Gu Yunchang, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: The registered price of real estate will not drop significantly.
Recently, some media reported that the "Provisional Regulations on Real Estate Registration" (hereinafter referred to as "Provisional Regulations") has been basically finalized, and has been issued by the State Council, and it is planned to be promulgated this year, and will come into force on March 1 day, 2065438.
This matter has attracted attention on the Internet. What is the relationship between the final version of the Provisional Regulations on the Registration of Real Estate and ordinary people? Will it significantly lower housing prices? What is the role of anti-corruption?
Gu Yunchang, deputy director of the Housing Policy Expert Committee of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said in an interview that real estate registration has two main purposes: First, to "find out the family background" of the number, category, distribution and property rights of real estate in the country and establish basic data, which can greatly improve the scientific and targeted macro policies such as real estate; Secondly, the introduction of this policy is also to better protect the interests of obligees. If there is a dispute, people can determine their rights and protect their rights according to the records in the real estate register.
In addition, some people think that the real estate registration system will lead to a sharp drop in house prices. In this regard, Gu Yunchang said, "There are many factors that affect housing prices, the most important of which is the relationship between market supply and demand, as well as tax laws and national macroeconomic trends. If registration starts in March next year, it will take several years to complete. It is still too early to talk about the impact on housing prices. "
The impact of real estate registration on housing prices is expected to be "very limited"
The unified registration of real estate, which has attracted much attention, has new news recently.
On February 2, 65438, some media reported that the pilot project of unified registration of real estate led by the Ministry of Land and Resources and involving several relevant ministries and commissions was launched a few days ago, and several cities have been arranged to pilot it first, which is expected to be fully launched next year. The report also quoted "authoritative sources" as saying that the Provisional Regulations on the Registration of Real Estate (hereinafter referred to as the "Regulations") may be promulgated as soon as this year.
If the news is true, it means that the regulations will be made public this month. In this regard, analysts from the real estate industry pointed out that the promotion of real estate registration will have a psychological impact on the property market, but the real impact on housing prices is quite limited.
The Property Law promulgated and implemented in 2007 stipulates a unified registration system for real estate, but the registration of real estate in China is still the responsibility of different administrative departments, that is, decentralized registration. This practice of decentralized registration is considered by the management department to be no longer suitable for the needs of social development.
As a result, the unified registration of real estate led by the Ministry of Land and Resources began to advance.
In August, the Provisional Regulations on the Registration of Real Estate (Draft for Comment) was released to the public for comments. Leng Hongzhi, executive deputy director of the Real Estate Registration Bureau of the Ministry of Land and Resources, stressed the original intention of this move in an online interview with the Chinese government website on August 27: "The unified registration of real estate is mainly to solve many disadvantages of decentralized registration, completely protect the legitimate property rights of real estate owners and improve the efficiency and level of government governance."
The reporter of "China Business News" saw from the website of the Ministry of Land and Resources that in June of 5438+00, the real estate registration unified documentary style, and formally solicited opinions from the members of the Inter-Ministerial Joint Conference on Land and Resources System and Real Estate Registration and relevant ministries and commissions.
As soon as the unified registration of real estate of the Ministry of Land and Resources was launched, it was considered to be related to housing prices and anti-corruption, which triggered public expectations.
At present, it is generally understood that in addition to promoting official property publicity, real estate registration may also provide data support for property market purchase restriction and property tax introduction by realizing nationwide housing information inquiry. At the same time, another way of saying it is that the introduction of the real estate registration system is to control the property registration of existing commercial housing and prepare for the subsequent comprehensive anti-corruption, property rights system reform and real estate market regulation.
The unified registration system of real estate may bring changes to the property market, including a decrease in the number of speculators, an increase in the supply of commercial housing in the short term, and a return to rationality in the property market.
In this regard, Zhang Hongwei, director of the same policy consulting research department, told this reporter that from the perspective of property market regulation, real estate registration actually refers to the nationwide personal housing information registration network and the gradual establishment of personal housing information system, which is of positive significance for establishing technical conditions based on tax and fee regulation, classifying and regulating the property market with "differentiated" measures, adjusting the relationship between supply and demand of stock houses, and establishing a long-term regulation mechanism of the property market.
However, he also stressed that the impact of the promotion of real estate registration on the current housing prices is psychological, and the substantive impact is still difficult to see.
Xue, director of institutional research at Shanghai Kerry, holds a similar view. In his view, even if the housing information networking and real estate tax policies are superimposed to form a "combination boxing", the greatest utility can only be limited to the accurate management and monitoring of real estate and improve the efficiency of housing use. As for "lowering house prices", he believes that the role is "very limited".
In addition, there is also a concern in the industry that after the top-level design of real estate registration is completed, it may encounter resistance at the implementation level. Ding Zuyu, CEO of Yiju China, once mentioned that the real difficulty of real estate registration lies in the networking at the national level, that is, whether local governments are willing to put the real estate registration information of their cities at the national level.
"The impact of real estate registration on the property market is probably not so direct." Yin, a researcher in the real estate industry of China Investment Consulting, believes that the regulation is still in the pilot stage. Up to now, the list of pilot cities for real estate registration has not been announced. In addition, there are many registration standards for real estate registration in different places, and how to implement them is still unknown.
Real estate registration system identification expert: don't let house prices fall.
Policy changes in the property market are always particularly nerve-racking, because everyone's desire for home is directly simplified to the desire for a house to some extent. In addition, whether in Beishangguang or the provincial capital and county-level cities, house prices and local average income levels have the temperament of "tiptoe" or "tiptoe brick". People who don't have a house care about house prices. For people who have a house, there are n sets (n is less than or equal to 2) that are also concerned about the changes in house prices. Because in addition to Uncle Fang, Aunt Fang and Grandpa Fang, they are also concerned about the house that the whole family once bought together, and what is the current market. Therefore, it is often seen that once the price of the second phase is reduced, the owners of the first phase will come to smash the farce of the sales office.
Since the beginning of this year, the nationwide property market has been in a downturn, and second-tier cities have plunged sharply. Although the property prices in first-tier cities have barely maintained a firm face, the disappointing transaction volume, the lifting of purchase restrictions and the interest rate cut by the central bank are also sending a message: the crazy property market seems to have really converged. Is it bottoming out or continuing to fall? Everyone is speculating, but no one dares to give a clear judgment.
At this time, there was a heavy news from the property market, and the "Regulations on the Registration of Real Estate" was put on the table. People care about two things. First, is it true? Second, there will be some groups selling houses, and the stock of the second-hand housing market will increase. Will house prices fall again?
According to the data, in March this year, the first meeting of the inter-ministerial joint meeting on real estate registration was held, and it was clear that it would take about three years to fully implement the unified real estate registration system. In May, the Ministry of Land and Resources listed the establishment of the Real Estate Registration Bureau with the approval of the Central Organization Establishment Committee. In August, the "three-set plan" of the real estate registration bureau, which was established only three months ago, was introduced. In September, the "Provisional Regulations on the Registration of Real Estate" ended public consultation and was further revised and reported to the State Council. 165438+1October 28th, that is, half a month ago, the central organization establishment committee approved the renaming of "China Land and Mineral Legal Affairs Center" as "Real Estate Registration Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources".
The "Regulations on the Registration of Real Estate" is coming soon, which is completely certain. Based on this, stocks will rise and house prices will fall?
Zhang Dawei, director of the Central Plains real estate market research department, said that the first thing to understand is that the Real Estate Registration Ordinance is a tool for collecting and sorting out information. The original intention of its introduction is not to let house prices fall, but to provide a more scientific and accurate judgment and basis for the introduction of future regulatory policies at the national level.
Zhang Dawei: The Regulations on the Registration of Real Estate is actually similar to the normative documents such as the census. However, what needs to be done is that its database is not yet available. With such a principled document, all localities need to register and implement it in the future, and these property rights and property rights should be registered. Its purpose itself does not involve any regulation. Because it is a foundation, just like the census, its purpose is to find out the basis of the market, and then formulate policies such as a separate second child according to the results of the census. "
The introduction of the regulations is not directly related to the rise and fall of housing prices. Therefore, it is unlikely that it will "fall". But, in the long run? What about the derivative effect? Many people in the industry believe that in the long run, real estate registration can improve the operational efficiency of real estate market regulation and even macro-control to a certain extent, which will inevitably have a greater impact on future housing prices. Zhang Dawei: Many people think it is real estate regulation, but it is not. However, after the real estate information registration network, such as the previous property tax, property tax, etc., these related things can be more powerful. Once networking can be realized in the future, for the whole country, real estate regulation can be changed from the previous incremental link to the stock link. For the market, this deterrent will definitely be great.
There is no chance that house prices will fall in the short term, but it is possible in the long term. However, how far in the long run is unknown, and how long you can wait, only you know best. Mr. Ma, who lives in the west of Beijing, just bought a house in the east of Beijing a few days ago.
Mr. Ma: The ultimate reason is rigid demand, because it is more convenient for family members to live in the east to go to work. In addition, I don't think the house in Beijing will be reduced in price, and I won't lose money if I buy it. In addition, not many people bought houses in Beijing in the first half of this year. Everyone should say that they have been watching, so I think there are still many better and more suitable houses for sale in the second-hand housing market, and there is a lot of room for choice.
According to statistics, as of 65438+February 9, 58,000 sets of new commercial housing have been signed in Beijing, excluding self-occupied affordable commercial housing. It is estimated that 46,000 sets will be signed throughout the year, setting a new low in the past six years. In addition, the reporter collated and counted the information on SouFun. At present, the proportion of discount promotion in Beijing sales is above 70%. Zhang Dawei said that at present, it can be said to be an opportunity to buy a house.
Zhang Dawei: There are some signs of stability in the Beijing market, but it is still different from last year's hot situation. I think that for first-tier cities such as Beijing, due to the large population base, the new supply will not increase significantly. So at this time, some houses with relatively suitable prices are a good opportunity to start, or an opportunity to buy a house. "
Real estate registration will be implemented in March next year to cool the price of second-hand houses.
After the central government approved the listing of the real estate registration center of the Ministry of Land and Resources, the pace of real estate registration accelerated again. Recently, it was reported that the "Provisional Regulations on the Registration of Real Estate" (hereinafter referred to as "Provisional Regulations") has been basically finalized and has been issued by the State Council, and it is planned to be promulgated this year, and it will come into force on March 1 day, 2065438.
Experts said that the impact of the real estate registration regulations on the property market is not as ordinary people think, and a large number of houses will enter the market, thus lowering the current market price. From the perspective of housing prices, some multi-suite owners may sell their houses in a short time, but most of these houses are concentrated in areas with relatively complete infrastructure and facilities, and the prices of these houses have always been "hard currency" in the market, so it is difficult to reduce housing prices.
Yin, a researcher in the real estate industry of China Investment Consulting, also said that as for the impact of real estate registration on the property market, I am afraid it is not so direct. As far as basic messages are concerned, the weight of messages is not enough. "This regulation is the" Provisional Regulations on Real Estate ",which is still in the pilot stage, and the scope of the pilot is uncertain. The scope of this model is undoubtedly weakening the actual influence of the Regulations on the Registration of Real Estate. "
The reporter learned from many intermediaries such as Zhongyuan Real Estate and Chain Real Estate that the current digestion cycle of the property market is relatively long, and there are many large-sized units entering the market in the high-end market in the short term. It is expected that with the acceleration of real estate registration, the supply of large-sized second-hand houses will continue to increase.
According to the latest data, 20 14, 1, 15, the total number of second-hand housing transactions in cities was 60029, up 25.99% from last month and down 5.55% from last year. According to the data of SouFun's second-hand housing data monitoring center, the listing price of second-hand housing in 26 cities has dropped from 16 to 10, and the price of ***2 1 city has risen and fallen within 1%.
"It is not excluded that some families or individuals do some disposal on some properties because they are unwilling to register. Although this will accelerate the entry of some stock houses into the market, there may be a downward trend in house prices caused by the increase in supply in some areas. " Chen Guoqiang, vice president of China Real Estate Society, pointed out.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, also believes that with the opening of real estate registration, it is expected that the supply of large-sized second-hand houses will continue to increase, especially in the near future when local governments are expected to relax their control policies, which indicates that the price cooling-off period of the national second-hand housing market may be further extended.