Dubai information:
At the ebb of the global financial crisis, a large-scale debt default occurred in Dubai World, a sovereign investment entity in the United Arab Emirates, which is known as a "day never sets" enterprise, causing waves in the global financial market.
Dubai was once hailed as a successful example of oil economic transformation in the Middle East. The debt crisis has caused emerging market economies to reconsider their development models. For China, which is in the process of economic transformation, the enlightenment of this crisis deserves special attention.
Current situation
Dubai's inflated real estate bubble burst.
Dubai, a luxury capital in the desert, explored a new economic growth model in its early years because oil resources were on the verge of exhaustion. Its choice of high-end real estate development route has promoted 300 billion US dollars of construction projects in the past five years, attracting the pursuit of oil country funds and hot money all over the world. With the help of real estate, financial services and tourism, Dubai has risen rapidly and become the most active commercial center in the Gulf region and the Middle East.
However, the debt storm of Dubai World may break the real estate myth it represents. From the "Dubai World" debt crisis to the international financial crisis triggered by the unfinished American subprime mortgage crisis, and even to the "lost 10 year" caused by the bursting of the real estate bubble in the 1990s, if the real estate bubble is too large, it will eventually burst.
Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, countries have introduced economic stimulus policies, creating a financial environment with extremely low interest rates and abundant funds. During the crisis, emerging markets with relatively good conditions were generally sought after by funds, international funds and hot money poured in, and the prices of stock market and housing market soared.
The data shows that the real estate market in South Korea, Singapore and other places has generally risen, and the average price of the property market in Brasilia, the capital of Brazil, has increased by more than 120% a year. In Hong Kong, where house prices fell sharply after the outbreak of the financial crisis, house prices rose sharply in the past six months and basically rebounded to the previous high point. The average price increase of existing homes in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou has exceeded 30%.
Feng Fei, director of the Industrial Economics Department of the State Council Development Research Center, said that in the current international economic system with abundant liquidity, we should pay special attention to the asset bubbles in China's stock market and housing market.
Fang Ming, a senior analyst in the global financial market department of Bank of China, believes that the Dubai crisis has exposed the risk of asset bubbles in its growth model. "China's investigation and squeezing of asset bubbles is a lesson that China should learn from Dubai's debt crisis."
However, Tsinghua University China and Li Daokui, director of the Center for World Economic Research, do not fully agree with this view. He said that the real estate problem that triggered the debt storm in Dubai was different from that in China. "The problem faced by China real estate is that the price has risen too fast, and real estate has become an investment product, which exceeds the people's ability to pay, but commercial real estate has not been overdrawn."
It is understood that the debt ratio of some local financing platforms in China is too high. If this situation encounters a sharp economic downturn, the risks involved may be concentrated.
Li Daokui emphasized that Dubai's development model still has important reference significance for China's resource-based cities and regions. Judging from the current situation, Dubai's development model cannot be completely denied because of its short-term financing problems.
B hidden danger
Hot money may impact China's capital market.
Chen Gong, chief researcher of China Anbang Consulting Co., Ltd., who has been studying Dubai's economic model for a long time, said that the biggest problem in this debt storm is whether the trust of global capital in emerging market models can be sustained. "If this trust is destroyed, it will undoubtedly trigger a heavy blow to emerging market countries."
Experts believe that the influx of petrodollars and international financial capital has supported the rapid rise of real estate prices in Dubai in recent years. The debt crisis will make Dubai's magnet effect of attracting hot money disappear in recent years. Considering the recent devaluation of the Vietnamese dong, the market is generally worried that the judgment of hot money on emerging markets may change.
165438+1On October 25th, the Vietnamese government announced that the target exchange rate of the Vietnamese dong would depreciate by 5%. This is the first time since June 5438+February last year that the Vietnamese government deliberately devalued its currency.
Fang Ming believes that international capital may face new flow choices in panic: on the one hand, international capital will reconsider the security of emerging markets; On the other hand, hot money from nowhere will flow into China, a new, safe and fast-growing country.
Chen Fengying, director of the Institute of World Economics of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said that after the Dubai crisis, the flow of hot money may be adjusted. At present, the degree of asset virtualization in China is low, and wealth is based on the real economy. Therefore, whether it is short-term speculation or strategic investment, China is very attractive to international capital.
"Under the background that the expectation of RMB appreciation is rising and there is already a bubble in the domestic stock market and real estate, the pressure of hot money flowing into China will rise in the future." She said.
In this regard, Fang Ming suggested that China should maintain the expected stability of RMB in the near future, and strengthen the control of hot money flow, especially to prevent hot money from entering and leaving the China market on a large scale. At the same time, it is necessary to strictly check the credit of China companies and their banks involved in Dubai business, and closely monitor the damage and asset deterioration of relevant institutions. Once the risk exposure is found, we must make clear the position of our position in the repayment order, strive for the right to speak in the future debt restructuring, and safeguard our own interests from losses.
C warning
We should draw lessons from China's investment and "going out to sea" investment.
As the sovereign investment entity of Dubai World, the debt crisis has attracted people's attention. The industry believes that the Dubai incident has also awakened investors' awareness of the risk of sovereign debt default, and they are worried about the impact on CIC's overseas investment?
Compared with the previous investment focused on the financial sector, CIC's investment strategy has changed this year, frequently selling commodities including oil, coal, agricultural products and real estate.
At the beginning of September, China Investment Corporation, Morgan Stanley Real Estate Fund, Qatar Holding Company and American private investor Simon gleeck injected capital into the British Songbird Real Estate Company, which was on the verge of bankruptcy, to help the company repay the debt of Citibank in the United States up to 880 million pounds. After the capital injection, CIC will hold about 19% of the company's shares. In June, CIC invested 200 million Australian dollars to invest in the Australian Real Estate Trust Company.
Chen Fengying pointed out that it is necessary for CIC to diversify risks at this stage, but we should pay attention to the fact that the investment front should not be too long.
She suggested that CIC's overseas investment should learn from Dubai World's investment strategy, and the front line should not be stretched too long. At the same time, we should strengthen the expectation and evaluation of overseas investment risks.
In addition to CIC, many domestic banks and China enterprises investing overseas have also become the focus of attention. Affected by Dubai debt crisis and other factors, global stock markets have fallen sharply recently. As soon as the Dubai crisis broke out, many domestic listed companies issued announcements to clarify their business relations with Dubai World in crisis.
It is reported that Wenzhou people, who accounted for one-tenth of Chinese businessmen in Dubai in this crisis, lost about 2 billion yuan in assets. Among them, those who lose the most are those who borrow huge amounts of money after making money from real estate speculation.
In this regard, Chen Fengying believes that through the Dubai crisis, emerging market companies need to be more cautious when investing overseas. When the external investment environment reverses, emerging markets may find it more difficult to solve problems and risks than developed countries.
Opinions of all parties
The Warning Function of Dubai Crisis
The day before yesterday, a seminar with the theme of "The Causes and Effects of Dubai Debt Crisis" was held at the World Research Center of Xinhua News Agency. More than ten experts attended the seminar and expounded their views.
Psychological influence is greater than actual influence.
Xiang Songzuo, president of the Pacific Research Institute, believes that the Dubai crisis is not as serious as expected. He said: "The Dubai crisis has affected the loans of commercial banks, such as Credit Suisse, HSBC and Royal Bank of Scotland, which are purely commercial loans."
Yang, a researcher at the Center for World Studies of Xinhua News Agency, stressed that Dubai, like Iceland, which was caught in the national bankruptcy crisis last year, is on the edge of the world economy, and cannot compare with Lehman Brothers in terms of influence and extension chain, and it happened in the process of global economic recovery, with very limited impact.
Some experts also believe that the Dubai crisis is a signal of the bursting of Dubai's real estate bubble, which does not rule out the possibility of an impact on the world economy.
The root of Dubai crisis lies in the development model.
Gong Gang, director of the Center for Contemporary China Economic Research at Nankai University, believes that the Dubai crisis is a continuation of the financial crisis on the surface, and its essence is a problem with the development model.
After earning the first bucket of gold from oil, Dubai vigorously developed real estate and other projects through foreign loans, aiming to build a logistics, leisure and financial hub in the Middle East, and built a large number of building facilities such as the world's only seven-star hotel "Burj Dubai" and the world's largest artificial island "Palm Island".
"The rapid development of Dubai is a false prosperity formed by financing real estate speculation." Gong Gang said.
It has a strong warning effect on emerging markets.
After the Dubai crisis, the credit rating agencies Standard & Poor's and Moody's immediately downgraded the credit rating of Dubai's state-owned enterprises. Xiang Songzuo pointed out that some investors have begun to reduce their holdings of assets in emerging market countries.
"The Dubai crisis has given us five inspirations. First, the debt ratio of developing countries should not be too high. Second, we must handle the proportional relationship between the virtual economy and the real economy. Third, excessive economic opening will lead to uncontrollable risks. Fourth, don't rely too much on foreign debt during the transition period. Fifth, developing countries should fully develop the real economy. " Yang said to him. (According to Xinhua News Agency)