In July, automobile consumption power and consumption level rose sharply, which promoted the year-on-year growth of passenger car sales in that month, and made some people in the industry look forward to the automobile market in the second half of the year. However, the data of market segments reflect that the low-end consumption has not improved significantly, and the expectation and worry of the automobile market coexist in the later period.
In July, automobile consumption capacity and consumption level both increased, maintaining the positive momentum in the second quarter. Statistical analysis from Zheng Zheng Dacheng Automobile Information Consulting Center shows that the national passenger car market in July this year was 31370 million yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year. The market size index of conventional passenger cars is 664.4 points, up 94.2 points over the same period of last year, indicating that the consumption power has greatly increased. The average sales price of passenger cars in July was 19 1 10,000 yuan, up10.5 million yuan year-on-year. The price index of conventional passenger cars is 137.8 points, which is 10.6 points higher than the same period of last year, indicating that the consumption level has risen sharply.
Behind the overall rise of the passenger car market in July is the extreme imbalance of the market structure, which is worrying. Among them, high-end cars with a price of more than 200,000 yuan stand out, which promotes the expansion of the passenger car market and the increase of the average market sales price. 1 1 10,000 ~ 1 0.9 million yuan, the demand in the mid-end market decreased, especially in the low-end market below110,000 yuan. According to the data of the Federation, the sales volume of passenger cars in July was about 6.5438+0.64 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. Among them, the sales volume of high-end cars was about 636,000, up 341%year-on-year; 1 1 10,000 ~10.9 million yuan, and the sales volume of mid-range cars was about 848,000, up-0.8% year-on-year; The sales volume of low-end cars below 654.38+ 10,000 yuan was about 654.38+0.56 million, up -20.0% year-on-year.
Judging from the data of the last five years, the automobile consumption demand of the general public has shown an obvious downward trend, which shows that the sales volume of middle and low-grade passenger cars has dropped to the lowest level this year. Statistics show that in the five years from July 20 16 to July 2020, from July 20 16 to July 20 19, the sales volume of high-end cars has been at the level of 300,000-500,000, which exceeded the 600,000 mark for the first time this year. On the contrary, the sales of 848,000 mid-level cars and 654.38+056 million low-end cars this year are the lowest in the past five years. What is even more surprising is that the sales of low-end cars in July this year have shrunk by nearly 60% compared with the same period of 20 16.
Macroscopically, the epidemic may still last for a long time, the downward pressure on the economy is greater, and the recovery of consumer demand is slow. Compared with the same period last year, the sales of low-end cars in the market outlook are still likely to decline. At the "2020 China Auto Forum" held in Shanghai on August 14, Bi, vice president of China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said: "In the first half of the year, only investment played a positive role in economic growth. In the first half of the year, the per capita consumption expenditure of the national residents actually decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, which was very significant. Total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 1 1.4%, and investment in fixed assets decreased by 3. 1%. These data reflect that the downward pressure on the economy still exists. Therefore, weak domestic demand, especially weak consumer demand, is still the main factor restricting economic recovery in the short term. "
The structural changes of high-end market expansion and low-end market shrinkage have led to the increasingly narrow living space of China brands, and it is worrying that some local car companies give up low-end models. At the "2020 China Automobile Forum", Li Xianjun, director of Tsinghua University Automobile Development Research Center, said: "Some China brands believe that the automobile market in China is in the stage of industrial upgrading or consumption upgrading, so there will be no market for middle and low-grade cars or entry-level family cars, but this is not the case. The consumer groups of entry-level models will exist in any country and different times, because consumers are mobile groups, new consumers will keep entering and people will keep quitting. Although high-end is a country, it is also the only way for any industry to develop. However, some car companies think that high-end development is the process of moving towards the middle and low end, which is a misunderstanding. When we went to the low end, we removed ourselves. "
On the whole, the automobile consumption capacity and consumption level rose sharply in July, which made a good start for the automobile market in the second half of the year, indicating that the automobile market in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half. However, the persistent impact of the epidemic still exists, and the pressure on the operation and employment of enterprises is great, leading to low-end consumption. At the same time, the shrinking of the low-end market has further compressed the living space of China brands, and some local car companies are losing the support of the low-end market. Therefore, there are hidden concerns behind the industry's vision of the automobile market.
(Source: Internet)
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.