The economic development of the United States is close to saturation. This is said from three starting points. The three starting points are the three pillar industries in the United States: construction, automobiles and information and communication. So we should slowly see why these three industries are close to saturation. First, the construction industry. The most important industry in American construction industry is real estate. The development of the real estate industry has driven the development of the entire American construction industry, so the real estate industry is a pillar industry in the United States. As we all know, the financial crisis in the United States has severely hit the real estate industry. From 200 1 to 2005, the real estate price in the United States has indeed been rising, nearly doubling, with an appreciation of $30 trillion, with an average annual increase of 15%. In some cities on the west coast of the United States, house prices rose by 50% in 2005 alone. This has stimulated many people to borrow money to buy houses beyond their ability to pay. The more people borrow money, the higher the house price. However, by 2006, the situation had changed. In June 2004, the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates 17 times. At this time, the interest rate soared to 5.25%. The increased repayment burden makes many people unable to continue to repay loans, and a large number of "subprime" loan customers go bankrupt. The direct loss of mortgage is very small compared with the US 13 trillion GDP and the 25 trillion debt market. At present, the size of the Fed's capital injection into the financial system has exceeded 2 trillion US dollars, which is larger than the stock size of the subprime mortgage market. The cumulative capital injection scale of central banks such as the European Central Bank has also exceeded 1 trillion US dollars. Let's take a look at the current situation. The per capita property owned by American citizens has actually reached 2.3 units/person, and there are nearly 40 units per person 10. Due to the collapse of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, these properties are still in the hands of a few citizens. House prices in the United States have not actually risen so far, and people have no funds to buy real estate. Therefore, the real estate market is close to saturation. These attributes will seriously affect the future per capita GDP of the United States. Secondly, talk about the information and communication industry, including mobile phones, PCs, networks and so on. Look at the data below. According to CTIA data, there are about 262 million mobile phone numbers in the United States, and the mobile phone market is close to saturation, because about 85% of consumers own mobile phones. In order to expand its business, communication companies have introduced preferential sales schemes including mobile phones, wired phones, broadband networks and cable TV. The popularity of mobile phones has also affected the traditional wired telephone market. With the economic downturn, many people simply return their wired mobile phones in order to save money. The largest telecom operator at & amp； T At present, there are only 60.4 million traditional wired telephone users, which is less than 10% compared with 68.7 million two years ago. However, in&; T's mobile phone business has increased, with the total number of door numbers reaching 71.4000. Verizon and Vodafone, the second largest mobile phone operators in the United States, currently have about 68.7 million Verizon numbers; Verizon's traditional wired telephone users are also decreasing, with only 40.5 million. Since the beginning of this year, the growth of Verizon's mobile phone business has slowed down significantly. In the first quarter and the second quarter of this year, the number of Verizon accounts increased by 6,543.8+0.5 million respectively, far less than the growth of 2 million new customers in the fourth quarter of last year. In order to compete for the nearly saturated market, the communication industry has continuously introduced new preferential schemes. Communication companies and broadband and cable TV companies are also poaching from each other, offering preferential packages for mobile phones, cable phones, broadband networks and cable TV services.
And the PC market. Look at the two major computer companies in America. On August 16, Dell and Hewlett-Packard, two major PC manufacturers in the United States, released quarterly financial reports respectively, and their profits dropped sharply compared with the same period last year. Especially since the beginning of the year, Dell has taken the lead in launching a price war in the American market by taking advantage of its cost, and its performance has become the focus of market attention, which has the nature of industry indicators. After a round of battles, Dell has successfully increased its market share in the increasingly fierce PC market competition with its direct sales model. According to statistics, in the second quarter of this year, Dell sold 4 million PCs worldwide and 2.53 million PCs in the US market, ranking first in the sales list, which opened the gap with its competitors. However, in order to expand the market share, Dell drastically reduced the product price. As a result, the shipment increased, the sales volume almost turned around, and all the profits were given to consumers, and they did not get any real benefits. Fiorina, the female president of Hewlett-Packard Company, also said with emotion: "Before 20 12, we can't see any signs of PC market recovery." It has been suggested that the world has entered the "post-PC era" at present, and the development of the network makes the PC enter the saturation state ahead of schedule. At present, the number of personal computers in the world has reached 500 million, and the penetration rate of personal computers in the United States has reached 55%. It is difficult to improve rapidly in the next few years. Roger of American International Data Corporation said: "There will be fewer and fewer new users of personal computers. Anyone who wants to buy a computer and can afford it already has it. " Indeed, the undeniable fact is that PC has gradually stepped out of the aura of high-tech products and become a commodity with serious inventory, similar to VCD in China. Finally, let's take a look at the American automobile industry. The American automobile industry has a long history. Look at the table below. Percentage of sales of automobile enterprises/brands in 2009% of sales in 2008% of average daily sales in 2009% of average daily sales in 2008 Subaru15.4438+06,652187,6588+05.50566606273,3979,488 Hyundai 8.2008888886 7428128-15.3838+0971Volvo-15.9438+0.43573.6438+002-15+5055555. Lexus-65438361-17.812,2372,722 Honda-18.631.045,061/kloc-. 174 1, 957,575-20.615,0466,356 BMW-21.12196,502249, Because of what? Because the number of cars in the United States has reached an astonishing 246 million. However, the number of scrapped cars in the United States this year is more than that produced. This number will continue to decline and rarely rise. The automobile market is now a car-free market, so it is close to saturation. From these three pillar industries, we can see that the American market is close to saturation, and the economic development of a country is basically carried out from market development. Therefore, the American economy is close to saturation.