So what is the significance of bond opening?
The demand of overseas investors for the mainland bond market is still weak.
The opening of China's bond market has achieved remarkable results, and the improvement of the opening degree of the bond market has brought about a continuous influx of overseas funds. However, overseas investors' demand for the mainland bond market is still weak. The incomplete opening of the inter-bank bond market and concerns about the capital control of the central bank still restrain the sentiment of overseas investors. The bond market has opened up new investment channels, but the central bank still wants to focus on long-term investment. Until then, the investment and trading constraints of the inter-bank market on overseas institutional investors may continue to be used, and trading institutions may not have enough motivation to enter. In addition, it should be said that the expectation of RMB depreciation has not completely passed under the influence of the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates three times and shrinking its table during the year. Changes in the capital control measures of the central bank may make it difficult for foreign investors to recover the principal or cash in the expected income quickly. On the other hand, the potential exchange rate loss also reduces the superiority of domestic bonds.
The long-term significance of bond trading northward is more important than the short-term impact.
After the opening of northbound bond trading, it is more convenient for foreign investors to invest in the domestic bond market, and it also expands the channels for RMB return. However, judging from the current situation, the long-term significance of the implementation of the bond pass is greater than the short-term impact, and the capital inflow brought by the implementation of the bond pass to the north may be limited in the short term.
Hong Kong's bond market is still weak, and there is a high spread between real estate and RMB bonds.
Compared with Hong Kong stock market, the development of Hong Kong bond market is relatively backward and weak. Hong Kong's credit bond market lacks the benchmark of industry credit bond yield, and the active corporate bonds in the market are mainly concentrated in banks, real estate, non-bank financial institutions, public utilities and other fields. On the whole, banks and public utilities have the lowest yields, while the real estate industry is relatively high. In addition, for non-RMB bonds, the depreciation of RMB exchange rate partially offsets the impact of low interest rates, so overall, the yield of RMB bonds is higher than the overall yield level of the industry.
Bonds are traded south, focusing on the excavation of value depressions.
The potential trading opportunities brought by the opening of bonds to the south are mainly reflected in two aspects: first, domestic investors can directly invest in US dollar or Hong Kong dollar bonds to gain the appreciation of the US dollar; The second is to invest in the offshore RMB bond market and tap the spread income.