It is expected that RMB will enter the blue market. On the one hand, before the Executive Board meeting, the major member countries had reached an agreement on the entry of RMB into the blue market. In particular, the support of the United States means clearing the most important obstacle for RMB to join SDR. On the other hand, as the author pointed out in the comments of Voice of China 5438+0 1 in early June, SDR needs RMB more than RMB. Since the establishment of 1969, SDR has been in an awkward position in the international monetary system, and it is urgent to correct its existence and value through reform. If China's RMB, as the world's second largest economy, the largest commodity trading country and the largest exporter, can join SDR, it will also be of great significance to the promotion of SDR itself. The inclusion of RMB in the SDR currency basket will make the currency basket more diversified and more representative of the world's major currencies, thus helping to enhance the attractiveness of SDR as a reserve asset. Based on this, although there are still differences on whether the RMB meets the standard of "free use", everyone's interests are the same on the issue of RMB joining SDR.
As Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said at the press conference, "The decision to include RMB in the SDR basket is an important milestone for China's economy to integrate into the global financial system. This is an affirmation of the achievements made by the China authorities in reforming the monetary and financial systems in the past few years. " Obviously, for China, this is undoubtedly a major event in the process of reform and opening up and the biggest "face project" in the field of economic and financial reform this year. No matter what it will eventually bring to China and the world, as far as the "blue entry" of RMB itself is concerned, it will at least give China a ticket to participate in the next step of reshaping the international financial order. Moreover, it also means that emerging market currencies have joined this club for the first time since World War II, and are called "aristocratic currencies".
However, the "blue entry" of RMB is by no means "symbolic" as some critics have pointed out. Earlier, the Financial Times reported that China's strong desire to promote RMB as SDR currency came from "sense of honor and national image". Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's words were very representative: "If RMB becomes SDR currency, it will have no impact on ordinary people in China. Mainly symbolic. " The key to supporting this symbolic significance is that many people think that SDR accounts for a small proportion of global reserves: as of September this year, the SDR created and distributed by the IMF to member countries is only about 280 billion US dollars, while the global reserve assets are about 1 1.3 trillion US dollars. According to the current weight of RMB "entering the blue", the increased RMB demand is less than 30 billion US dollars. Obviously, it is short-sighted to evaluate the significance of RMB "entering the blue". For China, the entry of RMB into the blue not only means the international community's affirmation of China's economic achievements and the efforts and process of RMB internationalization, but more importantly, once this status is obtained, both non-governmental organizations and central banks will increase their demand for RMB, so it is wise and inevitable to increase the proportion of RMB in the reserve currency basket of various countries. This demand from the international community will promote the internationalization of RMB and the process of financial reform in China. The author believes that the entry of RMB into the blue will definitely promote the more use of RMB in international trade settlement. The embarrassing history of a big country with the world's second largest economy and the world's largest commodity trading country mainly using other countries' currencies in international settlement will gradually end. In the future, RMB will not only be China's own currency, but also become a global currency with international responsibility, which will push the reform beyond the word "forced". In fact, with the entry of RMB into the blue and internationalization, China's financial reform, whether it is personal investment or the opening of the capital market, is progressing steadily. At the same time, for China, the entry of RMB into the blue can also get rid of its dependence on the US dollar to a certain extent and get rid of the long-standing US dollar trap.
Of course, the entry of RMB into the blue will also challenge China's financial security system, which is not very reassuring. Considering China's lack of experience and soft power in international financial games. Once RMB becomes an international reserve, it will continue to promote its internationalization and free use, especially with the deregulation of capital flow, interest rate and exchange rate, which will inevitably bring greater fluctuations in international capital. How to ensure China's financial security without undermining the reform process has become the biggest problem after the entry of RMB into the blue. The RMB is likely to become the "Trojan horse" of international hot money, testing the fragile financial security dam. Moreover, judging from the current economic fundamentals of China and the trend of RMB exchange rate, with the increasing willingness of residents to allocate wealth around the world, China's capital outflow will inevitably continue, and the depreciation of RMB exchange rate will also lead to fluctuations in the domestic stock market and real estate market. Nothing for nothing. If you want to enjoy the glory of RMB entering the blue, you must bear the risks behind the scenery.
Niall ferguson, a famous American expert in financial history, talked about the global transfer of financial power in his best-selling book The Rise of Money. He said: "Today, with the development of money, we find that the global balance of financial power is changing dramatically. For more than a century, the financial rhythm of the world economy has been set by English-speaking people, first in Britain and then in the United States, but this era is over. " Ferguson imagines that the global financial power structure will be dominated by "China and the United States" in the future. Whether it is exaggerated or not, China has gradually reached the center of the international financial stage occupied by English-speaking countries through a series of steps and the entry of RMB into the blue. Obviously, this is really a very important event.
Introduction to Main International
Milestone Main International has been operating in China for more than ten years, focusing on Australian real estate investment, and is the best Australian real estate investment service provider in Greater China. China is headquartered in the CBD, and its overseas headquarters is located in Brisbane, Australia. In a few short years, we have become a leader in the domestic real estate investment industry in Australia.
We always adhere to the concept of "full service specialization, internationalization of information consultation, maximization of investment appreciation and openness of consulting fees"; We will provide our customers with the best service according to the guiding principle of "careful planning, full investigation, scientific analysis and steady implementation". Let customers get rich returns from the market through their professional ability and strong strength.