First, the macro level.
At present, all localities have introduced real estate control policies and restricted purchases. In fact, if you invest in real estate, house prices may rise in many cases. You think you have made a profit, but it is difficult for you to sell it and then sell it. At this time, real estate can hardly represent residential purposes, and more is financial derivatives. Essentially, it is a wealth management product, which is a rigid payment wealth management product with poor liquidity.
In an article entitled "Stabilizing Real Estate, Strictly Regulating", Xinhua News Agency said, "Under the overall economic situation, we should persist in deleveraging and strict supervision, stabilize real estate regulation, and promote the rational return of development investment."
At the same time, two days ago, it was reported that house prices in Xiamen began to fall. If it is generally true news, I personally feel that this round of real estate defoaming has begun. If it is only an individual phenomenon but the media has made exaggerated reports, it may be sent to people who want this result. I vaguely feel that there is something wrong with the market. Moreover, the land recently auctioned in Hangzhou does not have much premium.
Therefore, from a macro perspective, I personally don't think much of the property market in the last year or two.
What should you do if you plan to buy a house now? I have a friend who asked me to buy a first-hand house. Now you only need 60% down payment, which can enlarge your leverage. Of course, the investment goal is to be the best in first-tier cities. Why? I assume that if the property market collapses, the first thing that will happen is that housing prices in second-and third-tier cities will plummet, and people will start selling their houses to preserve their value. Where will the investor's money go? You may start to put money into the property market in first-tier cities, because they are relatively safe in this round of decline.
Second, the micro level.
From the owner's point of view, there are currently130,000 houses near Lujiazui, but the rent is 200,000 and the annualized income is 1.5%. Rental income is not as good as ordinary bank wealth management products. Of course, buying a house in Lujiazui is for the benefit of house appreciation, not rental income.
At the same time, for me personally, a serviced apartment in Xiashaxi subway station in Hangzhou was purchased in September 20 16, two weeks before the G20 started. The unit price is 13000 yuan/flat, with an area of about 50 square meters, and the overall cost is about 700,000 yuan. I pay 50% down payment (the apartment belongs to commercial housing, and the commercial housing loan can only be 50%, and the loan interest rate is higher than that of ordinary housing loans, with a floating rate of 10-20%, and the longest loan period is 10 year). So I made a down payment of 350,000 yuan for this apartment, borrowed 320,000 yuan from the bank, and paid 3,500 yuan every month. Later, it was rented to a hotel for 3900 yuan a month. At present, I still have a monthly surplus in 400 yuan, which is 4,800 yuan more than one year, equivalent to 1.37% of the down payment of 350,000 yuan. I will have a house in 10 years.
Now this apartment can be sold for 27,000 yuan/square meter, 27,000 * 50 =135,000 yuan, assuming that taxes and penalties are 654.38+million yuan, there is still 1.25 million yuan left, with a bank loan of 320,000 yuan, and 930,000 yuan left in the bank for 4.5% financing, with a profit of 465.
To sum up, under the premise of not optimistic about the property market, I decided to sell the apartment in Hangzhou and cash out, with cash in my hand waiting for the opportunity.
Finally, at the end of the article, I quoted an investor as saying: "After 18, I make money by waiting. I have no chance at any time. If I don't have a chance, I will lie down. " In the near term, it is safer to hold cash.
Perhaps there are still many places in logic that are not rigorous enough. I hope you can correct me.
* * * Whatever you want.