The scope is gradually expanding. Before August, the main affected enterprises were those exporting to the US and European markets. 9. 10, enterprises exported outside the US and European markets began to be affected, and some enterprises exported to Japan, South Korea and other countries were also affected, with orders falling and customer capital chains broken. The degree is getting worse. Orders showed a downward trend before August, and the decline began to increase in September. /kloc-some enterprises did not have orders in October. The export of some small and medium-sized enterprises showed an obvious downward trend.
Labor-intensive industries are the hardest hit. The downstream industries of real estate such as metallurgy, building materials and furniture, and industries such as clothing and handicrafts are most affected, and there are "off-season" phenomena such as falling orders, insufficient operating rate, and large year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter declines in exports.
Cause analysis of export decline
The decline in the growth rate of orders and exports of small and medium-sized enterprises in China is undoubtedly the direct cause of the decline in overseas demand, especially domestic demand in developed countries such as the United States and Europe, but there are also the following specific factors that cannot be ignored:
The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly. Since the beginning of the year, the prices of oil, steel and other bulk raw materials have fluctuated greatly, and export commodities cannot be sold at the original price. Many enterprises either cut prices or increase their inventories, resulting in huge losses. The export cost is difficult to calculate. Due to the large fluctuation of raw material prices and exchange rates, many enterprises, especially those with long production cycle, are unable to measure their export costs and are in an embarrassing situation of being afraid to take orders. For example, a building materials enterprise in Liaoyang is exported to Europe and America, and there is a demand for foreign real estate auxiliary materials. It seems strange, but it is not surprising, because the price of building materials fell sharply before and after the National Day, and the exchange rate of RMB against the euro appreciated too fast.
The reputation of the importer has declined. On the one hand, the financial crisis has caused many foreign importers to break their funds and reduce their credit, making it difficult to raise funds from banks and open letters of credit; On the other hand, due to the decline of the other party's credit, domestic export enterprises use more letters of credit and prepayments, which also leads to the failure of many transactions and the reduction of orders. For example, an enterprise did not receive payment for dye chemicals exported to Indonesia for more than four months, and dared not take orders easily. The whole month of 10 was in a state of suspension.
Foreign banks occupy customers' settlement funds. The financial crisis has sharply reduced the liquidity of foreign banks and frequently occupied customers' settlement funds, which not only affects the capital turnover of export enterprises, but also brings psychological pressure to export enterprises, making them more cautious when signing supply contracts. Enterprises must consider the credit status of importers and other settlement banks when accepting orders.
Financing is still very difficult. Recently, monetary policy has been loosened, and some special policies have been made for small and medium-sized enterprises. However, the financing problems of some SMEs have not been improved. After receiving the order, they have no funds to produce or organize the supply of goods, and there is a phenomenon of "no money for taking the order", which also leads to a sharp increase in private lending, export advance payment and "receipt". Doubt about the stability of the policy. Although the country has recently introduced a series of support measures such as increasing export tax rebate, many enterprises, especially those with long production cycle, are still afraid of policy changes and dare not accept big orders or sign long contracts.
How to deal with the decline in exports
Taking advantage of the weakening of inflation, we should actively adjust the structure, change the growth mode, expand domestic demand, increase the driving force of consumption and investment on economic growth, maintain the basic stability of domestic prices of bulk raw materials, and achieve steady and rapid economic development.
Consolidate the old market and open up new fields. More actively explore the markets of emerging economies such as Russia, India and Brazil.
Promote the merger of similar small and medium-sized enterprises and encourage qualified enterprises to go abroad. Accelerate the implementation of value-added tax reform, reduce repeated taxation factors, reduce investment costs, and encourage investment, especially investment in technological transformation. Strengthen cooperation between banks and enterprises and improve financial services. On the one hand, banks should provide more consulting services for export enterprises, such as the credit status of importers' banks, on the other hand, they should provide financial support for enterprises to carry out technological transformation and structural adjustment. Improve foreign exchange management. Increase support and stabilize preferential policies.