How unreliable is Woods Valley's coup, which makes Zhuge Liang just unwilling to adopt it?

"Miracle of Meridian Valley" has always been a topic that everyone likes to discuss. Many people think Zhuge Liang is too cautious. If this plan is adopted, the raiders of Meridian Valley will go straight to Chang 'an, and perhaps the first northern expedition of Shu Han will be successful. History may not be what we see now. Maybe Shu will attack from now on, destroy Wei in one fell swoop, and then clean up Soochow, thus completing the reunification of the three countries. Can Wei Yan's ingenuity really achieve this effect?

Actually, it's not. Let's just say it sounds beautiful. Some people may think that Zhuge Liang and Wei Yan have a bad relationship and can't let him make meritorious deeds, so they resolutely refuse to adopt his strategy. If you really think so, you can only say that your imagination is too rich. In fact, Zhuge Liang did not adopt Wei Yan's plan because he was responsible for the soldiers of the Shu army and even the Shu state. Why do you say that it just sounds beautiful but it doesn't work? How unreliable is it?

First, the difference in military strength between Shu Han and Wei determines that we can only strive for victory steadily. As far as troops are concerned, Wei was not less than 800 thousand at that time, but only about 100 thousand. What is even more embarrassing is that the total population of Shu is 8.9 million, which means that the total population of Shu is similar to that of Wei. You can imagine how big the gap between Shu and Wei will be. Therefore, Zhuge Liang has a maximum of 50,000 to 60,000 people in each northern expedition, and Cao Wei's defensive forces in the west have reached 200,000. It is conceivable that the strength of the two is far from each other, and it doesn't stop there.

Wei's warriors are a dime a dozen. On the other hand, Shu is extremely embarrassed, and there are no generals in Shu. No general can get it except Wei Yan. Even though the commander-in-chief of Chang 'an at that time, Xiahou Mao, had no skill, Chang 'an was firmly defended and heavily guarded, and Guo Huai was waiting nearby. Wei Yan attacked Chang 'an in the form of a long-distance raid, which really didn't stand a good chance. It is precisely because Zhuge Liang understands this that he dare not adopt Wei Yan's plan, so he can only do it step by step.

Second, the strength of Shu Han is too weak. As far as the territorial area is concerned, Wei is several times, accounting for several States in the world, while Shu has only one profit. Not to mention the population, Wei's population is more than five times. Moreover, Wei's economic strength far exceeds that of Shu. It is in the face of such cruel reality that Zhuge Liang did not dare to take too much risks, as he mentioned in the model: "The career of the first emperor was not abandoned halfway. Today's three points make Yizhou tired, which is really dangerous. "

Therefore, Zhuge Liang clearly knows that the crisis in Shu is now a critical moment of life and death. If Wei Yan's plan is adopted, if the logistics supply can't keep up, this army will be destroyed. In fact, the big problem of grain and grass transportation has been plaguing Shu, and there are often delays in grain and grass transportation, sometimes even serious delays in fighter planes. On the contrary, Wei has never had such a problem.

Third, Wei Shu's political talent gap is too big. Wei Cao Pi and Cao Rui are obviously better than each other, and Zhuge Liang knows this. Originally, the national strength of Shu lost a lot after the Yiling War, and the incompetent and ignorant relatives were far from being a good minister, which led to discord between the people in the court. And we know that the war between the two armies seems to be just a confrontation on the battlefield, but it is not. It is related to the contest between the two countries at all levels.

Therefore, out of a clear understanding of Liu Chan's talents, Zhuge Liang never dared to act rashly. Chairman Mao commented on Wei Yan's fantastic plan of Meridian Valley: "This plan is too dangerous!" It really hit the nail on the head. For Shu Han at that time, it could not stand any risks and was only suitable for slow and steady progress. After careful analysis, Zhuge Liang must have seen that the so-called coup was simply unreliable and lacked practicality. If this coup is really adopted, maybe Zhuge Liang is not dead, and Shu Han is already dead!