I graduated from college at the age of 22, bought a house for the first time at the age of 30, and chose to rent a house 50 years later at the age of 80 ... We can easily change a new home, change jobs and cities at will, and don't have to bear heavy mortgage. However, most people still want to buy a house after paying all their overdrawn youth! Why can't I rent a house for life? Most of the answers are: renting a house has no sense of happiness and security!
Renting a house is unhappy because:
1, in the case of rising house prices, renting a house has paid a high opportunity cost;
2. You can't participate in some social wealth distribution without buying a house;
3, lack of social integrity, even if a long-term contract is signed, it is difficult to keep the operating income after the value-added housing;
4. In China society, houses have many functions besides living, such as getting a degree as a wedding chip and so on.
Let's see how low the investment income of the house has been.
In a city where the cost of buying a house cannot be recovered in 50 years, it is best to sell the house.
Let's look at a picture. The figure behind the city shown in this picture is "static rental rate of return". "Static rental rate of return" = "annual rent/house price". The higher the value, the higher the rental rate of real estate investment.
The data on which this chart is based comes from Beijing Fang Yun Data and National Bureau of Statistics, which was published in September 2065438+2005. By analyzing this picture, we can find that:
1, the yields of these cities outperformed CPI, which means that even if house prices do not rise, wealth does not depreciate;
2. The yield is lower than the five-year long-term deposit rate, that is to say, if the house price does not rise, it is better to deposit in the bank, not to mention investing in long-term government bonds to buy funds with higher returns;
3. It seems a paradox that the return rate of first-tier cities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen is even lower than the short-term deposit interest rate, which is the lowest in the country, but these cities are the most popular cities for housing sales;
Shenzhen's "static rental rate of return" is 2%, which means that the house has to be rented for 50 years in a row to recover the original purchase cost. Moreover, the 50-year cost recovery is still the most ideal state, because: 1, there is a vacancy period for the handover of new and old tenants; 2. It costs to maintain houses and equipment after aging; 3. The rent will decrease after the house ages. Based on these three reasons, Beijing and Shanghai, where the "static rental return rate" is higher than 2%, are actually cities that cannot recover the cost of buying houses in 50 years.
According to international standards, the reasonable rent-to-sale ratio, that is, the ratio of monthly rent to house value, is 120 times for old apartment buildings, 140 times for new apartments and 160 times for independent villas. According to the calculation in the past 50 years, the rental-sales ratio of some cities in China is 600 times, which is several times the international reasonable rental-sales ratio.
Rational people are economic animals. Why are you trying to buy a house when the rental return rate is so low? The behavior of people who buy houses and invest is relatively easy to explain. They are betting that house prices will rise further. However, there are relatively few investors in first-tier cities at present, so why can't people living in their own homes choose to rent?
Four reasons why renting a house cannot lead to happiness.
There are four reasons why renting a house can't lead to happiness, and there are profound social and economic factors behind it.
First, renting a house may cost a huge opportunity.
Opportunity cost is the possible benefit of choosing one opportunity and losing other opportunities.
10 years ago, in 2005, fund-raising houses rose in Beijing, Shenzhen and other places, and finally they all chose the mode of raising funds to participate in the auction and purchase completed houses. 50 people in Shenzhen won the project of 3,200 yuan/square meter, and 50 people in Beijing won the project of 6,500 yuan/square meter. As a result, several people in each group felt that the price was high and there was no deal. In the past 10 year, 3,200 projects were worth 40,000, and 6,500 projects were worth 70,000.
These people who participated in raising funds to build houses at the beginning have lost millions if they have not bought a house so far. This is the opportunity cost of choosing to rent a house instead of buying one.
Most people who have stayed in first-tier cities for many years will regret that "I wish I had bought a suite a few years ago". What they regret is the huge opportunity cost they paid.
Similarly, choosing to buy a house in different cities will also pay the opportunity cost. Once, Xiaojun met a taxi driver in a taxi. Two years ago, he spent 500,000 yuan in mortgage to buy a house and Shenzhen, and his younger brother spent 500,000 yuan to buy a house in the third-tier city of his hometown. Two years later, the house in Shenzhen appreciated by more than 654.38+0 million, and the house in my hometown depreciated to 400,000.
The guide to buying a house believes that with the gradual weakening of the possibility of skyrocketing housing prices, the opportunity cost will gradually decrease.
Second, it is impossible to participate in the distribution of some social wealth.
In fact, wage income is only a relatively direct way of wealth distribution. In cities, the distribution of wealth is accomplished in many forms. Some people think that house prices are completely hyped, that is to say, the rise of house prices is completely caused by the relationship between supply and demand. Actually, it's not. Many parts of house prices are the real allocation of urban investment.
For example, the government spent tens of billions to build a subway, so every house along the subway indirectly got hundreds of thousands of this investment; The government spent billions to build parks, and the surrounding houses also allocated some money; A house with a degree is actually part of the government's investment in schools.
Also, the money in the bank is actually the deposit of the public. Business owners, especially real estate developers, are never afraid to borrow money. They are good at using leverage and other people's money to earn wealth. In fact, this is also a part of wealth distribution, that is, the right to use wealth brings new wealth. Compared with the depreciation of profits and money, interest is often nothing at all
For ordinary people, buying a house is one of the few available means to participate in the distribution of social wealth. Buying a house can not only be a part of the huge amount of money spent on urban construction, but also use leverage to have the right to use wealth with less risk.
The guide to buying a house says: We all think the government work report is ugly and the party newspaper is boring, but many people like to read it because they think they can "see money" from those documents, and its core lies in how to understand relevant information and participate in the distribution of wealth.
Third, the lack of social integrity makes it difficult to keep operating income by signing long-term contracts. Lijiang is a dream.
After reading the above two articles, many people may refute them. They will say that although renting a house can't gain value-added benefits by selling it, if a long-term contract is signed to fix the rent, can't tenants enjoy value-added benefits when the surrounding environment of the house improves? You don't want to argue, let's tell a story.
According to the newspaper, in March 2006, Aling, who traveled from Chengdu to Lijiang, was attracted by the quiet Shuhe ancient town and simple villagers and decided to quit her job and stay in Lijiang, rent a yard and open an inn. She took a fancy to Bai Ligang's house at the end of Central Street in Shuhe Ancient Town. The lease term of the contract is 20 years, and the annual rent is 50,000 yuan, which is paid once every three years. A Ling gave Bai Ligang the three-year rent of * * *150,000. She remembers that the latter took it with trembling hands: "At that time, they cultivated land and raised horses, and their annual income at home was100000 yuan. I have never seen so much money, or I took them to get a bank card. "
On October 2013165438+10, Bai Ligang called Aling to make an appointment and proposed to raise the rent. He has caused a lot of trouble in the past two years. "He asked me if I still wanted to hang out in Lijiang?" The landlord asked for a one-time increase in rent to 500 thousand yuan a year. A Ling chose to compromise and was willing to double the rent for the first five years, triple the rent for the second five years and triple the rent for the third five years. However, Bai Ligang insisted on raising the rent to 500 thousand yuan per year at one time, and the negotiations between the two sides failed.
Since then, the landlord cut the wire, drove away the guests, and called the police for mediation dozens of times, but the problem was not solved. 20 14 On April 6th, a fire broke out in Shuhe Ancient Town, burning down some houses in Aling Inn. Bai Ligang sued the court on the grounds that the leased property had been burned and did not exist, demanding the termination of the contract. A Ling asked Bai Ligang to cooperate with the reconstruction and continue to perform the contract. In the first instance and the second instance, A Ling lost the case. On the morning of September 1 1, 2065438, Bai Ligang hired excavators and trucks to continue to demolish the remaining houses in Aling Inn. Because the rest of the houses in the court decision were handled separately, A Ling tried to stop it, but Bai Ligang and his brother and wife knocked it down. Bai Ligang tried to beat Ling with a knife and was stopped by the police. In the end, A Ling was forced to leave Lijiang.
In Lijiang, once regarded as a paradise, Wang Lidong, president of Lijiang Inn Chamber of Commerce, said that driven by interests, "the default rate of ancient city landlords may exceed 80%." In order to get rid of the tenants, some landlords poured excrement on the doors of their rented houses, preventing the tenants from continuing to operate. Similar things have happened in Lugu Lake and other places.
The tenant took a prosperous lot, but the landlord wanted to break the contract and take back the house. Similar things happened not only in the "Xanadu" like Lijiang, but also in Songzhuang and other places in Beijing.
There are many similar stories. Some netizens told a story: a female painter also opened an inn in Lijiang and broke her contract. She said it was the third time that such a thing had happened to her. The first time was in 798, and the second time was in Songzhuang. Every time I do different types of business, I end up with the same result. As soon as the brand effect came out, the once boring landlord immediately changed his face. She said that she could no longer trust the contract.
In fact, in big cities, there are not a few cases in which landlords raise rents and break contracts, just because the rent contrast before and after is not so big, not too big news, and no one reports it. Have you ever met it while reading an article?
(The above answers were published on 2015-11-24, and the current relevant housing purchase policies should be based on the actual situation. )
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