According to incomplete statistics, it has been more than nine months since the "September 30" regulation last year, and more than 60 cities or counties across the country have introduced various real estate regulation policies. By the middle of the year, the "overweight" property market regulation since the spring of this year has continued.
House price trend: will the quotation drop?
Since the beginning of this year, starting from Beijing's "3. 17" policy, a new round of regulation has swept across the country from first-tier cities such as Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen, to sought-after second-tier cities such as Nanjing, Hangzhou and Xiamen, and then to Beijing and Shanghai.
From the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the effect of real estate quotation regulation in the first half of the year further shows that the decomposition of the property market is still remarkable.
House prices in first-tier cities have declined steadily. By June this year, the average year-on-year increase in the prices of new residential and second-hand residential buildings in first-tier cities has dropped for nine consecutive months. In June, the quotation of new residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in first-tier cities decreased by 0. 1% and 0.2% respectively. In the meantime, the quotation of second-hand houses in Beijing decreased by 1. 1%, and the quotation of new houses in Shenzhen narrowed to 2.7% year-on-year.
House price trend: sales in second and third tier cities.
By June, the average year-on-year growth rate of new commercial housing prices in second-tier cities dropped for seven consecutive months, and the average year-on-year growth rate of second-hand housing prices dropped for five consecutive months, and the overheating situation was definitely curbed. In June, although the quotations of some sought-after cities such as Hangzhou rose slightly from the previous month, the speculative demand was curbed.
Non-self-owned funds can't take land, existing houses are for sale, the area requires self-restraint, and the restrictions of house prices on land prices jointly restrict the bidding policy of real estate enterprises, and the impulse of real estate companies to take land is weaker than before. Bian Xiao found that although some real estate enterprises are still optimistic about land transfer in first-and second-tier cities, the growth rate of real estate development investment funds is slow and steady.
However, Bian Xiao recently interviewed some second-and third-tier cities and found that house prices in some places have picked up. The data of the National Bureau of Statistics also reflects the increase in land prices and house prices in some second-and third-tier cities.
Experts analyze the trend of house prices.
Liao Junping, director of the Real Estate Research Institute of Lingnan College of Sun Yat-sen University, pointed out that in recent years, more and more people have returned from big cities to their original places of outflow, and some of them have returned to second-and third-tier cities. According to accounting, in some second-and third-tier cities, the proportion of returning farmers buying houses by hand exceeds 50% of the local residential business, and some counties even exceed 70%, which naturally promotes the price increase.
The change of house price always affects the nerves of buyers. In the past June, due to the inability to pay 400,000 yuan parking space and 60% down payment, Xiao Feng, a white-collar worker with rigid demand, passed a fancy new house located in Zhijiang Plate, Xihu District, Hangzhou.
Ming Ming, director of the real estate sales supervision department of the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department of Zhejiang Province, said that individual real estate developers used high-priced parking spaces and transferred new houses through second-hand sales to raise prices, and the price difference "suppressed" by policies fell on such buyers.
Liu Hongyu, director of Tsinghua University Real Estate Research Institute, said that to regulate the property market, not only short-term and quick-acting methods should be used to "block", but also long-term methods should be used to "block", taking into account both the distance and the distance, and combining unblocking and blocking.
The above is the information about the trend of house prices compiled by Bian Xiao. You can take a closer look.