The more important key point is: how to judge whether a suite in this community is a bamboo shoot price? Is it suitable to start? To understand this problem, we must start from the root cause.
1. Do you know what the price is? What is value?
Price is the transfer price of the house, and value is the real price of the house.
The price below this value is called the bamboo shoot price; A price above this value is a premium.
We learned a basic principle a long time ago: all commodities fluctuate in price around value.
We understand the fallacy that harsh prices are determined by production costs, and naturally understand that the argument that house prices will be *2 in two years is so pale and powerless.
We know that price depends on supply and demand. On the one hand, supply and demand reflect the value of this commodity, but on the other hand, the value of "supply and demand" is influenced by the price.
How does the operation of price system interact with value?
If we look at the rigor of commodities and economics in all industries of the whole society, this conclusion must be written like this:
The price system is the link between any industry and all other industries, and the decisions of all walks of life are influencing each other. The expected rise and fall of an industry determines the future relationship between supply and demand of goods in this industry.
If it is a house, it is:
It is precisely the linkage of surrounding communities and the changes of near and far communities that determine the housing price of this community. The two influence each other, and the expected rise and fall of a certain sector determines whether the houses in this area will be sought after in the future.
To put it more succinctly:
How much the house should be sold and how much it is worth is a linkage between the overall area and its expectation.
Can you refine it a little?
The region and expectation determine the gradient of future housing prices.
We have to judge how much the house in this community sells and how much it is worth, and we must have a ladder ruler of regional expectations in mind.
Second, the difference between the first-hand housing pricing ladder
The yardstick of second-hand housing price is actually very diverse and complicated. If you want to understand this ruler more simply, you can start with the developers, and the first-hand developers will give us many simple and straightforward price gradients.
Let's take a look at this research. Please look at the plan below (up north and down south).
The south gate is the main road+clubhouse, the north is the mountain path, the east road is close to primary schools and small property houses and branches, and the west is not far from hospitals and secondary roads.
In your opinion, which building is the so-called king of buildings?
Six buildings, of course.
Six buildings face the southeast, and the high-rise buildings have a panoramic view, while the green gardens on the lower floors are not affected by the noise of the stadium like the five buildings. As for the peripheral area of 1-4 building, the medical treatment, road noise and school noise are respectively.
There is already a new house for sale next to it. This plate claims to be harder in quality and naturally more expensive. How do developers price?
We ignore the order of opening, assuming that this is an empty plate and all the floors of all buildings are cold.
It must be 6th floor > 5th floor > 4th floor > 3rd floor ≈ 2nd floor > 1 building.
Here, it is still necessary to carefully study the distance between each floor and primary schools, small property houses and hospitals, as well as the influence of noise and dust between main roads, secondary roads, branches and paths, plus the landscape that can be seen on the whole floor, and then arrange the overall number of houses into an abc grade, and then subdivide the price difference between different floors.
For the general intention of the property, since it can be called a high-quality plate, then the orientation and huxing are similar. If you are looking for a real estate, which is located in the southeast and northwest, then this real estate is bound to be bad. There is no other plan except to exhaust every floor area ratio and squeeze out more construction area. Unless the location is particularly good, the follow-up of such a property is also quite worrying.
To make it easier for you to be intuitive, we cut everything open with a knife and put all the units on the same horizontal plane. Judging from the marketing pricing of first-hand developers, in addition to the orientation and huxing, the remaining considerations are landscape and noise.
Because it is a high-quality plate, it is similar to the apartment type, so the weight is probably as follows:
Orientation: apartment type: landscape: noise = 1: 1:3:5. Why is noise important? Because the eyes can choose not to look, but the ears can't choose not to listen.
About the landscape, simply speaking, it is the landscape outside the main bedroom, the second bedroom, the living room and the dining room.
Regarding noise, it is natural to look at the live simulation of the master bedroom, the second bedroom, the living room and the dining room.
As for the orientation, consider the duration of sunshine ventilation, including master bedroom, second bedroom, living room and dining room.
The final apartment is also the size of the master bedroom, the second bedroom, the living room and the dining room outside utility rate.
Are the advantages and disadvantages that the first-hand developers of existing buildings can show when they sell their buildings. Thinking about Gai Lou in the future is just a pipe dream.
This is the case of cross section, so we should also pay attention to the vertical cross section, that is, the price gradient from 1 floor to the top floor.
Here we only need to remember one approximate parameter: 0.5%-0.7%.
The price difference of each floor is probably between this parameter. 18 or so, the middle floor is the average price, and the price gradually rises from 1 floor to the top floor. Unless it is the top floor, generally speaking, the second top floor is the most expensive and the first floor is the cheapest. For high-rise buildings above 40 floors, this is a process from high to low, middle and high-rise buildings will be the most expensive, and then prices will be reduced slowly, and the first floor will always be the cheapest.
Generally, 0.5% is applied to the parameters of low-rise buildings, such as 2-5 floors, 0.7% is applied to medium-high-rise buildings, and 0.5% is returned to high-rise buildings. If it is a taboo floor such as the fourth floor and the fourteenth floor, then increase the parameters appropriately and make it cheaper.
For simplicity, the price gradient between the small high-rise building (red line) and the high-rise building (blue line) is shown in the following figure:
Sometimes there will be some special circumstances, such as some floors are halls out of the balcony, and some floors are rooms out of the balcony, so developers will also consider the pricing difference of different units on each floor to be around 3%-5%.
As long as we master the developer's routine, then you can naturally find out the developer's pricing gap scientifically, because you know the reason why it is cheap. When you are lucky enough to meet the developer's misjudgment of pricing, you can choose the opportunity to enter, that is, the price of new house bamboo shoots is lower than the value.
When will it be easy to have such a price?
After the new house is sold out, the developer has paid back the money completely and is indifferent to the tail goods. The seller just wants to let go, not at any price. At this time, you may be able to find goods with strange prices. For example, Mr. Wang, at the end of last year, in an area with an average transaction price of 20 thousand, caught a plate of top floor tail goods.
The salesman asked him, how much are you going to pay? Mr. Wang tentatively proposed, how about 8 thousand?
I'll give you 6.5 thousand!
Scared that Mr. Wang could not refute it, he immediately made up his mind. It is conceivable that bargaining depends on the opponent.
Third, the second-hand housing price gradient identification
It's finally the second-hand house's turn. It is not easy. We also know the pricing routine of first-hand houses. Can't we apply it?
Absolutely not.
Second-hand housing price gradient is the best embodiment of the internal relationship between price and value at the beginning of this paper.
The first-hand gradient price is the easiest to fall apart in the second-hand market. The second-hand market depends on the goods (apartment type), but the goods will change with time, and the region and expectation are the biggest variables.
Of course, we can also make a series of reference data of second-hand houses, such as comparing with the prices of new houses in the same lot, such as the age orientation of buildings, such as the price difference of floor parameters, such as degrees, such as living environment, such as property, such as house decoration, which can list the weights, but these are behind the region and expectations.
Judge whether this second-hand property is bamboo shoots, and whether the price is lower than the value?
The only evaluation benchmark is whether the regional development will exceed expectations and whether the gradient will be disrupted again.
The other is to know the price gradient of the whole large area, and then subdivide it into a small gradient of a certain area.
Let's take the familiar Guangzhou as an example.
In 2009, the average price gradient of Tianhe: Yuexiu: Liwan: Haizhu: Baiyun: Huangpu (excluding Luogang): Panyu was about1.6:1.5:1.1.0: 0.8
In 20 19, the average price gradient of Tianhe: Yuexiu: Liwan: Haizhu: Baiyun: Huangpu (excluding Luogang): Panyu became 4.8: 4.5: 3.3: 3.9: 3.0: 3.3: 2.8.
The increase multiples of Tianhe, Yuexiu, Liwan, Haizhu, Baiyun, Huangpu (excluding Luogang) and Panyu are:
3.0:3.0:3.0:3.9:3.7:4.4:4.6
Did you find anything?
Tianhe Yuexiu is still the first echelon for ten years; The second echelon changed from Liwan and Haizhu to Haizhu and Liwan; The third echelon changed from Baiyun, Huangpu and Panyu to Huangpu, Baiyun and Panyu.
Obviously, the growth multiple in the east and south is greater than that in the west and north.
In the old city, Haizhu is not as strong as Tianhe Yuexiu, but it has opened the gap with Liwan, which was originally evenly matched. Baiyun is also obviously weaker than Huangpu and Panyu.
The development direction of the city is naked in the context of housing prices. You want to ask where Nansha is? Sorry, Nansha was not so famous ten years ago.
This is the process of gradient change in Guangzhou. To sum up, the old city still has the prestige of the old city, and Tianhe Yuexiu is still the city center, but the gradient is tilted to the southeast.
If the high price of Tianhe Yuexiu is added, the following price gradient map can be obtained from west to south to east:
Therefore, if you want to know the gradient of second-hand prices, you must keep this gradient map of Guangzhou in mind.
The above is the macro-level understanding of the price of second-hand housing.
However, the problem has not been solved. From the microscopic point of view, we still don't know whether the price of bamboo shoots is worth buying or not.
Sorry, I don't have a formulated answer.
I can only provide a medium-level reference, please remember the answer in this article:
Matching with the expected price of regional development, the price that conforms to the price gradient is the price of bamboo shoots.
Among them, the future value is 1.5 million, and now you buy 70 thousand, bamboo shoots.
Where the future value is10.5 million, you can buy it for 90 thousand now and don't shoot it.
Where the future value is 1 10000, you buy bamboo shoots for 50000 now.
If the future value is 80,000, you can buy it for 50,000 now, and don't sell it.
Where the future value is 70,000, you buy bamboo shoots for 30,000 now.
If the future value is 40 thousand, you can buy it for 30 thousand now, but don't sell it.
Tianhe Pearl City and Yuexiu Degree Room are 6.5438+0.5 million places in the future, with 70,000 people entering, which can be described as bamboo shoots.
Tianhe Park is the future place of 1 10000. If you enter 50 thousand, you must shoot bamboo shoots.
The area around Chebei Dongpu is the land of 80,000 in the future. 50 thousand can go in, not out.
Panyu District, Huangpu, that is, 70,000 plots of land in the future, you go in with 30,000 to change bamboo shoots.
Zengcheng area in Nansha is only a piece of land worth 40,000. If you go in with 30 thousand yuan, it's actually filling the pit.
Subdivided into various regions, each property discount is different. You can add some houses with good quality, or houses with congenital degree and trajectory mutation potential to this price range.
If you really want to give a reference index, you can add money on the basis of the expected bamboo shoot price, which is probably high quality+15%, suboptimal quality+10%, southeast transparency +5%, floor difference +0.7%, excellent building age and property environment +5-8%, and low-grade apartment +5%. So if they are all excellent, for example, the price of bamboo shoots will increase by more than 50%, which is ok.
But for some buildings that have touched the peak of regional prices, the only thing you can choose is to avoid them. For example, Tianyi in Tianhe Park, Genting of Phoenix in Xintang, Zengcheng, and sea view rooms in Nanshawan are all over 30,000.
Fourth, summary.
Am I the truth?
Of course not.
You may say, I don't know if the price of this property I met in my hand is really bamboo shoots.
I can only say I'm sorry, but Star Man can't give you a formula standard that can be effectively applied.
This involves a personalized problem.
Between two adjacent buildings, the price ranges from 6w to 4w, and similar units on the same floor have similarities and differences because of the orientation from 4w to 3w. Are there only cheap bamboo shoots? No, this may be the price of bamboo shoots.
Because these are independent individuals, as long as they don't deviate from the whole.