How to make house prices soft landing

Since 2003, China government has issued a series of real estate control policies, but failed to effectively control the rise of housing prices. Therefore, how to adjust the current real estate policy is a difficult problem that the new government must face directly. High housing prices have not only become the biggest pressure on the lives of low-and middle-income groups, but also become the biggest hidden danger of China's economic development in the future. Historically, it is difficult for almost all countries to avoid the economic and financial crisis caused by the bursting of real estate bubble. Therefore, it is a "Chinese dream" worthy of discussion and attention to make housing prices soft landing. It is more reasonable to restrain demand than to expand supply to control house prices. From the perspective of supply and demand, there are only two ways to use. One is to curb demand, and the other is to expand supply. Many people suggest stabilizing housing prices by expanding supply, which is more reasonable and effective than using administrative means (such as purchase restriction policy). The expansion of the supply of market-oriented means seems to have a very obvious effect on regulating housing prices, but at the same time it may help accelerate the bursting of the real estate bubble in the future, leaving more sequelae for the economy and society. First of all, expanding supply means that more urban land (scarce resources) will be converted into residential land. From 2000 to 20 10, the urban area of China increased from 2 18 square kilometers to 40,500 square kilometers, an increase of 86%. Among the areas expanded during 10, secondly, according to the 20/kloc-of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of China, The per capita residential building area in China is about 365,438, which is nearly four times larger than that of 30 years ago (1978), but the biggest problem in China is that housing vacancy rate is high, although the rigid demand is still considerable. Therefore, on the premise of increasing the number of affordable housing, expanding the supply of residential commercial housing will inevitably lead to a further widening of the gap between supply and demand in the future (China's aging population and declining birth rate will reduce the future housing demand). Third, expanding the supply of residential land and housing means that the scale and proportion of financing provided by banks and other financial departments to the real estate industry will increase. Once the real estate bubble bursts, the bad debt rate of the financial sector will rise sharply, thus aggravating the seriousness of the potential financial crisis. Judging from the policy effect of restraining demand and controlling housing prices, although it is difficult to implement the policy and the short-term effect of controlling housing prices is not obvious, it is still effective in restraining speculative and investment demand. In addition, because land is a non-renewable resource, expanding supply will inevitably consume valuable resources, while restraining demand will not. We must find another way to expand supply and curb demand. Last year, the sales of commercial housing reached 6.4 trillion yuan. It can be seen that the scale of the real estate market is already very large. Judging from the total market value, the scale of real estate should exceed1000000000000000000 yuan, becoming the most important variety in China investors' asset allocation. Since real estate has formed a huge market, it should be standardized, and the three principles of "openness, justice and fairness" should be implemented, that is, the holding and trading information of commercial housing should be made public within a certain range, the trading process should be fair, and the way and price of obtaining commercial housing should be fair. Openness and transparency are the most important. To be open and transparent, we must first realize the nationwide networking of real estate information. At present, only more than 40 cities have achieved networking. It is not difficult to realize the networking of major cities in China technically. Once the national network is realized, it is possible to investigate and deal with property buyers suspected of violating the rules: this is like the previous regulatory authorities cleaning up and rectifying the stock market, such as borrowing other people's ID cards or trading with "tractor accounts", which will be cleaned up and terminated; For the behavior suspected of insider trading, not only the illegal income should be confiscated, but also the punishment should be given. In addition, the domestic securities law requires securities practitioners not to buy or sell stocks, while foreign countries require practitioners to disclose when buying or selling stocks. Then, after the China real estate market information networking, the requirements for the disclosure of basic information of property owners should be higher, and relevant information must be updated regularly, such as whether there is a phenomenon of borrowing other people's accounts to buy houses, whether the property is occupied, rented or vacant, etc. Especially for the behavior of civil servants buying and selling real estate, they should be required to declare it in time and make it public. Compared with the severity of the punishment for insider trading by the securities market supervision department, it seems that there are few cases of cracking down on insider trading in the real estate market. For example, there are many factors that affect land price and house price, among which urban road traffic planning and demolition planning are all important factors. Where expressway underground passage or subway and high-speed railway station are planned, and where demolition is planned, the land price and house price in this area will appreciate. Then, whether the insiders of these plans or decisions have related party transactions and whether they have benefited from them should be declared in time. The government should set up a "Housing Supervision Committee" with the same function as the CSRC to investigate and deal with people suspected of insider trading in real estate, just like insider traders in the securities market. If the national real estate information can be networked, it can form three major functions: the networking of government departments such as property market regulation, property tax collection, anti-corruption and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development can help the introduction of real estate regulation and control policies more accurately; Networking with tax authorities at all levels can be beneficial to the implementation of property tax; Networking with discipline inspection departments at all levels can improve anti-corruption efficiency. Furthermore, if the disclosure of civil servants' family property can be realized in the near future, it can achieve the effect of information supervision. Then, there will be large-scale commercial housing sales nationwide, which will expand the supply of commercial housing in another way and safeguard the fairness and justice of the market. Similarly, it will also play an obvious role in curbing the demand for speculative investment, because at least after the disclosure of civil servants' family property information, their investment behavior has been supervised by the whole society, and other people with huge income sources are not afraid to achieve the purpose of money laundering and profit through the real estate market. Inventory control is more effective than incremental control. As mentioned above, if the real estate information can be networked nationwide, the means of real estate regulation will be more diversified and the technical implementation difficulties can be solved. Judging from the property tax pilot projects in Shanghai and Chongqing in the past, the effect is not ideal, mainly because the scope of taxation is too narrow. In Shanghai, tax is levied on two or more newly purchased incremental houses, no matter how many in the past, the past is forgotten. Although Chongqing levies taxes on stock houses, it only targets high-end single-family villas owned by individuals. The property tax pilot projects in the above two places are essentially taxing a small number of incremental properties among large-scale property owners, which is doomed to be unable to adjust the inequality of social wealth, prevent the polarization of housing assets, curb real estate investment and speculation, improve the cost of real estate ownership as a whole, and realize the optimal utilization of real estate resources. Only by taxing the stock houses can we touch the existing interest pattern and effectively curb the rise in housing prices. The author thinks that the upcoming "20% income tax on real estate transactions" is very inappropriate: tax exemption should be reduced in real estate transactions, which can reduce transaction costs and thus lower house prices, revitalize the stock market and give a slow release channel for potential systemic risks. In the process of property ownership, the threshold for applying for property tax is slightly higher, and the tax is levied progressively, so as to get the support of the overwhelming majority of people. Supply has increased. Today's policy is just the opposite. Levying property tax is to optimize the rational allocation of real estate resources by increasing the cost of real estate ownership, and the key is how to formulate a reasonable threshold. The threshold is nothing more than choosing from several major indicators such as starting area, number of sets, price per unit area and total price. This is bound to become the most controversial scheme, just like the adjustment of the wage income tax threshold. However, if the property tax is to be passed, it must be targeted at the top 10%-20% of the total real estate of China residents, not the middle and low wealth classes. The reason why China's individual tax reform is widely criticized is that most high-income groups have not been effectively taxed (except for a few high-income industries that operate in a standardized way, most high-income groups in many industries adopt various tax avoidance methods, and the gray income part is more difficult to tax). Although comprehensive income tax has been proposed for many years, it has not been implemented, which shows that there is indeed a problem of insufficient willingness of administrative departments to reform in China. Therefore, China's comprehensive introduction of property tax may also lead to the end of "only hearing the sound of stairs and not seeing people coming down", but as a scholar, my wish is to introduce property tax nationwide as soon as possible. Property tax should learn more from the mature experience of the west, and at the same time, the transparency of real estate information must be improved. However, the transparency of key information in China's economic and social fields is always slower than expected, mainly due to the resistance from vested interests. Similarly, there is still great resistance to the taxation of existing real estate, but I still hope that the new government decision-makers can overcome the difficulties. Of course, it is still very difficult to control housing prices to achieve a soft landing, because the fluctuation of market prices is random to some extent. If the adjustment policy is too strong, the possibility of a sharp drop in house prices still exists. However, because the policy focuses on restraining demand rather than expanding supply; It is to improve the transparency of the market and optimize the allocation of real estate resources, rather than disturbing the market order; Narrow rather than widen the gap between the rich and the poor; Then, the probability that the real estate price will return to rationality after experiencing a sharp shock is still relatively large. Even if there is a plunge, it is better than the result of a plunge caused by expanding supply. After the stock control policy is effective, there is still room for manoeuvre, and housing prices can be stabilized by stimulating demand.