What impact will the new real estate policy have on the stock market?

The new real estate policy will not have much impact on the stock market.

The state's regulation of real estate is mainly to curb the excessive rise in housing prices. Strictly speaking, this move did not kill the real estate industry with a stick. It is a pre-existing rule to pay 20% income tax on the profit of selling a house, but it was previously said that it was impossible to inquire about the purchase price, and the total house price of 1% was chosen instead. Now it is not allowed to replace. However, in the process of real estate transactions in China, there are generally intermediary-led yin-yang contracts. For example, if the seller wants to sell the house he bought at a price of 2 million yuan, he can sign a house purchase contract with the buyer at a price of 6.5438+0.65438+0.00 million yuan, and agree to pay the difference of 900,000 yuan in other ways. In this way, he only needs to pay 20 thousand yuan income tax, so he can avoid paying income tax.

In other words, this new regulation is relatively mild, mainly for psychological deterrence. If the house price is not obedient, there is a property tax waiting behind. And many experts have said that this new policy is bad for second-hand houses, but good for new houses. People don't want to buy second-hand houses, so they will inevitably choose to buy new houses, which may be a good thing for real estate listed companies.

Some people worry that if the real estate regulation is upgraded, it may have an impact on the capital of the stock market. If you ask real investors, you can find that investors who speculate in stocks will not reduce their investment in the stock market because of falling house prices. On the contrary, if the real estate market is depressed, speculators in the real estate market may put their money into the stock market with lower value. The adverse impact on the stock market is only the decline in the performance of listed companies such as steel and cement caused by the reduction in housing demand, but this impact on the entire stock market is only partial and will not reverse the existing ups and downs of the stock market.

At present, the A-share market is in a historic period of great change. The market will eliminate blind speculators with practical actions. Only by making a steady and steady value investment can we get a stable return on investment in the future stock market. Although the casino factor in the stock market has not been eliminated, investors who gamble in the stock market will gradually find it difficult to lose easily and win easily. Investors who want to profit from insider trading as before will also find it difficult for bookmakers to survive, and they have no future.

Therefore, real estate regulation will not have a great impact on the stock market, and the stock market will still reorganize the stock price according to the investment value of listed companies. This restructuring process may be a channel for investors to make profits in the near future.