At 2 pm on August 12, Shen Hua, who was about to change cars, went to the Oriental Ji Ye Automobile City near the East Fifth Ring Road in Beijing to see the car, but unexpectedly found that "no one bought a car" except him.
This is an American brand 4S shop, covering an area of about 2000 square meters. The shop was empty, and the young salespeople got together to chat and kill time. When Shen Hua proposed to test drive, the sales staff were not interested, saying that the test drive was under maintenance and there was a traffic jam nearby, and refused his request.
"They don't think they can make a deal." Shen Hua told Future Auto Daily (ID: auto-time) with certainty. He came to Yaojiayuan to see cars about a year ago, and the store at that time was a different scene. "At that time, the store was full of people (to see the car), and I wanted to find a seat to have a rest."
In just one year, it was "judged as two stores".
"I can't live any longer. I'm looking for new opportunities." Wang Hao, a post-90s salesman, has worked in a car dealership in Guangzhou for almost two years. "There are only three sales in the store now, and there were seven or eight at the end of last year." . With a basic salary of 2000 yuan, Wang Hao, who has tried his best, can only sell one car at most a month. "There is a 4S shop nearby, which sold a lot a while ago."
The once prosperous automobile market seems to have really changed. In 2020, with an epidemic, the global automobile industry slipped into a trough, and the frozen automobile market made dealers suffer a lot. According to the statistics of china automobile dealers association (hereinafter referred to as "Circulation Association"), from June 5438 to September this year, the inventory early warning index of national automobile dealers was higher than the threshold by 50% for nine consecutive months, reaching the highest level of 8 1.2%, and the pressure on dealers was obvious.
Under pressure is elimination. According to the data of circulation association, in the first half of this year, 10 19 4S stores withdrew from the network one after another, and nearly 30,000 dealers, only 2 1.5% achieved sales growth, and the profit was less than 30%.
It's not just the tailors who have a hard time. Zheng Tong Automobile and Dong Run Automobile, which once ranked among the top 100 dealer groups, also suffered from financial crisis and were on the verge of bankruptcy and liquidation.
"When the wind comes, pigs can fly. The wind stopped and a bunch of pigs fell dead. " Practitioners tacitly realize that, unlike the setbacks they encounter, the current crisis is fatal if it is not handled well.
Jingnan Automobile Park is located outside the South Sixth Ring Road in Beijing, which is very remote. There is no subway to the urban area within 5 kilometers from Fiona Fang. Jingnan Automobile Park is also 5.8 kilometers away from the nearest Yinghai subway station. After 6: 30 in the evening, you can't get a taxi back to the city without increasing the fare.
Although Jingnan Automobile Park covers a small area, it has gathered many brand dealers' stores, including Jingchengyue Automobile, which represents Geely, and Zhongcheng Automobile, which sells BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Volkswagen, Volvo and Weimar.
Beijing Huaxiangqiao Toyota 4S Store Daxing Branch is also here. Not long ago, Huaxiangqiao Head Office, located on the edge of the Fourth Ring Road, was forced to close, and the business of this Toyota 4S store was merged into this branch far from the city.
"Land prices have risen sharply every year, and rental expenses account for a large part of the expenses of 4S stores, at least 30%-40%." A sales manager who has been selling cars for more than 10 years told the reporter of Future Auto Daily that this year, many 4S stores were forced to move from the city center to the remote Fifth Ring Road due to rent pressure.
The days after the relocation are obviously hard for the naked eye. During the whole afternoon's visit to Future Auto Daily, I didn't meet a consumer who came to consult about buying a car. The above-mentioned sales staff said that since the beginning of this year, the number of people coming to the store to see cars has decreased significantly. Even after the epidemic eased, the number of people who went to the store to see cars was far from last year's level.
Cars are really hard to sell this year. According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, in the first half of 2020, the national automobile sales totaled 10256900, down 169 1% year-on-year. Among them, passenger cars dropped by as much as 22.42% year-on-year, and only 7,872,500 vehicles were sold.
The banker closest to the gunshot is at the autumn outpost. According to the data of the circulation association, in the first half of this year, the gross profit margin of new cars in the automobile industry suddenly dropped to -3.5%, and the sales revenue of dealers was only 37.6% of that of 20 19. Among them, over 80% (83.7%) dealers have price inversion, which is further expanded compared with 79.9% in 20 19.
This means that from the perspective of sales revenue alone, the more cars dealers sell, the more they lose. Thousands of dealers who can't bear the pressure have quit the network, or have already had the idea of quitting. Zhou Zheng is one of them.
"The store is too expensive. The epidemic has been going on for months, and the rent has dried up. Eight months (rent) is as high as more than 700 thousand. There are two brothers in my shop. " In an interview with Future Auto Daily, Zhou Zheng, 36, looked sad.
After 20 13 lost a large sum of money on the second-hand car, he set up a secondary dealership covering an area of more than 700 square meters in Daxing District, Beijing, and now it can't be opened.
In the 1990s, cars were still luxury goods in China, and the concepts of car dealers and 4S stores had not yet appeared. The hidden gold mine of "helping car companies sell cars" has not been discovered.
People in the industry told Future Auto Daily that before the dealer group was really established, auto repair shops around the country barely played the role of dealerships, and auto companies would send people to the auto repair shops to guide shop assistants to repair cars and replace parts. "At that time, there were very few people who could afford a car, mainly for corporate procurement."
Later, some auto repair shops that had been cooperating with the OEM hung the sign of "a special maintenance station for a certain automobile brand" at the door and became the earliest dealers.
Signs should not be hung casually. Xu Kai, who once worked in a "special maintenance station of American General Motors" in Beijing, told Future Auto Daily: "It takes hundreds of thousands of yuan to apply for one."
The "oil and water" in the pit is very rich. "At that time, the wage earners (technicians) in the pit often gave bonuses, and everyone got red envelopes and secretly stuffed them in the bed for others to see. It was a thick stack, "Xu Kai recalled. "This is the best period of China automobile industry."
Since 1990s, luxury car brands such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW have also penetrated into China. At that time, consumers who could afford these cars basically gathered in first-tier cities such as Beishangguang. Agents in these cities can often get the general agent authorization of luxury brands in China directly.
In February, 20001,the first Porsche Center in Chinese mainland opened in Chang 'an Avenue, marking the official entry of Porsche into the China market. Behind it is the Porsche dealer Jebsen Group.
From 200 1 to 2007, Jebsen's sales accounted for almost 100% of the total sales in Porsche Mainland. It is rumored that Porsche's original name Porsche is pronounced "timely" instead of "agile" in German or English, and Porsche's Chinese name "agile" is taken from Jebsen Group, which shows its importance.
The first decade of the 20th century (2 1) was a decade of rapid development of China automobile market. Car sales increased from more than 2 million vehicles in 2000 to 1806 1900 vehicles in 2065. Dealers who represent major automobile brands also earn a lot of money.
"At the most brilliant time, the dealership opened one and earned one." Industry insiders told the reporter of Future Auto Daily that in 20 10, if you want to invest in opening a luxury brand dealership, the dealer needs to prepare at least 200 million yuan of principal, but this cycle usually takes only half a year to return the capital, and it can even be shortened to 3 months at the earliest, and then it will be pure profit.
It is also common for consumers to buy cars at a higher price. Industry insiders recall that around 20 10, Audi A4, Audi A6, BMW 5 Series and other hot-selling models are hard to find, and the price increase can exceed 15% at most, and all profits go to dealers.
In this era, arachis duranensis reached its peak with the listing of huge groups. On April 28th, 2065438+0/KLOC-0, as the first auto dealer to land in A-shares, on the first day of its opening, Huge Group jumped to the top of the global auto dealers with a market value of 50174.4 billion yuan.
Zhao Jun, an OEM who visited the huge Tangshan headquarters around 20 1 1, told Future Auto Daily (ID: auto-time) that the huge sales staff gave people "the most obvious feeling is deep pockets".
Although nearly ten years have passed, Zhao Junhui still remembers the scene at that time: at a dinner party of more than ten people, a burly sales manager hung a big gold chain around his neck, patting his chest and saying, "There are no customers we can't handle" with a loud voice.
This statement is correct. At that time, Pangda had won the agency rights of Jaguar Land Rover, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volvo and other high-end brands in many markets in China, and the limelight was the same.
Dealers make a lot of money. If you want to get on this ship, you must buy tickets and pay tuition.
Zhang Nan, who was in charge of dealer management in a German luxury brand manufacturer, told the reporter of Future Auto Daily that in the heyday (around 20 12 years), dealers had to pay more than100,000 yuan of "public relations expenses" (excluding the expenses of establishing stores and training employees) to obtain the authorization of a luxury brand store. Some car companies also require dealers to have government resources, which is also one of the conditions for hard joining.
In addition, some manufacturers also require dealers and investors to own multiple plots of land in cities that apply for authorization to open stores, and the area of each plot of land has fixed requirements. Finally, according to the traffic and passenger flow nearby, the manufacturer chooses a piece of land to open a shop.
"Car companies can really be so horizontal at their best. These are the most basic requirements. " Between words, Zhang Nan reveals his feelings about that golden age from time to time.
Dealers generally need to reserve 1.5 months' inventory to open stores. After the manufacturer distributes the car to the dealer, the dealer needs to transfer the money to the designated account as soon as possible after receiving the notice. People familiar with the OEM network development (dealer network development) process told the reporter of Future Auto Daily that some manufacturers are very demanding and require dealers to pay in full within 3-5 working days after receiving the email.
Although the pressure is great, for dealers, winning the authorization to open a store is equivalent to getting the golden key to open a treasure house. Under the temptation of "Qian Jing", dealer bosses will spend whatever they want and be wronged, as long as they can open their stores.
In order to dilute the cost and gain more benefits, major dealer groups began to expand their stores crazily, striving to win more automobile brand agency rights, thus forming a monopoly on the regional market.
The data shows that in 20 1 1 year, the number of stores opened by Zhongsheng Group nearly doubled one year after listing; By the end of 20 1 1, the number of 4S stores and distribution outlets of Huge Group was 66 1 and 1257 respectively, and by the end of 20 12, these two figures soared to 754 and1429; In 20 12, China Automobile also added 1 15 4S stores, reaching 394, with an increase of nearly 40% in one year.
On the other hand, the automobile market is on the rise, and manufacturers raise their sales targets every year. This also forces dealers to open more stores and cover the contact points of selling cars to a broader market. However, since 20 12, dealers are reluctant to continue to open stores, and manufacturers are begging to open stores.
Since then, the market trend has quietly changed. In contrast to the number of dealer stores, the growth rate of automobile sales has slowed down significantly. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in 20 1 1 year, China achieved automobile production and sales of 184 18900 vehicles and 18505 1000 vehicles, with a slight increase of 0.84% and 2.45% respectively.
There are more and more shops, but cars cannot be sold. Dealer groups, including huge ones, all have hidden worries coming at the same time, and the shortage of funds has formed a huge network from which dealers cannot escape.
The inflection point will appear soon.
At the beginning of 2065438+2002, Mercedes-Benz S-Class with manufacturer's guide price of 930,000 yuan was greatly reduced by the government, with a total discount of 200,000 yuan, and the highest profit margin reached 380,000 yuan. The difference is enough to buy another mid-range mercedes benz c-class car.
Crazy price reduction is to quickly digest the backlog of inventory. Some car companies that have noticed the crisis have launched a "dealer mapping action"-checking the real inventory of dealers, thus piercing the "false bubble" of sales data and formulating more rational sales targets.
But later stories show that no one wants to slow down the pace of making money, and the whole industry continues to run blindfolded.
In order to encourage dealers to sell cars, manufacturers have set up various rebate policies and incentive schemes with different gradients. Generally speaking, dealers can get about 1-2 points (1%-2%) of the approved sales amount (car purchase approval fee of the manufacturer) when 100% achieves the annual sales target.
For a time, achieving the sales target and getting the rebate became the most important thing. Dealers began to approve cars on a large scale. If the sales target set by the manufacturer is 65,438+000 vehicles, the dealer will set a higher sales target and then negotiate with the manufacturer to get a lower wholesale price.
Initially selling cars, dealers earned "the difference between purchase and sale". For example, the dealer bought a car with a guide price of 6.5438+0 million yuan from the manufacturer at a preferential price of 95%, and then sold it at 6.5438+0 million yuan, and each car earned a "50,000 yuan difference".
However, with the increasing trend of dealers "fighting for sales volume and price war", the "bid-ask difference" has been shrinking.
"Sales and after-sales are the bulk of dealers' profits. From about 20 1 1, the profit contribution of selling cars decreased year by year, while the profit proportion of manufacturers' rebates increased year by year. By about 20 15, the profit of the dealership in sales basically depends on the manufacturer's rebate, and some stores can even account for 100%. " Zhang Nanxiang recalled to the Future Auto Daily that "selling cars does not make money, and it depends on manufacturers' rebate subsidies".
Under the almost crazy market sentiment, the risks are gradually exposed. Some dealerships with extremely tight cash flow seem to be unable to survive, but they still take risks and continue to borrow more money and buy more cars.
"Everyone is betting on the sales rebate of the manufacturer, and then using the rebate to make up for the loss," an insider of the car company who is familiar with this operation told Future Auto Daily.
According to the above sources, dealers will try their best to rush, even if they are "oversold"-unsold cars will be invoiced first. "As long as the information is input and the system determines that the car is sold, it can be counted in the performance and the dealer can get the rebate."
Gambling is doomed to lose and win. Unfortunately, gambling is lost most of the time. 20 18 the automobile consumption market in China declined for the first time in 20 years. The sales data of car companies turned sharply, and dealers also tasted the bitter fruit.
In 20 18, due to the tight capital chain, the huge group was forced to transfer its 15 4S stores, five of which were Mercedes-Benz brand 4S stores, and the latter returned a huge amount of money12.53 million yuan. The transferred 4S store is not unprofitable, and its total net profit in 20 17 years reaches 1. 1 100 million yuan, accounting for half of the net profit of the huge group.
At the beginning of 20 19, a huge performance forecast was released, saying that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 20 18 was expected to be a loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan. Then respond to the inquiry of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the huge loss is because the company is eager to clean up the inventory and sell it at a discount; Moreover, the purchase of new cars is not up to standard, and we can't get all the preferential policies of the manufacturers.
In the end, because the debt of 6.5438+0.7 million yuan was not paid, the huge group finally embarked on the road of bankruptcy and reorganization.
As soon as the news came out, the entire dealer industry was silent. In 20 19 years, 57.6% dealers' inventory coefficient was above the warning line of 1.5; 4% dealers' inventory coefficient exceeds 3, which seriously exceeds the standard.
For dealers who represent traditional automobile brands, there are internal worries and more foreign troubles.
The data shows that from June to September in 5438 this year, Weilai Automobile delivered a total of 26,375 vehicles, of which 4,708 vehicles were delivered in September, a year-on-year increase of 133.2%. In September, the deliveries of Li and Xpeng cars also reached a new high, reaching 3,504 and 3,478 respectively. While the monthly sales of Tesla in China market is stable at the level of 1 10,000 vehicles.
The strong growth in sales of new car-making head enterprises has taken away a lot of shares that belong to traditional brands. Different from the latter, most of the new forces advocate direct selling mode in sales.
For a long time, China's automobile circulation market has been implementing the "authorized sales" system, and the main engine factory has a strong bond with the authorized 4S stores, so it is difficult for unauthorized market participants to enter the automobile circulation market. Under this relatively closed channel system, dealers are labeled as "raising the price to pick up the car", "forced bundling" and "poor after-sales service".
The new forces represented by Tesla stood on the opposite side of this model. As early as 2008, Tesla opened its first direct store in the United States.
According to CEO elon musk's vision, Tesla can directly face consumers through direct stores, thus eliminating the information asymmetry under the traditional dealer model. Consumers no longer need to bargain with sellers, and car companies, as the only sellers, not only have the initiative to adjust prices (not affected by dealer factors), but also gain more profit space.
This model has been sought after by many new car manufacturers in China, such as Weilai, Tucki and Weimar. Among them, Weilai, who is good at user operation, has made the service a feature of the experience store.
Lin Lei is an employee of a new automobile manufacturing enterprise in China. Not long ago, he went to Shanghai Xingye taikoo hui Weilai NIO House to experience. He was quite excited to describe to Future Auto Daily that Weilai's service was "very enthusiastic" and he could drink coffee for free when he arrived at the store. "Coffee also has flowers." To his surprise, he will send a car model after the test drive. Compared with the experience of his own company's direct store, Wei Lai made him "flattered".
According to the analysis of Essence Securities, this direct selling mode bypasses the middlemen, directly obtains the customer's data information and feedback, and adjusts the products in time to make them more suitable for the customer's needs, which can improve the competitiveness of the products and enhance the user's recognition of the brand. In terms of car payment, the direct selling mode of "payment first and delivery later" not only effectively reduces the cost pressure brought by vehicle inventory, but also relieves some financial pressure.
Traditional OEMs are not indifferent, but have also made corresponding changes. In July this year, SAIC-GM's Buick electric vehicle business has started direct operation. Consumers can watch, book and pay for cars online through Buick iBuick APP, and then dealers provide users with services such as test ride, test drive and after-sales maintenance.
Volkswagen Group has also made innovations in the sales methods of electric vehicles. In May this year, Volkswagen Group announced that dealers will no longer be the main sales points of ID series electric vehicles, and this series of vehicles will focus more on online sales-users place orders online, and dealers are responsible for providing sales consultation, test drive, transaction processing, vehicle handover, etc.
This change is not easy, not only the dealers will instinctively reject it and put pressure on the manufacturers, but also many OEM employees are very resistant to the direct selling model. A partner in the online distribution department of the OEM said that the new retail system such as direct sales directly affects the online distribution department of the OEM, which may be optimized and reorganized. "This is equivalent to directly breaking the financial path of others."
But whether you like it or not, the "barbarian" knock on the door has sounded and a wave of shuffling is beginning.
In order to survive, dealers began to find a way out. Auto Trade City, which is "savagely growing" in the fourth and fifth tier cities, has become good friends of some 4S stores.
Different from the sales model of 4S stores, there are various ways to purchase goods in Auto Trade City. They often have no formal authorization from car companies. The car source mainly buys cars in batches from 4S shops and sends "yellow cattle" to various regions to transfer goods. There are many used cars and refurbished cars from unknown sources.
"We will sell those cars in stock and cars with unpopular colors to Auto Trade City in batches. Of course, the wholesale price we give to Auto Trade City is also lower than the market price. " The sales manager of a Honda 4S store in Baoding, Hebei Province revealed to Future Auto Daily. Families with few 4S stores and limited consumption level in the fourth and fifth tier cities will choose Auto Trade City as the first choice for car purchase.
In addition to "asking for directions" in the auto trade city, the single-store operation of "doing fine and fine" has also become the transformation idea of some dealers.
Different from the large-scale expansion of dealer groups, single-store operation refers to an investor opening one store or several stores. Usually, the owner of a single store can communicate directly with the manufacturer. If the car sells well, they will have greater rights to negotiate with the manufacturers and have stronger self-driving force in operation.
A real case learned by Future Auto Daily is that a single-store dealer in a third-tier city in the south will never have more than three sales consultants working at the same time. According to the free shift arrangement, employees spend most of their time in the store, running outside and exploring users in the countryside. The boss's way of motivating employees is also "simple and rude": the store manager and the sales manager will give part of their rebate bonus to the sales consultant.
Affected by the number of people receiving goods, the single-store model can only stay in the stage of "small but beautiful", and the road to transformation for group dealers occupying most of the market is not clear.
Is direct selling the future? Will dealers disappear? "Future Auto Daily" threw these two questions to all interviewees, but the answers were quite different.
Some people have a firm attitude: "the traditional dealer model is not working, and direct selling is the trend"; However, some people firmly believe that "dealers are unavoidable", because the markets in different regions are very different, and it is difficult for a main engine factory to take care of all aspects. "A case study shows that it takes at least one year for a manufacturer to truly understand and integrate into local culture and circles and establish a trust relationship from scratch."
Building trust with potential customers is one of the things that Gogo is good at. As a senior sales manager with more than ten years' experience and served luxury brands, he knows how to maintain clues and take orders. But this year, if the car can't be sold, Gao will only get a basic salary of about 6,000 yuan per month, and there is no commission at all.
On the last day of September, when Future Auto Daily visited the Toyota 4S store where Gogo was located, he sold more than 200,000 China Toyota Garments. "The guests have been in contact for more than five months and have been hesitating to compare various brands. Finally, I booked this because there was a demand for cars on the eleventh. "
In addition to this customer, Gogo has many potential trading clues, each of which he carefully maintains. "Some customers are like this. Maybe you introduced a lot and the relationship has been maintained for a long time, but he just doesn't want to buy it. " Gogo comforted himself, "it doesn't matter. Maybe one day he wants to buy a car or a friend wants to buy a car, and he will think of you. "
Gogo is still insisting, but Wang Hao's mind is no longer selling cars. His eyes shifted to the broader after-sales field of the market. "I'm going to open an auto repair shop with my friends to do auto maintenance." Wang Hao told Future Auto Daily that after years of sales, I still have some savings in my hands, and I also have some accumulation in resources such as spare parts channels. "Now the location of the new car shop has been chosen. If it goes well, it can be opened early next year. "
Future dealers will not disappear, and salespeople don't know. What they care about and want to grasp is the life in front of them.
(At the request of the interviewee, all the characters in the text are pseudonyms. )
Author | Zhang Peng
Edit | Travel