The property market is sick, very sick. This triggered another argument. Some people think that the characteristics of large fluctuations in real estate are not suitable for shouldering the heavy responsibility of pillar industries; Some people think that the current soaring housing prices are caused by blindly promoting real estate as a pillar industry; Some people even questioned the industry category of "real estate" again, thinking that the real estate industry has never been an independent industry. In fact, the current real estate market has gone far beyond our previous understanding, becoming confusing and even incredible.
Under the background of rapid economic development and drastic changes in China, the real estate market is undergoing profound changes, showing the characteristics of short-term speculation in the stock market, financialization of market operation and globalization of market players.
Short-term speculation in the stock market
As we all know, real estate is real estate with high value. The amount of a single transaction is millions or tens of millions, so the sale and transfer should be cautious. However, today's real estate transactions are extremely hot and short-term speculation is frequent. Shanghai people, who are famous for their shrewdness, have to be picky about food and bargain at the market. Buying a house has become a dish in the basket. Dare to pay money without looking at the house, even dare to buy the yellow mud of the drawings. Apart from the stock market in the early 1990s and the property market in recent two years, this "chip grabbing" scene seems to have only appeared twice over the years.
Rumors spread frequently, and the old lady who doesn't understand ABC in the property market is full of speculation, but the so-called insiders have repeatedly stepped on the air. This story is almost a copy of the stock market in the past. Is it possible for the property market to clone the stock market and stage the final madness?
It is not that the stock market is better than the stock market, but that all kinds of strange phenomena in the property market are exactly the same as the stock market. Overdraft stock trading has long been stopped by the stock market, but the so-called "mortgage" is also a credit transaction, but it is a conventional weapon for real estate speculation. Applying the stock market trick to speculate on real estate and forcibly converting the real estate market into the stock market highlights the apparent contradiction in the real estate market.
However, the property market is not a stock market, and the main function of housing is to live rather than invest, not to speculate. The real estate market will not evolve into a capital market, and the risk of real estate speculation is no less than that of stock speculation. The inherent liquidity risk of real estate makes it much more difficult to realize it than stocks. Playing the game of "delivering parcels" in the real estate market requires more than just grabbing the runway unique martial arts like the stock market. If it is negative assets, the pain may be worse than the stock market. The end of "broken families" is just sweeping the floor, but the burden of negative assets is difficult to carry back and get rid of.
Financialization of market operation
It is an open secret that the operation of the real estate market depends on finance. Not to mention that the so-called real estate tycoons played the trick of "carrying rice in empty sacks" in the early years, and even the money for buying land came from the bank. Even today, developers who follow the rules often rely on bank funds as high as 60% to 70%. Consumers in the real estate market also rely on bank loans. Although most people who have the strength to buy a house get rich first, those who don't need or despise loans are rare. Even the Wenzhou real estate speculators who swept across the country also used the multiplier effect of loans to speculate in real estate.
Statistics show that the proportion of bank loans for Wenzhou people to buy houses far exceeds the market average. The financial operation of the property market has become a common phenomenon, and the short-term speculation in the above-mentioned stock market is one of its manifestations. Moreover, shine on you is better than Blue, and the property market also has its own financial "original products", such as "refinancing".
The close relationship between real estate and finance is generally understood as follows: all parties in the real estate market, including sellers, buyers and real estate speculators, are inseparable from financial support, and the financing channel is single and limited to bank loans; At the same time, real estate has also become the largest customer and high-quality asset of banks, and has become a "flood discharge area" for the expansion of bank deposits.
In fact, behind the above appearance, the real estate market has acted as a financial decompressor, and in recent years, it has excessively absorbed a large amount of money issued by banks, which is one of the reasonable explanations for the continuous rise in housing prices, and Xiao He has also suffered losses.
Real estate and banks are highly dependent on each other, which can indeed produce a win-win situation in the rising market stage, but the rise in house prices is accompanied by the continuous accumulation of risks. In a sense, the relationship between real estate risk and financial risk is like a chicken and an egg, or simply two sides of a coin, which are mutually causal and difficult to distinguish.
When the real estate risk may be transformed into financial risk, the result can only be to transfer the risk back to the real estate market again, thus making the real estate market in a state of adjustment or even depression for a long time. The ups and downs of the real estate market in Japan and Hong Kong are not far from Yin Jian. This is determined by the different positions and functions of real estate and finance in the modern market economy system, and it is also a contradiction at the meso level faced by the real estate market.
At present, the diversification of real estate financing channels being explored in China will not change the pattern of the market system. On the contrary, it will further promote the financialization of the real estate market, and finance will be more sensitive to the fluctuations and trends of the real estate market, and its restrictive effect on the real estate market will be more obvious.
Globalization of market subject
It is said that economic globalization is a general trend, but the main body of the real estate market has already achieved globalization. Although a large number of China products are still trying to find their way out of the country, the completely open real estate market welcomes investors and speculators from all over the world. In the high-end market, non-local residents have gradually gained the upper hand, and large quantities of imports and exports have almost become the "patents" of non-local residents.
However, the so-called international metropolis like Shanghai has a limited geographical area and is only a tiny place in the eyes of capital predators, or in the language of the stock market, the Shanghai property market is a "high-quality small-cap stock". The amount of funds entering the property market is too large, and the market trend is bound to skyrocket and plummet.
Market players have been globalized, and market funds come from all over the country, even from international hot money. However, real estate is essentially only a regional market. The contradiction between globalization and regionalism leads to the imbalance between supply and demand, which is the imbalance between high liquidity surplus capital and non-renewable land resources in the long run. The scarcity of land resources is the weakness of the property market in China's big cities, and it is also one of the most important factors that restrict urban development. Senior government officials have long warned of this.
Shanghai's government work reports for two consecutive years have emphasized the restrictive role of land resources in economic development. At the end of last year, the core of the two bottlenecks affecting Shanghai's development-suburban land and urban relocation-was land scarcity. Beijing, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have all used up the land targets of the Tenth Five-Year Plan.
The contradiction between man and land is widespread in our country. Last year, the current round of national macro-control took land as one of the main means of macro-control for the first time, and the tightening of "monetary policy" and "land root" had a negative stimulating effect on housing prices. This year, the national macro-control has once again targeted at the real estate market, and solving the problem of excessive increase in the scale and price of real estate investment has become a prominent task in strengthening macro-control at present.
The contradiction of the real estate market reflects the structural contradiction of China's macro-economy, while the contradiction between man and land is the original contradiction of the real estate market and the deep-seated contradiction that the real estate market has been facing for a long time.