BRIC stock markets have performed differently since 20 10. By the end of February, 20 10 and 65438+20, the BOVESPA index in Sao Paulo, Brazil fell 1.93%, the RTSI index in Russia rose by 20.42%, the sensitivity index in Mumbai, India rose 13.88%, and the Shanghai Composite Index in China fell12.98. In 20 13 years, the cumulative increase of MSCI BRIC index was 3.46%, which was lower than the increase of S&P 500 index 1 1.84% in the same period.
At this meeting, the BRICS cooperation mechanism was initially formed. After discussion, the four countries decided to absorb South Africa to form the BRICS. As it happens, the English initials of South Africa are S, which happens to be the plural of BRICS. It seems that there is providence.
Now that the leaders of the five countries have got together for the first time, there is naturally a lot to say. The most important issue is undoubtedly the economy. After the financial crisis, the risk warning of the double dip in the world economy has not been lifted, and central banks all over the world are under pressure to raise interest rates. At this moment, the leaders of the five countries can coordinate economic policies and deepen economic and trade cooperation, which is not only beneficial to their respective economic development, but also beneficial to the world economy.
As a major emerging market country, BRICS countries account for 26% of the world territory, 42% of the world population, 20% of the world GDP, 15% of the world trade volume, and contribute about 50% to the world economic growth. According to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund, from 2006 to 2008, the economic parity growth rate of the four countries was 10.7%. With the rapid economic growth of the four countries, their international influence is increasing day by day.
O 'Neill was overjoyed by the hot sale of the BRIC concept, so he launched the so-called "Golden Diamond Eleven Countries" while the iron was hot, including Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Korea, Vietnam, Turkey, the Philippines, Egypt, Pakistan, Iran and Bangladesh, 1 1 emerging economies.
Subsequently, HSBC also joined the "Emerging Choir" and proposed that the future global economy will belong to "civet cats", namely Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa, which have enviable population structure and huge growth potential.
Aishia, chief economist of BBVA, introduced the concept of "emerging and growth-oriented economies" to china securities journal, and selected the "shortlist" according to its contribution to global economic growth year by year. Today, in addition to the BRIC countries, the list also includes South Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, Egypt and Taiwan Province Province of China. Compared with "Golden Diamond 1 1 country" and "Cimao 6 countries", the leading emerging economies emphasize the dynamic concept based on the absolute value of economic growth and have clear standards.
The lively and extraordinary "emerging choir" is interpreting a trend; That is, networking has promoted the process of globalization, reduced the transaction costs of global investors, and changed the learning curve of economic development. Then the crisis era gave emerging economies a broader performance stage, which gradually transformed the "single goose flock" mode that Japan guided the industrial transfer in the Asia-Pacific region in the second half of the last century into a "multi-flowered goose flock".
This has also pushed up the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which measures the stock markets of emerging economies. As of 20 12 and 12,20, its cumulative increase has reached 12.28%, which is much higher than the 7.82% increase of MSCI World Index, which measures the stock market performance of developed economies.
China, Russia, India and Pakistan unanimously agreed to accept South Africa as a full member to join the BRICS cooperation mechanism. Perhaps more emerging economies will join the cooperation mechanism in the future.
20 10 is undoubtedly lucky for South Africa. In the middle of the year, the "vuvuzela" World Cup made fans around the world remember this vibrant African country; At the end of the year, another gift marked South Africa as "the fifth BRICS country".
Eight years after the concept was put forward, in June 2009, the leaders of the four countries met for the first time in Yekaterinburg, Russia, and the BRIC countries evolved into an economic cooperation mechanism. 20 10 in April, the second BRICS summit was held in Brazil, and the cooperation between the four countries went further.
According to Blue Book 20 13 of BRICS Development Report of Emerging Economies published by China Social Sciences Literature Publishing House on March 26th, "in 20 12 years, the total economic output of BRICS countries accounts for about 25% of the world economic output, and the total trade volume accounts for about 17% of the world total. In 20 12, the total trade volume between China and Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa reached 300 billion US dollars.
With the gradual formation of the BRICS cooperation mechanism, the BRIC countries, as representatives of emerging economies in the world, are increasingly influential internationally.
South Africa's Business Daily believes that South Africa, as the most influential African country in the world, can better represent the interests of African countries and seek greater international cooperation space for African economic development by joining the BRICS cooperation mechanism.
Some experts question whether South Africa meets the standards of BRICS countries. BRIC countries are based on their rapid economic growth and relatively large population. According to the data of the World Bank in 2009, the economic scale of South Africa ranks 3 1 in the world, which is less than a quarter of that of Russia, the smallest economy in BRIC countries.
However, some analysts said that in view of South Africa's important position in Africa, inviting South Africa to join the EU will be a win-win move for the cooperation mechanism between South Africa and BRICS countries.
O 'Neill, who first put forward the concept of BRIC, wrote in the Financial Times that there are currently more than 40 countries on the African continent, none of which can be compared with BRIC. But if these 40 countries are regarded as a whole, the growth potential of the African continent's economic scale can be comparable to that of the BRIC countries.
South Africa is the largest economy and one of the most influential countries in Africa, and its GDP accounts for about one third of the total economic output of sub-Saharan African countries, which has played an important leading role in regional economic development.
Data show that South Africa is the largest energy producer and consumer in Africa, and also the largest producer of gold, platinum and palladium, and its position in the world market cannot be ignored. In addition, enterprises related to South Africa play an important role in Africa's finance, electricity, telecommunications, construction, agriculture and other industries. It is also the African representative of many important international organizations. It was once the only African member of the G8 +5 dialogue between the leaders of the G8 and developing countries, and now it is the only African member of the G20.
It is precisely because South Africa is the representative of the African continent in many aspects that its accession will further expand the international influence of the BRICS cooperation mechanism and will become the gateway for BRICS countries to enter Africa.
In addition, economic cooperation will also promote the political cooperation between BRIC countries and African countries, thus enhancing the voice of emerging market countries in dealing with international issues.
"BRIC" is about to become history, and a more broadly representative "BRIC" will be on the international stage. With the maturity of BRICS cooperation mechanism, more emerging economies may join in the future, and BRICS countries with greatly increased "weight" will play a more important role in international political and economic affairs.
Although this move was first proposed by Russia and made after full consultations among the four countries, South Africa was invited to join the BRIC countries for geopolitical reasons rather than economic relations.
Although South Africa is the largest economy on the African continent (at the same time, China is also South Africa's largest trading partner), its economy is still very small. In 2009, South Africa's total population was 49.32 million, and its GDP was 288.848 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.6% compared with 276.274 billion US dollars in 2008. The South African government predicts that the GDP growth rate of South Africa will reach 3% in 20 10, including the contribution of the World Cup in South Africa to economic growth of 0.5%. Gordan, the finance minister of South Africa, recently predicted that the GDP growth rate of South Africa from 20 1 1 to 20 13 would be 3.5%, 4. 1% and 4.4% respectively.
South Africa's economic scale is far less than 30% of Russia, the smallest of the BRIC countries, and its economic growth rate is not as good as the average level of ASEAN. On the other hand, in terms of per capita GDP, South Africa has reached $5,857 in 2009, far exceeding the average level of emerging economies and entering the ranks of more developed countries. Therefore, inviting South Africa to join the BRICS countries should not be considered from the perspective of economic development level.
According to the original intention of Jim O 'Neill, who first invented the term "BRIC", Indonesia is more qualified to be invited to join the BRICS group than South Africa in terms of population size and economic development speed.
Regardless of population size, economic scale or economic growth rate, Indonesia is the largest economy in ASEAN; Indonesia has far surpassed South Africa. More importantly, BRIC countries have attracted global attention because they are the "leaders" of emerging economies. Judging from the stage of national economic development, Indonesia belongs to an emerging economy, while South Africa is already a relatively developed country.