Recently, with the continuous fermentation of Evergrande's debt crisis, the real estate industry has encountered an unprecedented credit crisis, which has caused the market to worry about the liquidity of housing enterprises. In this regard, Zou Lan, director of the Financial Markets Department of the People's Bank of China, stressed at the press conference of financial statistics for the third quarter of 2002 15 June that the problems of Evergrande Group are individual phenomena in the real estate industry. "After the macro-control of real estate in recent years, especially after the establishment of a long-term real estate mechanism, the land price, house price and expectation of the domestic real estate market have remained stable. Most real estate companies are operating steadily, with good financial indicators, and the real estate industry is generally healthy. "
Some financial institutions have misunderstandings about "three lines and four gears"
Zou Lan, Director of the Financial Market Department of the Central Bank, expounded the debt risk resolution and disposal of Evergrande Group and its impact on the real estate industry at the press conference of the third quarter financial data statistics held in June 5438+1October 55438+May.
"The total assets of Evergrande Group exceed 2 trillion, of which real estate development projects account for about 60%, and more than 1,000 project subsidiaries involved in/kloc-0 are independent legal persons." Zou Lan bluntly said: "In recent years, this company has been poorly managed and failed to operate prudently according to changes in the market situation. But blindly diversified expansion, leading to a serious deterioration of business and financial indicators, and finally the risk broke out. "
However, at present, relevant departments and local governments are handling and resolving risks according to the principles of rule of law and marketization, urging Evergrande Group to intensify asset disposal, speed up the restoration of project construction and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers. In this process, the financial department will cooperate with the housing and urban-rural construction departments and local governments to provide financial support for the project to resume work.
It is worth noting that in the process of debt risk fermentation of Evergrande, the whole real estate industry is also facing a credit crisis. Recently, negative news such as Fantasia debt default, contemporary home buyers' deferred payment of bills, and Sony's announcement that it is unable to repay the upcoming US dollar debt have once again triggered market concerns about the liquidity of real estate enterprises, and the US dollar debt of real estate has also seen a new round of general decline. On the other hand, it is more and more difficult for real estate enterprises to issue new bonds overseas because of the fluctuation of yield and the lack of investor confidence. According to the reporter of China Times, only Hellenborg has successfully issued green bonds since June+10, 5438.
A recent report released by Moody's also pointed out that the potential direct losses caused by the Evergrande crisis have been controlled due to the large assets of financial institutions in China, and their ability to absorb and buffer losses is good. However, the financial crisis of Evergrande may lead to a significant deterioration in the financing channels and real estate sales of real estate developers.
In this regard, Zou Lan believes that the problem of Evergrande Group is an individual phenomenon in the real estate industry. After the macro-control of real estate in recent years, especially after the establishment of a long-term real estate mechanism, the land price, house price and expectation of the domestic real estate market have remained stable. "Most real estate companies are operating steadily, with good financial indicators, and the real estate industry is generally healthy."
Then, if the economic growth slows down further, will the central bank relax the management of real estate credit? At the meeting, regarding the centralized management system of real estate loans that has entered the normal implementation stage, Zou Lan said that in the first three quarters of this year, the amount of personal housing loans remained stable, which basically matched the sales amount of commercial housing in the same period. Among them, housing prices in a few cities have risen too fast, personal housing loans have been restricted to some extent, and the rate of housing price increase has been suppressed. After housing prices stabilize, the relationship between mortgage supply and demand in these cities will also return to normal.
Zou Lan pointed out that some large-scale housing enterprises have recently been exposed to risks, and financial institutions' risk appetite for the real estate industry has dropped significantly, showing a consistent contraction behavior, and the growth rate of real estate development loans has dropped significantly, but "this short-term overreaction is a normal market phenomenon. Following the accident of Baoshang Bank on 20 19 and the debt default of Yongmei and Brilliance last year, similar phenomena also occurred in the interbank market and credit bond market ".
Zou Lan admits that some financial institutions also have some misunderstandings about the financing management rules of 30 pilot real estate enterprises, and the rules require that the balance of interest-bearing liabilities of "red-file" enterprises should not be increased. The misunderstanding is that banks are not allowed to issue new development loans, and after enterprises repay loans with sales income, newly started projects that should be reasonably supported can not get loans, which also causes some enterprises to have a tight capital chain to some extent.
In view of these situations, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission held a real estate finance forum at the end of September to guide the major banks to accurately grasp and implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, maintain the smooth and orderly delivery of real estate credit, and maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Zou Lan emphasized that "the central government's strategy and policy on real estate regulation and control is a long-term follow-up for us to do a good job in real estate finance."
Release a loose signal
"This meeting has put forward many important suggestions on mortgage loans for the real estate market and enterprises. Fully studying and understanding this formulation will play a positive role in accurately grasping the trend of mortgage policy in the fourth quarter and optimizing the market entry strategy of housing enterprises and buyers. " Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, believes that understanding the position of the financial market department of the central bank on the recent business risks and mortgage policies of real estate enterprises will play a positive role in predicting the real estate financial policies in the fourth quarter.
Yan Yuejin said that it can be seen from Zou Lan's statement that the central bank has noticed the contraction and decline of development loans and defined it as "short-term overreaction". In terms of follow-up credit, the bank loan guidance was clarified, with special emphasis on the "smooth and orderly" operation mode of credit supply, and the loose signal was released.
From the policy point of view, the recent statement about mortgage is constantly enriched. Previously, the central bank proposed "safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers", but this time it proposed that "real estate development loans have short-term overreaction", which fully reflected the central bank's concern about personal mortgage loans and real estate development loans. Judging from the tone, paying attention to the downward pressure on housing enterprises and the market and ensuring sufficient credit supply have become important features in the fourth quarter.
"Accordingly, it can also be considered that the credit policy will be systematically and comprehensively relaxed, which will essentially improve the cash flow of housing enterprises and have a positive impact on project marketing and project development investment of housing enterprises." Yan Yuejin told the reporter of China Times.
In fact, according to the incomplete statistics of the reporter of China Times, as of June 7 10, more than ten cities, including Jiangyin, Dalian, Kunming, Shenyang, Yueyang, Heze, Zhuzhou, Tangshan, Huizhou, Zhangjiakou and Xuzhou, have issued "price limit orders" to join the market.
According to public information, on September 27th, the third quarterly meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank 202 1 was held on September 24th. The meeting clearly pointed out that it is necessary to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers; On September 29th, China People's Bank and China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly held a real estate finance forum. The meeting demanded that financial institutions should follow the principles of rule of law and marketization, and cooperate with relevant departments and local governments to maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers.
Within a week, the financial management department focused on the steady and healthy development of the real estate market twice, which was also regarded as an important signal to boost the real estate industry by the industry. At that time, the Guo Jin Securities Research Report bluntly said, "We believe that the central government has a more comprehensive understanding of the real estate dilemma and there may be some adjustments in the future."