1, based on per capita income to analyze the degree of real estate bubble.
For ordinary income earners, under normal circumstances, house prices have always exceeded their affordability. Therefore, the view that there is a bubble in housing prices derived from per capita income is very popular in the mass market, and it is the main theoretical weapon to break, crash, collapse and chop the party. If the house price is the result of purchasing power competition among effective demand groups, those who fail to reach the threshold are just spectators. In popular words, "the house is not sold to the poor" is embarrassing, but the dream of how many people buy a "reasonable price house" is broken in reality.
2. Determine the price by value and analyze the price level.
The technical school that analyzes housing prices from construction cost, floor price and development cost is highly respected, but it often cannot stand the test of time. The view that supply and demand determine prices is generally unpopular. Even if it is admitted occasionally, it is more to insist on the argument that supply exceeds demand, accompanied by the crusade against real estate speculators. In short, sellers are too black-hearted to buy the wrong price, which is the main source of power for the campaign of not buying a house. But in reality, its members can't escape the fate of "prisoner's dilemma"-the main reason is that when their purchasing power reaches the threshold, they need to abandon the organization.
3. Ignore the relative scarcity of land to analyze housing prices.
The scarcity of land for housing is the main factor to determine the price and trend, which is generally considered to be a nonsense view. The mainstream view is that houses are just a pile of reinforced concrete urns, and high housing prices are hype.
Question 1. There is little difference in construction cost between houses in Shenzhen and Yumen. Why is the price one in the sky and the other in the ground?
Question 2: Why did Shenzhen and Yumen's house prices rise rapidly and the other one plummeted?
Question 3: Why don't the real estate speculators go to Yumen to bargain-hunting, but go shopping in Shenzhen?
Question 4: Shenzhen and Yumen, which city has an inflated housing price bubble?
4. Ignore the value of housing performance to analyze the degree of demand rigidity.
Generally speaking, the residential function of owner-occupied housing (which can be provided by renting a house) is emphasized, while the performance of owner-occupied housing is ignored or denied, such as convenient marriage and childbearing, better quality of life and higher sense of accomplishment. Various reasons for not buying a house can also be cited. However, in reality, many renters are angry because they can't afford to buy a house.
5. Buy/sell money for stock trading and buy foreign currency.
Although there are many stock gods in the forum (basically no firm offer is posted), compared with the property market and the gold market, the China stock market is often crying everywhere.
People who look down on China's economy tend to buy foreign currency for the purpose of avoiding risks in real estate, but they have fallen behind in recent years.
6. Adopt antagonistic game mode.
And developers, banks, intermediaries, just don't give them a little advantage, standing in the buyer's point of view is understandable. But in reality, the seller is obviously unwilling to provide a chance to win for the buyer who is unwilling to make profits.
Even moderately old-fashioned, it has always been despised by morality. However, in reality, it is often another situation. In the process of inflation, filial parents' savings have been looted by people who manage their finances properly, which may also include hateful real estate speculators and old mortgage owners. Fat water flows into the fields of the wicked. Parents worry that their children can't afford to buy a house, and they may not be filial. For people who buy a house, the process of getting married, buying a house and having children is relatively complete, and life is a bit difficult. Maybe parents are more at ease, but they are not necessarily unfilial.
7. pin the hope of buying a house on the group or the head.
Expect Bao Xiao and Xiao Qiang to take care of people's livelihood to curb housing prices? Reminds me of the feudal era, when fools were wronged, they either expected the justice of Master Qingtian or the salvation of the knight errant. To say the least, just because you give your fate to others doesn't mean that others can play with you at will.
8. pin the hope of buying a house on holding real estate and vomiting blood for sale.
As soon as house prices show signs of falling, developers, real estate speculators, house slaves, etc. Can't help jumping off a building and selling a house is cheap?
Won't they adopt the strategy of reducing supply and increasing quantity knowing that they will lose money?
Are they fragile enough to be caught after a toss?
Are they so unfamiliar with industry rules and inexperienced that they are stupid enough to be slaughtered?
Be careful not to watch the drama of jumping off a building, and turn the bench upside down, thin guy.
9. pin the hope of buying a house on economic crisis, war, earthquake and terrorist activities.
When the economic crisis comes, will mankind be helpless and expect the economy to return to primitive society overnight?
When war, earthquake and terrorist activities come, is it important to save your life or bargain-hunting?
10, blindly copying the experience of other countries to analyze the trend of the property market
No one can prove that the history of property market depression in Japan, Hong Kong and Hainan has been replicated in every country or region on earth.
1 1, analyze the trend of the property market with the stock market model.
Will the property market rise today and fall tomorrow, just like the stock market?
Can the property market be like the stock market, fast-forward and fast-out, buying and selling at will?
Practice has proved that buying a house at a low price is either professional or blind.
12, ignoring inflation and analyzing the trend of house price and rent.
"Go up, go up, have the ability to go up to 65,438+10,000/flat", and inflation has made this kind of venting discourse a reality. Inflation makes it extremely depressing to buy a house in full, and it also makes it troublesome to repay the loan in advance.
It has become a laughing stock to calculate the rental-sales ratio without considering inflation.
13, unable to grasp the development stage of the property market from a macro perspective.
The initial stage of the development of the property market is actually very short, that is, 10 years.
With eyes open, developers sell buildings within the Third Ring Road;
As soon as they close their eyes, developers will sell buildings within the Fifth Ring Road;
Turn a blind eye, developers sell buildings in satellite cities;
Alas, there is no land in the city center. Occasionally, the price of opening a new offer is too high, and you have to rely on relationships and luck to grab it.
Buy as soon as you can afford it. This proposal is an important basis for the criticism of housing trust in the past decade. However, bloody facts prove that at this stage, the location is much more important than the band.
14, fooled by people who don't have a house
There are many great immortals who predict the housing market on the forum, and a large part of them may not even step on the threshold of the sales office, but this does not affect his confidence in the management of the housing market, nor does it affect the fanaticism of believers. When it comes to verification, it's okay to abandon the building and run away. Niu Daxian coldly said to the victims who came to complain: "They are all adults and will not make their own decisions." I told you to eat shit, and you ate it? " .
The advice provided by people who have never bought a house is trustworthy and implemented without hesitation?
(The above answers were published on 20 13-06-09. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )
When buying a new house, go to Sohu Focus.