trend: only Zhangjiakou and Chaoyang City are positive, indicating that the desertification in these two cities has a weakening trend, and the indicators of desertification trend in other areas that are not overloaded are negative, indicating that desertification has deteriorated. ⑩ Wetland area ratio: Except Dandong and Huludao, the wetland area is close to the regional average (9.65%), other areas are lower than the regional average. Wetland change trend: the wetland areas in Zhangjiakou, Fushun, Benxi and Dandong decreased, with Benxi decreasing by 2% and other areas increasing. Carrying capacity of ecological resources: except Fuxin and Tieling, other areas are lower than the regional average level, and the supply capacity of ecological resources in non-overloaded areas is generally low. 3 Assimilation capacity: Except Tieling and Dandong, other areas are far below the regional average level, indicating that the overall self-treatment capacity of pollutants in non-overloaded areas is low.
The heavily overloaded areas are mainly distributed in Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Jinan, Zibo and Qingdao. The development of these areas has seriously exceeded the regional carrying capacity, and they are the key areas for sustainable development planning and transformation. The average characteristics of each index are summarized as follows: ① Wind speed grade: Beijing, Tangshan and Zibo have the lowest annual average wind speed (1 ~ 2), which is not conducive to the diffusion of pollutants in the air; Qingdao, located along the coast, has the highest wind speed (> 4); The average annual wind speed in Tianjin and Jinan is moderate (3 ~ 4). ② Precipitation level: The precipitation level in severely overloaded areas is in the middle level of Grade 2-3. ③ River density grade: except Qingdao, where the average river density is in the middle level, other areas are relatively high (> 4). ④ highway density grade: except Tangshan, there are very developed highway traffic systems (> 4), and the average density of highway system in Tangshan is in the middle level (3 ~ 4). ⑤ Railway density grade: Both Beijing and Tianjin have highly dense railway networks (> 4), while other areas are medium, with railway density grade between 3 and 4, and the overall transportation system in severely overloaded areas is relatively perfect. ⑥ Forest area: Except Beijing, the forest coverage rate in other areas is not high (Zibo 18%), and Beijing is the highest seriously overloaded area, reaching 45%. ⑦ Grassland area: The grassland coverage area in severely overloaded areas is not high. Except for Zibo, which is nearly 15%, other areas are lower than the average level of the whole region (8.46%), and Tianjin even has only 2% grassland coverage. ⑧ Desertification intensity: Except Tianjin and Tangshan, which are close to the average around Bohai Sea (9. 12%), other severely overloaded areas are far below the regional average, and the desertification situation in severely overloaded areas is generally good. 9 Desertification trend: the desertification in Beijing, Tianjin, Zibo and Qingdao is getting worse (the index is negative), while the desertification in Tangshan and Jinan in other two cities is weakened. ⑩ Wetland area ratio: Tianjin, Tangshan, Qingdao and other coastal cities have large wetland areas, which exceed the regional average, while Beijing, Jinan and below are less than half of the average. Wetland change trend: the wetland area in Beijing, Tangshan and Jinan decreased, while the wetland area in Tianjin, Tangshan and Zibo increased, but the change was not significant. Supply capacity of ecological resources: all of them are higher than the regional average level, and the supply capacity of ecological resources is higher in severely overloaded areas. Assimilation ability: The assimilation ability of Beijing and Zibo is much lower than the regional average, while the assimilation ability of other regions is much higher than the regional average.
4.2 Suggestions for sustainable development
Through the above analysis, we can find that, relatively speaking, the evaluation index of assimilation ability in non-overloaded areas is not too high, which leads to the low overall assimilation ability; Seriously overloaded areas are relatively good. Because the ecological footprint method (ecological footprint demand is mainly to calculate the bio-productive land area necessary to maintain resource consumption and waste absorption under certain population and economic scale conditions) uses construction land as the cultivated land with the highest allocation coefficient to calculate the supply capacity of ecological resources, the supply capacity of ecological resources in all severely overloaded areas with high urbanization level is relatively high, while that in non-overloaded areas with relatively low urbanization level is generally low. This calculation result is one-sided and needs to be improved in future research.
Non-overloaded areas also have the following characteristics: ① Excellent green coverage rate (the ratio of forest to grassland area) provides good natural conditions for future development and regional ecological balance. ② The desertification in the non-overloaded area is serious, so it is necessary to strengthen the transformation of the desertification area to prevent the spread of desertification. ③ The transportation (railway, highway) system in non-overloaded areas is underdeveloped as a whole, which limits the allocation of regional resources to some extent. The development of traffic is an important part of the future development of non-overloaded areas and needs priority construction.
Similarly, the following points should be paid attention to in severely overloaded areas: ① Try to reduce economic and social activities with large pollution emissions, especially in super-large cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, and limit the scale of urban development and the number of vehicles as the main source of air pollutants. (2) The wetland is degraded as a whole, and the beaches are reduced, so it is necessary to maintain the existing wetland area and prevent the damage to the regional ecosystem. ③ The coverage rate of vegetation (forest and grassland) in seriously overloaded areas is not high, so it is necessary to strengthen afforestation in these areas and protect the existing vegetation region. In regional planning, according to the shortcomings and advantages of each region, it is very important to put forward appropriate renovation and maintenance programs, which are very important for sustainable development planning.
The essence of this prediction model is to determine its development law under the current development trend to simulate. It can be seen from the forecast results that the development trend of Bohai Rim region is unsustainable, and the excessive use of renewable resources and environmental pollution have brought great pressure to the regional ecosystem, which is higher than the carrying capacity of the regional ecosystem. The increasing carrying capacity will lead to the rapid deterioration of the ecosystem and bring the regional system into a comprehensive crisis. Therefore, according to the above analysis, the following suggestions are put forward: give priority to the development of non-overloaded areas. The non-overloaded areas in the northern part of Bohai Sea mainly include Zhangjiakou and Chengde in Hebei Province and Chaoyang, Fuxin, Tieling, Benxi and Dandong in Liaoning Province. These areas are extremely rich in natural resources such as minerals. More importantly, these areas belong to the old industrial bases in Northeast China, and the industrial infrastructure is good, which provides a good foundation for further development. Focus on improving the overloaded "hardest hit areas": Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Jinan and other big cities, by vigorously rectifying economic and social activities with large sewage discharge, can take advantage of the natural advantages of surrounding areas or other places not to be overloaded, implement strategic shift, actively cultivate high-tech industries, and make regional development change from resource-based to technology-based and improve resource utilization. To limit the development of general overloaded areas, we must plan ahead, and the specific methods can learn from severely overloaded areas to maintain rapid economic growth and adapt the development intensity to the regional carrying capacity.
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