Can the price increase of yellow phosphorus exceed 654.38 million?

The price increase of yellow phosphorus cannot exceed 65,438+10,000. Recently, the prices of related products in the phosphorus chemical industry chain have continued to rise. According to the data released by Baichuan Fu Ying, the price of yellow phosphorus was 60,082 yuan/ton on September 5, which stood at the integer mark of 60,000 yuan in one fell swoop, up about 280% from the beginning of the year. Affected by raw material yellow phosphorus, the price of phosphoric acid rose simultaneously, and the quotation for the day was 13490 yuan/ton, which was about 65438+ higher than that at the beginning of the year. Baichuan Fu Ying said that the yellow phosphorus market is in short supply at present, and the price of yellow phosphorus will continue to run strongly in the short term. However, the supply of phosphoric acid in the market has decreased and the price has continued to rise. Due to the tight supply of raw materials and high prices, some manufacturers have stopped installing them.

First, about yellow phosphorus.

Yellow phosphorus is the main raw material of thermal phosphoric acid, and the price of thermal phosphoric acid directly determines the cost of iron phosphate. This round of yellow phosphorus rising, hot-process phosphoric acid enterprises have started to adjust prices or stop taking orders, which will inevitably lead to an increase in the cost of iron phosphate in the future. The impact of simple calculation cost has exceeded 1000 yuan/ton, which is tantamount to adding fuel to the fire for the iron orthophosphate that entered the price increase channel this year because of the shortage of supply, and the price increase expectation may be further strengthened.

Second, review the historical price increase of yellow phosphorus.

The last surge occurred in July of 20 19. At that time, affected by environmental protection, the price of yellow phosphorus soared from1.5000/ton to 25000/ton, but the high price did not last long, and soon fell back to1.7000/ton, so it did not have much impact on the iron phosphate industry. The rising speed of the price of yellow phosphorus is somewhat 20 19, and its persistence remains to be seen.

To sum up, the yellow phosphorus production capacity is mainly distributed in Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Hubei and Jiangsu, among which Yunnan is the main producing area of yellow phosphorus. In 2020, the output of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan Province accounts for about half of the national total output, and it is the main supply area, which has a great influence on the supply of yellow phosphorus and is affected by the distribution and downstream application of phosphorus resources. Since the beginning of this year, Yunnan's yellow phosphorus production capacity has been limited for many times, resulting in a sharp drop in the operating rate of the entire yellow phosphorus industry in the user country compared with previous years.