The number of licensed goods soared year-on-year, and the news of big orders came one after another. The newly announced number of products on the market provides more choices for related enterprises, and all kinds of performances are warming up for the outbreak of this market segment.
Large car launcher
Heavy trucks, which account for less than 5% of the total, have always been out-and-out "big emitters".
Statistics show that at present, the number of cars in China has reached 287 million, and the number of trucks has reached 3 1.9 1 10,000, accounting for nearly 1% of the total number of cars.
"According to estimates, the number of heavy-duty vehicles in China is more than 1 1 10,000, accounting for only 4.4% of the total number of vehicles in China, but the emissions of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter reach 85% and 65% of the total vehicle emissions respectively." Liu Youbin, spokesperson of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, introduced this situation in May this year.
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment's Annual Report on Environmental Management of Mobile Sources in China (2020) also shows that among the total pollutants emitted by motor vehicles in China in 20 19, the carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), nitrogen oxides (nitrogen oxides) and particulate matter (PM) emitted by trucks in China were 2.057 million tons, 450,000 tons and 5/kloc-respectively. They account for 29.7%, 26.3%, 83.5% and 90. 1% of the total vehicle emissions respectively. Among light, medium, heavy and mini trucks, the four pollutants emitted by heavy trucks are 806,000 tons, 265,000 tons, 4.607 million tons and 36,000 tons respectively. In other words, heavy trucks account for 74% of the emissions of nitrogen oxides; It accounts for 52.4% of PM emissions.
Another data shows that the pollution emission of a heavy fuel truck is equivalent to 250-300 passenger cars.
Promoting new energy commercial vehicles, especially realizing the new energy of heavy trucks, has become one of the key tasks for the automobile industry to implement the double carbon goal. A big car emitter will also become a big car carbon trader.
"It is the general trend for heavy trucks to get involved in the carbon trading market." Liu Zeng, deputy general manager of National Power Investment Green Power Transportation Industry Innovation Center and Shanghai Qiyuan New Power Technology Co., Ltd., said that in the transportation field, heavy trucks should be one of the main forces of carbon emissions trading in the future.
Cao, Minister of Technology R&D Department of State Grid Commercial Electric Vehicle Investment Co., Ltd., also introduced the calculation results. If tens of millions of heavy trucks and construction machinery in China are all electrified, the annual power demand will exceed 1 trillion kWh. If all clean energy is used, carbon dioxide can be directly reduced by 900 million tons every year, accounting for nearly 9% of the national carbon dioxide.
Predicament and outlet of new energy heavy truck
In September, 2020, China put forward its own commitment of peak carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality: it will increase the independent contribution of the state, and strive to reach the peak carbon dioxide emission in 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. During the 20021National People's Congress, the peak of carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality were written into the government work report for the first time, and became one of the hot topics and key tasks in various industries this year.
Local governments have also introduced policies to limit fuel consumption and reduce carbon emissions, and started to give green light to new energy logistics vehicles, including heavy trucks, such as restricting or even prohibiting high-emission fuel vehicles from entering the city and encouraging large enterprises to use new energy heavy trucks.
Under the current background, the penetration rate of new energy products in China's commercial vehicles is accelerating. The forecast released by roland berger shows that by 2030, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles will reach 20%.
This new blue ocean will also experience explosive growth. It is generally believed in the industry that new energy heavy trucks, especially heavy trucks that replace electricity, are expected to become the number one potential stock in this market segment in the future. The prospect of hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks is also optimistic.
However, limited by the technical level, the promotion of pure electric, plug-in hybrid or hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck models is not ideal, and there are few breakthroughs in many scenarios. Take pure electric heavy truck as an example. Due to the short cruising range of power battery and the heavy battery load, it is difficult to compare the heavy truck as a "money-making" tool with the traditional fuel heavy truck in terms of medium and long-distance transportation and cargo carrying capacity. The relatively long charging time and the inconvenient charging station at the gas station further affect the "money-making efficiency" of pure electric heavy trucks. In terms of purchase cost, loading a large number of batteries on heavy trucks not only affects their own weight and cargo carrying capacity. It is understood that the price of pure electric heavy trucks is 200,000-600,000 yuan higher than that of fuel vehicles under the same circumstances.
In terms of subsidies and other support policies, since the promotion of new energy vehicles in China, the support for new energy trucks is generally less than that for new energy buses, which is more obvious in local policies. In addition, the subsidy standard is decreasing year by year, which is less and less helpful to reduce the cost of new energy heavy trucks. From 2065 438+09-2020, the new energy heavy truck with initial improvement in sales quickly got a 50% discount.
This unfavorable situation is improving.
From the perspective of technology and business model, in the past two years, a series of indicators such as energy density and service life of power batteries have been significantly improved, and the cost has been continuously reduced.
It is found in the industry that pure electric heavy trucks can be applied to a variety of non-long-distance transportation scenarios through power exchange mode. The application of hydrogen fuel cell technology in heavy trucks can supplement and solve the problem of medium and long distance transportation.
With the tightening of emission regulations and various management systems of commercial vehicles, driven by a series of favorable factors such as the elimination of old vehicles and new infrastructure, the overall performance of the commercial vehicle market has been more prominent in the past two years. The implementation of the Sixth National Congress and the goal of carbon neutrality and carbon dioxide peak emission has promoted the electrification of commercial vehicles, especially heavy trucks.
According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in the first half of 2002/kloc-0, the domestic production and sales of commercial vehicles were 2.73 million and 2.884 million respectively, up by 15.7% and 20.9% respectively. Among them, the sales volume of trucks was 65,438+0,643,000, up 65,438+04.7% year-on-year.
According to the latest statistics released by the Ministry of Public Security, in the first half of 20021,the number of newly registered trucks reached 2.42 million, an increase of 546,000 over the same period of last year and a year-on-year increase of 29 12%.
Although compared with the whole heavy truck market, the volume of new energy heavy trucks is still very small, and the penetration rate is only 1%-2%, but the growth potential is being released rapidly.
Industry analysts pointed out that the performance in the second half of the year or even next year will be more beautiful. Since the beginning of this year, major production enterprises have exposed many "big orders" one after another.
According to the incomplete statistics reported in public at present, the total number of orders for new energy heavy trucks in the first half of this year has exceeded 654.38+00000, and the products replacing heavy trucks with electricity have become the absolute protagonist. Only during the 34th World Electric Vehicle Congress and Exhibition in late June, faw liberation, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles and other enterprises regarded the exhibition as an order show, and large orders of 2,000 and 3,000 vehicles followed.
Although the new energy heavy truck has just started, it also faces many obstacles in practical application. However, driven by multiple favorable factors such as policies and regulations, enterprise transformation and upgrading, increased market demand, and progress in technology and business models, the fast-forward era has arrived.
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