Foreign public opinion generally questions the goal, but in fact, even if the average annual GDP growth rate in the next four years (2065438+07-2020) is lower than 6.5%, the goal of doubling GDP can be achieved.
First of all, we should understand that the logic of putting forward 6.5% as the lower limit of growth rate is that by the end of 20 15, the real GDP has increased by 46% compared with 20 10, that is, 1.46 times. If GDP doubles in 2020, it will be twice as much as 20 10 in 2020, so the average annual growth will be 1.0649 times, which is the so-called 6.5%.
So why doesn't the slowdown in economic growth drag down the goal of doubling GDP in 2020?
First of all, from a dynamic point of view, R&; D the adjustment of statistical caliber and accounting method is helpful to complete the goal of doubling. The statistical caliber and accounting method of R & ampd are basically adjusted every year, and the impact of adjustment will generally increase GDP stock and growth rate. (as shown in figure 1 and figure 2)
For R&; D the adjustment of statistical caliber and accounting method has been ignored by the market, but in 20 16, the Bureau of Statistics included R&D expenditure in the statistical scope, and revised the economic growth rate since 1953. According to the official explanation of the Bureau of Statistics, the adjusted GDP growth rate increases by 0.06% every year.
And future research and development; D there is still much room for improvement in statistical caliber and accounting methods, such as accounting the added value of self-owned housing with reference to market prices, and improving statistical classification and accounting methods of service industries. These adjustments and improvements will increase the GDP stock and growth rate, and further reduce the growth rate requirements in the next four years, so as to achieve the goal of doubling.
Secondly, from the numerical point of view, if the Bureau of Statistics keeps one decimal place, the goal of doubling can still be achieved as long as the growth is greater than or equal to 1.95 times in 2020. From this point of view, assuming that the annual GDP growth rate in 20 16 is 6.7%, and under different assumptions of the average GDP growth rate from 20 17 to 2020, the change of the real GDP growth multiple in 2020 is made. (as shown in figure 3)
It is not difficult to find that if the growth rate of 1.95 times is completed, the lower limit of GDP growth in the next four years can reach 5.8%, that is to say, the goal of doubling GDP is actually not so sensitive to GDP growth in the next few years. A large number of fans have not developed the habit of reading praises. I hope everyone can share comments after reading it to show encouragement! Thank you for reading!