In order to win this "battle", the whole country is taking action. On the one hand, we actively support Wuhan, on the other hand, we are making every effort to prevent and control the spread of the epidemic. One of the most important measures is to extend the Spring Festival holiday so that everyone can stay at home to tide over the difficulties.
This is a measure that must be taken. However, if employees delay the start of work, enterprises will inevitably bear economic losses. Earlier, Jia, the chairman of a chain catering company with more than 400 restaurants in Youmian Village, said in an interview that it is expected that the revenue will be 700-800 million yuan a month before and after the Spring Festival.
In this case, enterprises with sufficient cash flow, that is, enterprises with insufficient cash flow, or more accurately, enterprises with poor management, are born to die. In the automobile circle, this "epidemic prevention station" may even be a "life-and-death battle" for many automobile enterprises under the epidemic control measures such as closing cities, roads and delays.
At present, most car companies have issued a notice to adjust the official start date to February 10. Of course, this is just a decision based on the previous epidemic situation. As the epidemic changes, holidays may be further adjusted. Information consulting company IHS? Markit had predicted that the epidemic would lead to the closure of factories, and the worst would even last until mid-March, which had a great impact on China's automobile production. The consulting organization predicts that the overall output of China automobile market will decrease by 32% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, with a reduction of over 6,543,800 vehicles.
In addition to the impact on production capacity, the impact of the epidemic on the terminal market may be even greater. Although many car companies are actively promoting the construction of online car viewing platform, watching cars at home has become a hot word in the industry. However, after all, cars are big purchases, and it is certainly unrealistic to complete the whole car purchase process online. The most important experience link will eventually be realized through offline to the store. The contradiction between real home and entering the store has not been fundamentally solved. How many people will enter the store during the epidemic?
Many car companies, it is estimated that it is difficult to survive this double blow of production capacity and market.
First of all, the survival pressure of weak joint venture car companies has greatly increased. With the intensification of market competition and the rise of independent brands, the living space of weak joint venture brands such as Shenlong Automobile, GAC Fick, Beijing Hyundai, Dongfeng Da Yue Kia and Changan Ford has been squeezed constantly, which has been in a very difficult development stage. For these joint venture car companies, most of them hope to boost sales by releasing new cars. Due to the impact of the epidemic, most car companies have to readjust their new car plans recently. Without new cars, the above-mentioned car companies will "turn over".
Secondly, the new forces of building cars need to "break through". On the issue of funds, new car manufacturers are generally sensitive. What is the financing situation? Is there a problem with cash flow? How long can the current cash flow last? These are the most frequently asked questions of 20 19 new car manufacturers. It is in a critical period when cash flow is most needed to ensure life and death, and it will be fueled by this epidemic. Of course, new cars and delivery plans will also be affected. For all new car manufacturers, 2020 will be difficult.
Moreover, some independent car companies that are constantly marginalized by the market have to face the "life and death test". Haima, Zotye, Huatai, Lifan, Li Xia and other independent car companies have all had brilliant market performance in the past, but in recent years, their sales have been declining and their losses have been increasing. This is regarded as a crazy enterprise on the verge of bankruptcy. Will the test of this epidemic become the last straw to overwhelm camels? It's hard to say.
In a short time, the impact of the epidemic on the automobile industry is obvious. Today, when the stock market first opened, many listed auto companies suffered heavy losses. However, in view of the impact of extending the holiday on the industry, the relevant departments are likely to have some subsidy measures such as tax relief. In the long run, China's huge market base will still maintain the prosperity of the automobile market, and this epidemic may accelerate the reshuffle of the automobile industry to some extent.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.