I. Land market
Second, market observation.
Third, policy guidance.
Four. Hsbc's view
I. Land market
Following the transaction of 20 1 1 2 cases of residential land in Baoding City on August 8, since March, residential land in Baoding City has been traded 1 case. The plot is located in the south of Tianwei West Road and the west of Shengli Street, with a transaction area of 8.60 14 hectare and a transaction price of1288,000 yuan, equivalent to a unit price of 997,300 yuan/mu.
Second, market observation.
(1) Market overview
1, market changes:
At this stage, there is no big fluctuation in the market, and there is no obvious sign of cooling in the market; However, some projects in the market have poor sales, which is different from the situation that all projects were hot before August and September of 20 10. Since mid-March, the number of customers in most business departments has decreased to varying degrees compared with that in February and early March, which can be considered as the beginning of the cold market. There are several reasons for this situation: first, the market supply has increased greatly, and there are several projects to choose from in various areas of the urban area, which has greatly relaxed the choice of customers, making some projects with poor basic conditions begin to receive cold reception; Second, the government's regulatory measures have effectively prevented some buyers from entering the market from purchasing power; Third, the frequent introduction of regulatory policies has affected some buyers' judgment on market trends and aggravated their wait-and-see mentality of holding money.
Second-hand housing transactions: Recently, the volume of second-hand housing in the market is not high, and some stores visit once a week; Since the second half of last year, there has been a substantial increase in new auction houses in second-hand houses, and speculative customers in Baoding market have grown rapidly. From this, it can be concluded that some transactions of newly-built first-hand houses have certain bubble components.
The prices of most major projects were raised in March, but compared with the price increases in 1 and February, there was a trend of differentiation. For projects with small price increase: sufficient housing or new houses in March, a small increase can be regarded as cautious optimism and tentative increase of developers. Projects with large price increases: for example, the government upgraded 500 yuan, Shuixie Flower City upgraded 400 yuan, Xinxin Wenyayuan upgraded 500 yuan, and Xincheng upgraded 400 yuan. The background of the sharp price increase of these projects is that the projects have collected a large amount of funds and the repayment pressure is relatively small. At the same time, there is a certain gap between the market price of the previous project and the expected profit of the developer, so the developer urgently needs to improve the profit rate.
The sales of different buildings vary greatly. Some properties are hot after the new push, but some projects are not ideal. Hot sale: Huachuang Mansion opened about 200 apartments with new units on the 27th, with a turnover of 60% on that day; Stable sales: Park Bay sold more than 90 sets in March, and the monthly turnover remained stable at more than 60 sets in the past three months, with a slight increase in March. Items with poor sales: Jiayuan Shuiyuanwan's new sales cards in March were very general, and only a dozen VIP cards were sold; The West Lake Manor (newly-built residence) began to reduce its price two weeks after its opening, which was lower than the original average opening price by 300 yuan.
Newly listed preheating projects in February and March
Name, location, preheating price and expected opening time of the building.
There is no preheating price in South Balizhuang, Lianchi South Street, Ruifang Huafu from April to May.
There is no preheating price in Beiguan Village of Ruiteng Amethyst City in mid-April.
Huafengyuan County North Street 3800 North Road Vehicle Administration Office in mid-April
Ivy Waterfront International Sanfeng East Road, south of Area B of Fuhe Resettlement Area, 4500 in mid-April.
The northwest corner of the intersection of Bowman Road and West Second Ring Road in Hongshan Manor opened at no preheating price of 5. 1.
There is no preheating price at the end of May on the north side of the new generation area C in Teana New Town.
There is no preheating price to be determined on the east side of Huaqing City, Tiane Middle Road, Huarui Science and Technology Park.
In March and March, Baoding had three new listed projects.
Name, location, general situation and transaction price of the real estate.
West Lake Manor, a new residence in Yingcun, Man Zi, has a multi-storey sales of 20 sets at 2800 yuan/flat.
West Lake Huafuzhuang new residence, multi-storey price of 2500 yuan/flat, has sold 100 sets.
The commercial house in the south of Yuhua East Road Passenger Transport Center, 200 meters west of Donghuangcheng, has a small high-rise of 5,300 yuan/flat, and more than 60 sets are subscribed internally.
(2) Statistics of prices, houses and transactions of representative buildings in Baoding in March.
Average transaction price (RMB/flat) The name and price changes of the real estate in this area.
The price of China House in Beishi increased in March, and about 20 sets of 500 yuan/Pingwu New House 6700 were sold.
There is no change in Jingnan Yipin, and there is no housing. The transaction was made on 6 100 0.
Kang Longjun Beijing March small high-rise price increase 200 yuan/Pingwu new house high-rise 5450; 6 sets of small and high-rise buildings, sold at 6 150.
Compared with February, more than 5,550 sets of North City Fengjing 200 yuan/Pingqian have been added, and 13 sets have been sold.
In March, the price of Lvdu Imperial Capital rose 100 yuan/flat, and about 30 sets of high-rise 5700 houses were sold without new houses.
Prices in Victoria Summer County are higher than those in February. 300 yuan/Ping 3. 16 Newly opened housing 18. The average building price is 5300 yuan (two units, with a total height of 32 floors, one staircase and three households, 90.5 floors on the left and 18 floors above). 5200 sold about 20 sets.
East Lake No.1 in East Lake Area is higher than that in February 100 yuan/flat high-rise 4750; Small high-rise 5500; 28 sets of multilayer 7 100.
The impression price of East Lake has not changed, and the new multi-storey 1 courtyard 14 1~200 square meters high-rise 5600 is pushed; About 60 sets of multi-storey 8000 deal.
The price of East Lake Tiandi has not changed, and there are no new houses. More than 65,438+000 sets have been sold.
In March, the price of Park Bay rose 150 yuan/Pingwu new housing high-rise 5050; About 90 sets of multilayer 6700 were sold.
Compared with February, the beautiful scenery in the western urban area has increased. In March, 450 yuan/Pingping opened a new house with 6 households on the first floor of the East Unit on the 2nd floor17th floor, and 3 households on the first floor of the 42m2 East Unit 1 1#, about 50 sets and 5,250 sets.
The price of Wanhe City has not changed. 3.27 The second phase of Building No.8 was opened * * * 160 sets were launched, and about 60 sets were sold in 4550.
Compared with some houses in February, the waterfront flower city has increased. On March 12, 400 yuan/Pingping launched the housing: Lou * * 18, Lou * * 27, Lou 14, Lou 19, East Unit 18. More than 20 sets were sold on 6 150.
Compared with February, Jiayuan Water Garden Bay rose by 100 yuan/flat, and launched 2# East Unit with two bedrooms and 93 flats and four bedrooms 164 flats. In March, 4900, about a dozen house cards were sold.
220 yuan/Pingping: A new unit No.5, No.6, No.7 and No.2 was opened on March 7, 2000, and about 300 units were sold in 25 days after the opening of the 33rd floor on March 7, 2000.
Compared with February, Jason Ideal City rose by 200 yuan/Ping, and rose by 100 yuan/Ping in March. March 19, 9# opened, 4,600 square meters, 90 square meters, two bedrooms, selling more than 50 sets.
The preheating price of Donghuangcheng in February is 5600/ flat; In March, the internal subscription price dropped by 300 yuan/Ping. March 9th: 1# internal subscription, two bedrooms 78 and 8 1 m2. One ladder and four households. 5300 sold about 60 sets.
Ivy Waterfront International Preheating Price 4500
Third, policy guidance,
1. Policy interpretation of clearly priced commercial housing sales
On March 22nd, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Regulation on the Clear Price of Commercial Housing Sales, which clearly stated that commercial housing sales should be clearly marked, and a set of one price should be implemented, and second-hand houses should also be included in the implementation scope. Developers are required to disclose all the houses at one time, which can be sold at a reduced price, but the price increase must be re-declared for the record. Operators who fail to implement the regulations will be fined up to 200,000 yuan.
HSBC's point of view: The purpose of NDRC is to make developers afraid by strengthening price supervision and avoid price fraud and arbitrary price increase, thus strengthening the control of real estate market prices. If this policy is implemented, the adjustment of housing prices will depend on the wishes of local governments to a greater extent. However, in the current ambiguous attitude of local governments to regulate housing prices, this provision will not fundamentally curb housing prices. Judging from the current situation of Baoding real estate market, most listed properties are in the state of unlicensed sales of faster houses. It remains to be seen how this provision will be implemented and what impact it will have on the market.
2. Local policy control list
As of March 29th, 70 counties and cities including Shanghai, Shenzhen, Zhengzhou, Taiyuan, Xi, Yinchuan and Guiyang have announced the price control target of 20 1 1 new housing.
Urban control target
Beijing: Compared with last year, the price of new ordinary housing in Beijing has dropped steadily this year.
The price increase of new houses in Shanghai is lower than GDP and per capita income growth.
The increase of new housing prices in Guangzhou is lower than the increase of GDP and the increase of per capita disposable income of urban residents.
The increase of new house price index in Shenzhen is lower than this year's GDP and the per capita disposable income growth rate of permanent residents.
The price increase of new commercial housing in Lanzhou does not exceed 9%.
Xi' an Xinjian housing price control target is that the increase rate shall not be higher than 15%.
The average price increase of new commercial housing in Jinan is lower than the growth level of per capita disposable income of urban residents.
The annual price increase of new commercial housing in Taiyuan does not exceed 13%.
The price increase of new housing in Haikou is lower than the growth level of per capita disposable income of urban residents.
The annual price increase of new commercial housing in Kunming is lower than the annual GDP and per capita disposable income growth level of the city.
The annual increase of new housing prices in Hefei is not higher than the annual GDP and per capita disposable income growth rate.
The price increase of new commercial housing in Yinchuan is controlled within the growth rate of per capita disposable income of urban residents.
The price index of new houses in Shenyang increased by less than 12% year-on-year.
Dandong new house price control target is to control the year-on-year increase below 9%.
The price increase of new houses in Foshan is not higher than GDP growth rate 12%.
Elm house price control target requires that the price of new houses below 20 10 increase by 50.5%.
The price increase of new housing in Yueyang is controlled at 65438 00%.
The price increase of new houses in Guiyang is controlled at 17%.
Baoding 20 1 1 The year-on-year increase in new housing prices was lower than the per capita disposable income and economic growth rate of that year. At the same time, further increase the supply of affordable housing and improve the level of housing security for residents.
In 20 10, the per capita disposable income of urban households in Baoding increased by 1 1%, the regional GDP increased by 14%, and the annual CPI increased by 3.2%. It is predicted that in 20 1 1 year, the per capita disposable income of urban households will increase by 10%, the regional GDP will increase by 1 1%, and the annual CPI will increase by 4%.
HSBC believes that the introduction of local government housing price control targets seems to have reached a conclusion in advance for this round of real estate regulation and control, which can basically be summarized by a word "up" except Beijing. According to Bobby Chen, vice president of China Index Research Institute, "the introduction of local government regulation targets must be made by local governments after considering the intention of the central authorities and combining local actual conditions. This should be the growth rate acquiesced by the central government and can be tolerated. The central government has never said that house prices will fall. The central government has always stated that it is only' suppressing the excessive rise in housing prices', so it cannot be said that the local government is now' against the wind'. " The "just-in-need family" who is looking forward to the decline in housing prices may be disappointed again.
Four. Hsbc's view
The current housing market, on the one hand, is the rigid demand brought by the urbanization process, coupled with the early consumption under inflation expectations, on the other hand, the government's strong regulation and control to protect people's livelihood, which can be described as a deep game between demand and restraining demand.
Under the background of national macro-market, Baoding real estate market has its uniqueness. As the most populous prefecture-level city in China, Baoding has a huge consumer group in the housing market. Although the house price has experienced a sharp rise in recent years, it is still at a medium level in the whole province, so it is the view of most people in the industry that the market price trend continues to rise. Under such expectation, the market price of Baoding real estate, which came out of the market trough of the economic crisis in 2008, has been rising all the way, and has maintained the trend of rising both in volume and price in the past two years. In this process, a large number of supply and main demand entered the market, and both supply and demand were overdrawn. Judging from the current statistical data, the market supply has exceeded all previous periods, and the pressure of market competition will increase when the previous market demand has been released. If the government continues to strengthen the regulation of real estate in the later period, then the projects with low cost performance and poor market competitiveness will first feel the signal that the market is turning cold.