Insiders pointed out that the future regulation will be mainly local, and the interviews and early warning of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will continue to affect local real estate regulation. 20 18 rounds of multi-city real estate inspection will be normalized on 20 19.
Emphasize "three stabilities" and highlight "one city, one policy"
Wang, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, put forward at the National Housing and Construction Work Conference held at the end of 20 18 that we should adhere to the policy of different cities, give classified guidance, consolidate the main responsibility of cities, strengthen market monitoring and evaluation, and earnestly implement the responsibility of stabilizing land prices and housing prices. Continue to maintain the continuity and stability of regulatory policies, strengthen the two-way regulation of supply and demand in the real estate market, improve the housing supply structure, support reasonable demand for self-occupation, resolutely curb speculative real estate speculation, strengthen public opinion guidance and expected management, and ensure market stability. Strengthen the supervision of the real estate market, and continue to carry out in-depth special actions to crack down on illegal acts that infringe on the interests of the masses and control real estate chaos.
Continuing this work requirement, the recent "two sessions" explicitly mentioned "three stabilities" and emphasized "one city, one policy". For example, Fujian proposed to consolidate the main responsibility of the city, compile and implement the housing development plan, and Fuzhou and Xiamen compiled the implementation plan of "one city, one policy" to stabilize land prices, housing prices and expectations.
Henan stressed that in 20 19, it will continue to implement the main responsibility of the real estate market to regulate cities, adhere to local conditions and comprehensive policies, and implement "one city, one policy". Hangzhou, Ningbo, Chengdu, Changsha and other places will also clearly carry out the "one city, one policy" pilot of real estate market regulation.
Shanghai will strengthen the regulation of the real estate market, the real estate market will develop steadily and healthily, and house prices will remain generally stable. Shenzhen stressed that more economic means should be used to build a long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, accelerate the implementation of supporting policies for housing system reform, and promote the pilot reform of residential policy-based financial institutions.
Shaanxi proposed to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and effectively prevent and control real estate risks. Sichuan province proposes to strengthen the supervision of the real estate market and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Liu Hongyu, director of Tsinghua University Real Estate Research Institute, pointed out that in 20 19 years, all localities should maintain policy continuity, conduct scientific analysis and comparative evaluation, and implement it on the basis of stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations, and maintaining a stable and healthy development of the real estate market, so as to prevent investment speculation from "coming back".
The industry believes that the future regulation will be mainly local, and the interviews and early warning of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will continue to affect local real estate regulation. 20 18 rounds of multi-city real estate inspection will be normalized on 20 19.
Relaxation and tightening coexist or welcome the policy fine-tuning period
Regarding the new features of the real estate market of the local "two sessions" this year, Zhongyuan Real Estate analysts believe that "three stabilities" have become the most critical policy direction of the local "two sessions" in 20 19. Stabilizing land price, housing price and expectation are the main tone of real estate policy in the second half of 20 18, which was explicitly mentioned by most provinces at this year's local "two sessions". "Overall, the steady development of 20 19 real estate will become a policy trend, and cities that are unfavorable to regulation will continue to be held accountable. Stability is actually a two-way adjustment, and the ups and downs are unstable. "
On the other hand, Zhongyuan real estate analysts told Economic Daily-China Economic Net that under the trend of stable or even downward real estate market, the excessively strict control policies in the past will change or become a trend, and the policies will be relaxed and tightened at the same time.
Judging from the actual situation, there have indeed been fine-tuning policies in various places, both loose and tight. In the fourth quarter of last year, Heze, Zhuhai, Guangzhou and other cities fine-tuned the relevant policies of the property market. Recently, Qingdao High-tech Zone announced that it would suspend the implementation of the lottery house sales rules, and Hangzhou's loan policy has been fine-tuned many times. Some banks stipulate that if the children are the same borrower, the loan period for the elderly to buy a house can be extended.
Haikou, Shantou and Changsha showed signs of tightening, and Haikou suspended the sale of commercial housing by enterprises, institutions, social organizations and individual industrial and commercial households; Shantou and Changsha have tightened the scope and quota of provident fund withdrawal.
Experts predict that in 20 19, there may be a fine-tuning tide of real estate regulation policies in more than 30 cities across the country, which will mark the bottom of this round of property market regulation. "Especially in second-and third-tier cities, in addition to credit policies, other policies may be adjusted in the near future, and some city banks may also adjust credit policies in disguise."
Increase the supply of affordable housing, and adhere to both rent and purchase.
Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward "both renting and purchasing", rental housing has been a "hot word" in China real estate market. This year's National "two sessions" further emphasized the improvement of the housing security system and insisted on both rent and purchase.
Beijing proposed that in 20 19 years, policies and measures will be introduced to further standardize and manage the housing rental market to promote the stability of the housing rental market; Multi-channel construction raised 50,000 sets of rental housing (rooms) and 60,000 sets of policy property housing, and completed the transformation of shanty towns 1. 1.5 million households. Guangzhou has made it clear that in 20 19, it is necessary to expand the coverage of housing security for registered families and basically build 32,000 sets of affordable housing projects. Shanghai proposed to supply 80,000 sets of various types of affordable housing. Shenzhen proposed to raise funds for the construction of talent housing, residential commercial housing and public rental housing, and build 80,000 sets of talent housing and affordable housing, with a supply of 34,000 sets.
Fujian, Jiangsu, Tianjin, Nanjing and other provinces and cities have also proposed that the supply of long-term rental housing will be increased in 20 19, and both rental and purchase will be adhered to, so as to vigorously cultivate and develop the housing rental market.
The industry believes that paying attention to security and encouraging leasing is an important part of building a "rent-and-purchase" housing pattern in recent years, and many places will further fill the shortcomings of security and leasing this year. In view of many irregularities in the current housing rental market, strengthening system construction and financial support is conducive to the realization of "two legs" of rental and sales.