The Truth of Sino-US Trade Balance
Sino-US trade has developed rapidly.
Since China and the United States are the most active economies in developing countries and developed countries respectively, strong domestic demand has promoted the rapid development of economic and trade relations between the two countries. According to the statistics of China Customs, the trade volume between the two countries reached US$ 654.38+0696 billion in 2004, 72 times that of 654.38+0978. The Office of the US Trade Representative also acknowledges that trade with China is its fastest growing part. In 2004, US exports to China totaled US$ 34.7 billion, an increase of 1 14% over 2000. During the same period, US exports to Germany increased by only 7%, to Canada by 6% and to Japan by 65,438+07%. China has become the fifth largest exporter of the United States, after Canada, Mexico, Japan and Britain.
Sino-US trade relations are basically unaffected by Sino-US relations. In the past 25 years, although Sino-US relations have been affected by events such as the museum bombing and the Cox Report, the total trade volume between China and the United States has only dropped by 3.9%, from 65,438 to 0,990. In addition, Sino-US trade relations are not affected by the US economic cycle.
According to China's statistics, Sino-US trade began to show a deficit of US$ 6.2 billion in 1993, and rose to US$ 80.3 billion in 2004, increasing by nearly 12 times in1year; According to American statistics, the deficit of US$ 300 million started from 1983, and rose to16.2 billion in 2004. According to American statistics, in 1988, China began to rank among the deficit countries in the United States 10; 1989, from the ninth to the sixth; 1990, climbing to the third place; 199 1, China has become the second largest deficit target after Japan. After 2000, China's trade surplus with the United States surpassed that of Japan and became the largest trade deficit country in the United States. Since then, the trade deficit has continued to climb. By 2004, China's total trade deficit with the United States reached 26.2%.
Sino-US trade balance statistics have different calibers.
For a long time, there have been differences in trade statistics between China and the United States. The outstanding performance is that the trade deficit of the United States with China is much larger than the trade surplus of China with the United States. This difference not only has a long history, but also shows an expanding trend.
The U.S. Department of Commerce counts all goods directly imported from Chinese mainland and re-exported from Hongkong, but originating in Chinese mainland, as imports from China. In other words, the United States counts all products originating in Chinese mainland as China's exports to the United States. The statistics of China Customs only include the goods directly exported from Chinese mainland to the United States, and the goods that are known to be the final destination of the United States at the time of export, but are re-exported through Hong Kong. However, the final destination of many Chinese mainland export products is not always clear. Therefore, many China products eventually shipped to the United States are not included in China's trade statistics, but counted as Chinese mainland's exports to Hong Kong.
There are at least two reasons why the value of goods exported from China to the United States through Hong Kong is different from the value of re-export trade announced by Hong Kong. First of all, many goods exported from Chinese mainland to Hongkong are not included in the data of China, because their final destination is not clear. Second, American import statistics overestimate imports from China, because they include the added value of re-exports. Considering that the services provided by Hong Kong for goods exported from the Mainland to the United States include arranging transportation, insurance and finding customers, the added value of these goods is considerable.
Statistical differences of China's imports from the United States
Although there are some differences between China's imports from the United States and American exports to China (the difference between them is $4.3 billion in 1995, $5.5 billion in 2003 and11900 million in 2004), it can be done if the difference in transportation costs caused by the calculation of the CIF price of imports and the FOB price of exports is taken into account. This shows that the trade balance between China and the United States is quite different. Although it is related to China's imports and the United States' exports, it is not the main reason.
Neither side included trade in services in the statistics.
In the case that the total foreign trade deficit in the United States continues, the trade deficit in goods is basically expanding, while the trade in services is expanding.
According to the report of WTO, American service exports account for 18% of the world, and it is the largest service exporter and the largest service trade surplus country in the world. In 2003, the total service trade of the United States reached $549.59 billion, an increase of 5.77%. Exports were $3048 1 billion, an increase of 4.3%; Imports reached US$ 244.78 billion, up by 7.64%; The trade surplus in services was $60.03 billion, down by 7.4 1%.
It should be pointed out that a large number of services are hidden, which affects our true and comprehensive understanding of Sino-US service trade.
First, because a large number of non-cross-border service transactions are not included in the statistics, the service trade between China and the United States is underestimated. According to the report of the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce, in 1999, the service sales of American overseas subsidiaries reached $338 billion, which was 2 1% higher than the cross-border service exports provided to non-residents based on the balance of payments method in that year, and showed a rapid growth trend. Although these two figures cannot be simply added up, with the increase of overseas investment by American multinational companies, the services provided by foreign branches or subsidiaries in the host country have been paid more and more attention as a form of service trade export.
In China, many American manufacturing multinational companies also invest in China's trade, marketing or financial fields. These enterprises not only provide products for China, but also provide a lot of services to gain internalized benefits and support its commodity manufacturing and export. For example, automobile manufacturers provide credit services to consumers at the same time, oil manufacturers set up their own gas stations, and multinational companies set up R&D centers in China, such as IBM and GE. At present, because the services provided by American subsidiaries in China are not reflected in the balance of payments, the statistics of Sino-US trade in services do not include this part.
Second, the extra services that accompany foreign direct investment are often capitalized. In China, it is common for foreign capital to "share in technology", which actually makes the provision of some knowledge-intensive services, information-intensive services and R&D services hidden. Although China has also paid a high cost for this, it cannot be reflected in the import of service trade.
Third, a large number of service fees paid in the name of purchasing equipment in China are not counted.
Based on the above three factors, it can be said that Sino-US trade data is inaccurate, China data is underestimated and US data is overvalued. The difference in trade statistics between China and the United States is mainly due to the difference in entrepot trade statistics, especially whether China's entrepot trade from Hongkong to the United States is included in the bilateral trade between the two countries.
What is the trade balance between China and the United States?
Since 1990, many economists have estimated the actual scale of the trade balance between China and the United States. After adjustment, California economists Feng Guojing and Liu Zunyi estimated that the US trade deficit with China in 2002 was $76.6 billion. Together with service trade, the trade deficit of the United States in 2002 was $74.3 billion, which was roughly equivalent to the average of statistics between China and the United States ($72.9 billion). According to this data, the US trade deficit with China is overvalued by $28.8 billion, and China's trade surplus with the US is underestimated by $31600 million.
Reasons for the huge trade surplus between China and the United States
Americans' understanding of huge deficit
The United States believes that the trade imbalance between the two countries is caused by the following reasons: (1) American products encounter trade barriers in China and lack market access to China; (2) China lacks policy transparency and cannot fully implement the agreements signed by the two countries; (3) China abuses human rights, labor rights and environmental protection, and refuses to abide by international standards in these fields, thus gaining an unfair trade advantage with the United States; (4) the unpredictability of the future; (5) China intends to depress workers' wages and the value of RMB to promote exports.
The above five aspects are mainly summed up as the accusation that the China market is not open enough. However, China's large trade surplus with the United States does not mean that China is pursuing trade protectionism. It should be said that China is one of the most open markets in the world at present, even in all fast-growing economies. China's highly open market is reflected in the following aspects: First, in recent years, China's global import scale has increased dramatically, with the import volume increasing from $53.3 billion in 1990 to $561400 million in 2004, an increase of 9.5 times. The dependence on imports increased from 15% in 1990 to 33.9% in 2004, and lower import tariffs were imposed.
The real reason for the huge surplus
The trade surplus of former East Asian countries and regions with the United States was transferred to China.
China's processing trade is mostly developed by Japanese, Korean, Hongkong, Taiwan Province and other East Asian countries and regions in order to reduce production costs, improve competitiveness and transfer labor-intensive assembly processes in labor-intensive industries and high-tech industries. A large number of foreign-funded enterprises are established in Chinese mainland, and their products are processed and assembled in China. Relying on the original sales channels, they are mainly re-exported to traditional markets such as the United States and Europe through Hong Kong. Chinese mainland imported raw materials and spare parts from the above countries and regions, processed and assembled in Chinese mainland, and then exported them to the United States and Europe, which led to the separation of imported raw materials and spare parts from the export market in China's processing trade. Due to the principle of "substantial change" in determining the origin of imported goods, the exporting countries of processed products have moved from the above-mentioned countries and regions to China.
Judging from the trade deficit of the United States itself, the total foreign trade deficit of the United States has been increasing in the past decade, especially since the late 1990s. Although the trade deficit of the United States with China has been increasing, the proportion of this deficit in its total foreign trade deficit has not increased significantly, and it has remained at around 20% in recent years, far lower than 50% in the early 1990s.
Although China has now replaced Japan as the largest deficit country of American foreign trade, the proportion of American trade deficit with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan Province Province of China and other East Asian countries (regions) has been declining since the early 1990s. On the contrary, the trade deficit between Chinese mainland and China, Taiwan Province Province, South Korea and Japan is rising (see Table 4).
If we look at East Asia as a whole, the trade deficit of the United States with East Asia is relatively reduced. Therefore, China's current trade surplus with the United States is largely transferred from other countries and regions in East Asia. As other countries and regions in East Asia continuously transfer their production to Chinese mainland, their exports to the United States are also transferred to Chinese mainland's exports to the United States.
From the perspective of export, on the one hand, many products exported by China were originally produced and exported in other countries (regions) in East Asia, and now they are transferred to China. On the other hand, from the market point of view, the market size of other countries (regions) in East Asia is generally smaller than that of Europe and the United States, and the access restrictions are indeed stricter than those of Europe and the United States. Therefore, a large number of China's export products are mainly sold to Europe and the United States rather than East Asia.
In terms of imports, there are two reasons why China imports a lot from East Asia instead of the United States. First, the United States has strict restrictions on the export of high-tech products to China, resulting in a considerable number of products that China is willing to import cannot be imported. Second, because China's processing trade needs a lot of machinery and equipment and intermediate inputs, and China is still relatively backward at present, various inputs imported by processing trade have largely lost their comparative advantages in the United States and Japan, so China imports more from South Korea, Taiwan Province Province of China and ASEAN.
China's labor cost advantage leads to the surplus of four major commodities.
The main reason of trade imbalance itself is the difference of comparative advantages between the two countries. China's comparative advantage mainly lies in its abundant labor force, while the advantage of the United States lies in its scientific research ability, technology and human capital. From the perspective of industry, China's comparative advantage lies in relatively labor-intensive industries, while the United States is in technology and human capital-intensive industries. The products with the largest trade surplus between China and the United States are general machinery and electrical appliances, furniture and toys, shoes and hats, textiles and clothing, which reflects China's labor cost advantage. In 2004, the trade surplus of these four products was $52.2 billion, accounting for 89.2% of the trade surplus between China and the United States that year.
As can be seen from Table 5, the largest trade volume between the two sides is mechanical and electrical products. Among these commodities, especially high-tech products, such as nuclear reactors, high-performance instruments and meters. The United States once had obvious advantages, but the United States strictly controlled the export of technology to China. In 2003, it only exported US$ 65.438+06.5438+04 billion to China. On the contrary, ordinary mechanical and electrical products exported by China to the United States and high-tech mechanical and electrical products invested, processed and assembled by foreign investors in China amounted to $39.4 billion. As a result, under this project that the United States originally had advantages, there was a trade deficit of $28 billion.
Furniture, toys and other miscellaneous items have typical labor-intensive characteristics, and the trade volume and trade surplus rank second. In 2003, China's deficit products were plant products, chemical products and paper products in turn, with deficits of $265,438+billion,157 million and $950 million respectively.
The third largest surplus in the United States is paper products, which just reflects the poverty of forest resources in China. The United States is the largest and most advanced industrialized country in the world, but in Sino-US trade, the United States needs to rely on its agricultural and forestry departments to create a trade surplus.
The restrictions on China's technology export limit the comparative advantage of the United States.
China's economic growth driven by science and technology is conducive to reducing the trade deficit of the United States. However, the United States has always controlled the export of high-tech products to China, and is unwilling to export products that China needs, such as supercomputers, CNC machine tools, satellite technology, etc., and even low-tech products are restricted.
The low savings rate in the United States is another important reason for the US deficit.
The fundamental reason for the US trade deficit is that the total demand in the US economic structure is greater than the total supply. According to the national economic status, the difference between total investment and total savings should be balanced by the trade balance? This is the source of trade deficit and surplus. For example, the total savings in the United States from 1960 to 197 1 is greater than the total investment? Therefore, there is a trade surplus every year, which is manifested in American foreign investment and net creditor's rights; However, due to the unreasonable national income distribution structure in the past 30 years, the United States is a country with low savings and high consumption, resulting in oversupply. The savings rate in the United States has been declining since 1980s, with only 2.3% in 200 1 year, and the lowest point is only 0.3% in 200 1 year. High consumption leads to total savings less than total investment, resulting in trade deficit and fiscal deficit.
Re-evaluate the impact of the trade deficit on the United States
Many factors make the negative impact of the trade deficit on the American economy quite limited.
Under the background of economic globalization, American enterprises are constantly expanding within the scope of globalization. 10 years ago, American enterprises engaged in global operations only accounted for 20% of the total number of American enterprises, and now this proportion has exceeded 60%. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce of China, in 2004, the sales of Chinese-funded enterprises in China market exceeded 75 billion US dollars, and other products of the same scale were exported with China as the production base. According to a survey conducted by American Chamber of Commerce in China in 2003? The return rate of American-funded enterprises in China is considerable.
The United States is a huge beneficiary of Sino-US trade, at least in terms of employment and maintaining a high domestic living standard. Although some members of the US Congress accused China of stealing American workers' jobs, in fact, according to the information provided by the Office of the US Trade Representative in the report "The United States and the World Trade Organization", every US$ 654.38 billion worth of goods and services exported by the United States will bring nearly 10,000 jobs to the United States, and only direct exports to China will provide 300,000 high-paying jobs every year. Moreover, bilateral trade has also provided a large number of jobs for American industry and service industry, and it is increasing year by year. It can be said that if the trade with China breaks down, the unemployment rate in the United States will rise sharply and the stock market in the United States will be turbulent.
In addition, judging from the domestic market price in the United States, China's goods are cheap and good quality, which helps to alleviate inflation in the United States and benefit consumers.
The negative impact on the United States has been seriously exaggerated by some American interest groups.
Undeniably, the trade deficit between China and the United States does have a certain impact on the employment of some manufacturing industries in the United States, but the statement that the huge imbalance between China and the United States has caused a large number of unemployment in American manufacturing industries is unfounded.
First of all, in the United States, since the mid-1990s, with the massive adoption of new technologies and the resulting increase in productivity, the number of people required for the same output has decreased. Secondly, the economic cycle determines the employment situation. Whenever GDP growth is strong, the number of employed people will increase greatly. The unemployment of production workers will also be reduced. Thirdly, the economic recession in Europe and Japan, and the slow growth or even stagnation of imports from the United States are also one of the factors affecting American manufacturing and employment. Generally speaking, there is no causal relationship between American manufacturing unemployment and trade deficit with China.
The United States should not shirk its responsibility.
The United States not only imposes strict technology export control on China, but also strengthens technology control on other countries and regions. The United States has great comparative advantages in the production and export of high-tech products, and has always had a large surplus in the export of such products for many years. Secondly, imported oil has long been the largest single commodity in the US trade deficit.