According to a survey conducted by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, the sales price of houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide rose by 9.2% year-on-year, which was 0.9 percentage points lower than that in April. It rose by 0. 1% month-on-month and dropped by 0. 1 percentage point from April. From the data alone, house prices are still rising, and the long-awaited general decline situation has not appeared. Developers and property buyers have doubts. Can the house price come down?
The answer is naturally yes. The stock market crash itself is a response to the asset price bubble. How to avoid falling house prices? However, the real estate market has its own operating rules, and the rational return of prices is still on the road. Therefore, we must first analyze the operating cycle of housing prices.
The cycle of house price operation is similar to the economic cycle, and it will inevitably go through multiple stages of development. The first is the rebound in prices. After a long period of equilibrium, house prices rose slightly under the impetus of demand. Its performance is that the prices of first-hand houses and second-hand houses have basically risen simultaneously, and there are not many components in the housing price bubble. Second, prices have risen rapidly. Investment demand obviously occupies a dominant position, and house prices begin to break away from the equilibrium position of supply and demand. Its performance is that the price increase of second-hand housing is obviously higher than that of first-hand housing, and the housing price bubble begins to accumulate gradually. The third is the gradual decline in price increases. The monthly price increase is not the biggest, but it still maintains a high month-on-month increase. Its performance is that the price of first-hand housing has risen more than that of second-hand housing, and the housing price bubble has expanded rapidly. Fourth, the price is slightly consolidating. Whether it is a first-hand house or a second-hand house, the growth rate of the chain has dropped sharply, close to the level of the recovery stage. Its performance is that the price increase of first-hand housing is significantly higher than that of second-hand housing, and the turning point of housing prices is beginning to appear. Fifth, the general decline in house prices.
Why do house prices show the above trend? Obviously, it is the result of the game between developers and speculative funds. As we all know, speculative funds are the initiator of the housing price bubble. In the rising stage of housing prices, the demand for self-occupation is dominant, and speculative funds are also partly involved. Due to the profit-seeking nature of speculative funds, after the first-hand houses are eroded by low prices, they often lurk and wait for the opportunity to complete the arbitrage process at a higher price. As a result, the price increase of second-hand houses is significantly higher than that of first-hand houses, and house prices have entered a stage of rapid rise. In hindsight, developers began to wake up, so they covered the plate or opened at a sky-high price. After all, with the support of second-hand housing prices, property buyers will not feel too outrageous. As house prices have risen for some time, speculative funds know that there is little room for profit and their participation is weakened, so developers have the upper hand in this round of game. The increase of yishoufang once again became the weather vane of the market, but the increase slowed down. At this point, buyers are still desperate, speculative funds flee, market transactions begin to drop significantly, and house prices enter a small consolidation.
"Long-term decline" is the four-word motto of the stock market, which also applies to the trend of house prices. After the transaction shrank sharply, house prices stagnated, developers worried that the transaction would not go up, and speculative funds worried that the price would fall. Property buyers have also seen the clues and generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude. In the end, the price of second-hand houses collapsed, and some speculative funds stopped due to the length of property rights. The price of second-hand houses has come down, can the first-hand houses be immune to it? Obviously not. The price comparison effect and the increasingly tight capital chain force developers to sell houses at reduced prices. As a result, the general decline in house prices has also appeared.
Take the Shenzhen real estate market, which has recently led the decline, as an example. After three stages of recovery, rapid rise and gradual reduction, it reached its peak in June last year at 5438+ 10, and then it consolidated at a high level and fell back slightly. After March this year, prices began to accelerate, and both inside and outside the SAR entered the downward channel. It has become a fact that house prices have generally fallen. The housing price trend in Shenzhen explains the housing price cycle well, so it is not a unique phenomenon in the market. The monitoring of housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in May showed that the sales price of second-hand houses dropped by 0.2% for the first time. The price of second-hand houses began to fall, and the price of first-hand houses was naturally in jeopardy. After the national housing price consolidation for half a year, will the general decline in housing prices be far behind?
■ People's livelihood perspective
The top three declines: Baoan, Longgang and Yantian.
Yesterday, the average transaction price of ordinary residential commercial housing in the same area in Shenzhen in the second quarter of 2008 released by the Municipal Bureau of Land and Real Estate showed that the average transaction price of ordinary residential commercial housing in the same area in our city continued to fall in the second quarter of this year, and the average price of 56 districts in the city was lower than that in the first quarter, 1 flat. Among them, Bao 'an District has the largest decline, followed by Longgang District, Yantian District and Nanshan District, and Futian District and Luohu District have smaller declines.
The average price of 1 Longgang exceeded 5000 for the first time.
The data released by the Municipal Bureau of Land and Real Estate lists the average transaction price of ordinary residential commercial housing in 57 districts of the city. According to the transaction price list, the average transaction price in Baoan District dropped the most, by 4. 1%, from 5,978.73 yuan in the first quarter to 57 12. 16 yuan in the second quarter.
The average transaction price in Longgang District fell below the 5,000 yuan mark for the first time, from 5,082.92 yuan per square meter in the first quarter to 4,872.83 yuan, a decrease of nearly 3.6%. Among them, the area with the highest average price is Longgang Central District, which is 6,436.76 yuan per square meter, down 8% from 6,996 yuan in the first quarter; The biggest decline was in Longgang area, which dropped from 5,907.42 yuan per square meter in the first quarter to 5,375.75 yuan, a decrease of 9%.
The average transaction price in Yantian District fell below RMB 10,000 for the first time, from RMB per square meter 10097.45 in the first quarter to RMB 9775.438+07, a decrease of 3.25%. The resilience of ordinary residential commercial housing in xiaomeisha area is strong, and the average price is the same as that in the first quarter, which is 1 13 15 yuan per square meter; In the other three areas, Sha Tau Kok, Yantian and Dameisha decreased by 4%, 4% and 5% respectively.
The average transaction prices in Nanshan District, Futian District and Luohu District were 1 1349.43 yuan per square meter, 1 15 15.77 yuan and 8675.9 yuan, respectively, with a decrease of 2.74% and19 yuan.
It is understood that this is the third decline in the average transaction price of ordinary commercial housing in the same region of our city after the fourth quarter of last year.
The average price in Hongshuwan area is the highest.
After comparison, the reporter found that the area with the highest average price in the city is still Hongshuwan area, which is RMB 17524.4 per square meter, but this price is 3.5% lower than that in the first quarter 18 160 yuan. Futian Central District and Xiangmihu District ranked second and third respectively, with 15940.63 yuan and 158 19.64 yuan, respectively, down by 0.9% and 2% compared with the first quarter.
The lowest average price in the city is still Pingdi, Kengzi and Pingshan, and the average price has dropped from 3,769 yuan per square meter in the first quarter to 37 12.49 yuan, a decrease of 1.5%.
Among the six districts, Nanshan District has the biggest difference in average price, the highest in Hongshuwan District is RMB per square meter 17524.4, and the lowest in Xili District is only RMB 8855.35438+0 yuan, with a difference of RMB 8669.
The average price of Luohu in the special zone is the lowest.
It is understood that according to the Measures for the Administration of House Demolition of Public Infrastructure Construction Projects in Shenzhen, which was implemented last year, when the government needs to demolish houses due to public infrastructure construction, if it chooses the highest price between the house evaluation price and the average transaction price of commercial houses in the same region, it will give monetary compensation to the demolished people. The city is divided into 57 districts, and the average transaction price of commercial housing in each district is published regularly by the Municipal Demolition Office every quarter.
According to the introduction of the average transaction price research group of ordinary residential commercial housing in the same area of the city, in order to reflect the actual situation of market changes in a timely, objective and comprehensive manner, update the original sample data in real time, and conduct a follow-up survey on nearly 350 real estates in 57 districts to fully grasp the market changes. Secondly, we classify all kinds of houses in the sample data in detail and compare them with the same period of last year, focusing on second-hand houses, and also refer to the price decline of first-hand new houses. In addition, the theoretical calculation results are adjusted by combining the relevant data of real estate prices published by relevant departments in Shenzhen (such as ring index, average transaction price of each district, etc.). ).
Because the foam composition of ordinary commercial housing is less than that of high-grade residential housing, the price changes are relatively stable. According to the calculation target and technical route, the final result of this calculation shows that the overall price level of ordinary residential commercial housing market in the second quarter of this year continued to fall compared with the price level in the first quarter, and the decline rate was larger than that in the first quarter, and the decline rate in different regions was slightly different. Among them, the biggest decline was in Baoan District, followed by Longgang District and Yantian District, and Nanshan District ranked fourth, with smaller declines in Futian District and Luohu District. The average transaction price in Futian District surpassed that in Nanshan District, ranking first. The average transaction price in Nanshan District ranks second, Yantian District ranks third, and Luohu District has the lowest transaction price in the whole SAR. Outside the SAR, the average transaction price in Baoan District is still higher than that in Longgang District.
4 Real estate gradually returns to rationality
In an interview with reporters, experts said that since the second half of 2007, the state has successively issued a series of macro-control policies for the real estate market, which has had a great impact on the real estate market in Shenzhen: since 2005, the momentum of continuous rising house prices has finally been curbed, and the property market has entered a continuous downturn, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and a sharp drop in transaction volume. According to statistics, in 2007, the sales area of commercial housing in the city was 55510.6 million square meters, down 30.04% year-on-year; Among them, the residential sales area was 5.004 million square meters, down 29.04% year-on-year, the lowest since 2000. At the same time, the sales price of commercial housing has also declined. The continuous decline in the average transaction price of ordinary residential commercial housing in the same region also reflects the weakness of the primary property market and the continuous decline in housing prices.
The expert pointed out that since 2008, Shenzhen real estate market transactions have been in a downturn, and there has been a situation of "double decline in quantity and price"; Since March, with the emergence of some new properties such as "special-priced houses", the property market has shown signs of slow recovery, but the market is still running at a low level and the transaction area of commercial housing is still shrinking. From the market point of view, this is an adjustment to the excessive growth of housing prices in recent years; With the gradual decline of housing prices, it shows that real estate is gradually returning to rationality. He predicted that overall, the Shenzhen real estate market will still be in the stage of development and adjustment in the future.