□ Our reporter Chen Yingying
"The new LPR mechanism has landed, and we are waiting for instructions from the Head Office. The news I got is that the next real estate loan, whether it is a housing development loan or a personal mortgage loan, will definitely increase in price. " Li Yang (a pseudonym), the relevant person in charge of a state-owned bank Ningbo Branch, told the china securities journal reporter.
China securities journal reporter learned exclusively that the CBRC had previously decided to carry out special inspections of bank real estate business in 32 cities, and now it has entered the stage of bank risk self-inspection.
In fact, in the second half of the year, the relevant regulatory authorities repeatedly "beat" the risks of real estate loans and excessive financing in the real estate industry. Experts and analysts predict that it will be difficult to relax housing financing through bank and non-bank channels, especially for the local overheating of the real estate market in some cities, and the regulatory policies will remain tight. It is expected that the financing cost of housing enterprises will soon increase, and the credit risk differentiation of housing enterprises will further intensify.
Supervise "knocking" banks and conduct strict self-inspection.
Bank real estate loan business has always been the focus of the regulatory authorities. A few days ago, the general office of the China Banking Regulatory Commission reported the on-site inspection of some local small and medium-sized banking institutions, and once again "named" banks to provide financing for real estate projects with complete "four certificates" and to issue loans to real estate projects with insufficient capital.
People close to the regulatory authorities told reporters that the regulatory authorities will soon disclose the punishment results for violations found on the spot, and it is expected that the punishment will be very strict. In fact, in July this year, the Alashan Supervision Branch of the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued two tickets: two employees of China Bank were banned from banking business for life because they issued real estate development loans to enterprises with incomplete "four certificates".
A number of bankers told reporters that "prohibiting lifelong banking work" is a relatively rare top penalty, which largely shows the determination of the regulatory authorities to rectify the chaos in the real estate loan field and prevent the real estate bubble and financialization.
Li Yang, who is preparing to receive the inspection team of the Head Office, told the reporter: "In addition to the real estate credit business and risks, the focus of the self-inspection requested by the Head Office this time is the investment of wealth management funds and interbank funds in the real estate field, and whether there is any disguised financing for the land purchase fees of real estate enterprises. Once the problem is found, it is not only a fine, but also may have an impact on some new business access of the branch. "
Shrinking orders and raising interest rates
Real estate loans have always been the bulk of bank credit, but in the new economic situation, the regulatory policy is strict, and commercial banks have to adjust the credit structure and choose the best. This can be seen from the recent interim report of 20 19 Bank: the growth rate of real estate loans of some state-owned banks has declined. The growth rate of real estate loans of ICBC and Agricultural Bank of China in the first half of the year decreased by two percentage points compared with the same period of 20 18.
For the next real estate loans, especially housing development loans, the attitude of the "big family" CCB is also very clear. Ji Zhihong, vice president of CCB, said that CCB has been strictly implementing the regulatory policy orientation of "housing and not speculating" and prudently promoting the real estate development loan business. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of CCB's real estate development loans decreased year-on-year. In the next step, CCB will continue to adjust the loan structure according to the guidance of regulatory policies, adhere to the principles of differentiation, prudence and merit-based, further tighten the access standards for real estate development loans, ensure the compliant development of real estate development loans, and strengthen supervision over the use of funds.
When interviewing the heads of banks in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and other regions, the reporter also got a similar response, saying that the development loans of real estate enterprises have long been controlled by the list system. It is expected that the scope of the list may be further narrowed, or some local branches may be granted the right to develop loans.
In addition to the narrowing of the list, many bankers expect that the pricing of housing development loans will also increase rapidly under the influence of factors such as stricter supervision and the landing of the new LPR mechanism. Li Yang said that for local housing enterprises or housing enterprises with strong expansion momentum, the bank's loan interest rate has risen by more than 50% in the benchmark interest rate, and there is still the possibility of upward adjustment in the future.
Re-differentiation of credit risk of housing enterprises
In addition to banking channels, many bankers admit that the current financing requirements of housing enterprises through off-balance-sheet and entrusted loans are: First, they must penetrate the underlying assets; Second, trust companies must actively manage.
Under the high pressure of supervision, bank channels, non-bank channels and bond financing of housing enterprises have been tightened in the second half of the year, and the future is hard to be optimistic.
In its latest report, Moody's said that stricter supervision on overseas bond issuance and trust loan financing will put pressure on the liquidity of China real estate developers and widen the difference in credit status among developers. Yang Yuying, assistant vice president of Moody's, predicted: "Developers with weak liquidity, large exposure to trust loans or small business scale will face pressure, while developers with strong credit strength and liquidity may gain more market share from weaker peers."
Li Qilin, chief economist of Lianxun Securities, bluntly said that the winter of housing financing has arrived. If the follow-up non-standard financing is further tightened, the real estate industry may have a "28" differentiation. The financing of large-scale housing enterprises will also be tightened, and more high-cost financing channels will be selected.
For housing enterprises, there are two kinds of risks that need to be avoided in the future: First, the risks of monetary funds and debts (especially short-term debts) are relatively low. If the self-owned funds are small in scale and rely too much on external financing, the credit risk will be greater. Second, there is a risk of insufficient land reserves and active land acquisition. Real estate sales are in a downward trend, the ability of subsequent repayment may not be so strong, external financing is tight, and it may be more difficult for housing enterprises to operate.
Li Qilin said that in coping strategies, housing enterprises should first pay attention to controlling the expansion speed and reserve cash flow in advance to "spend the winter". In the case that the supervision completely blocks the financing channels of real estate debt, it is inevitable that the industry differentiation will intensify. In the future, we can find peers and financial institutions that have mutual advantages and can borrow from each other to cooperate and develop together, thus alleviating the negative impact of financing tightening to some extent.