I am quite clear about the time node in Guangzhou. Mizhai Butler started to do second-hand business in Guangzhou in August last year, and opened bills one after another in early September. From September to 65438+February, the whole Guangzhou market is relatively stable, and the market has been rising slowly but not exaggerating, which is in line with the temperament of Laoguang drinking morning tea slowly.
The owner is also very accommodating. There are few temporary price increases or stood up, and there is room for price concessions in the interview.
This is because Guangzhou has never risen sharply for many years. The second-hand housing market has a large stock, which is the off-season of the property market all the year round. Second-hand transactions need half a year or even longer, and the owners can clinch a deal, and they will never dare to toss about any demon moths again.
However, since last year, after the owners in the west of Shenzhen found that the house was no longer a commodity, but a tool to get rich, many balances were broken, including a calm property market, a calm mind and a calm life.
After half a year's slow stew, the Guangzhou property market suddenly turned from warm to hot in late February of 65438+, which showed the wandering mentality of the owners and followed the Shenzhen owners' association to control prices.
2
65438+the end of February is a time node worth pondering. This time period is not good, there is no stimulus policy, and even the land king has not been photographed. The property market suddenly accelerated. Why?
In fact, the Guangzhou property market has been slowly warming up for half a year, and the potential energy has been accumulating, eventually changing from quantitative to qualitative.
After more than half a year of subtle market education, the gentle and simple uncle Guangzhou finally learned new tricks. Lao Guang submitted a warlords to Shen: Second brother, I'm hanging out with you. What do you think of my homework copy?
three
202 1 On the first day of the Lunar New Year, Guangzhou suddenly fell into the upsurge of price control and price increase. Sure enough, the stability of these years is false, and the tide of capital strikes, and no one can resist the impulse to get rich. At present, Guangzhou's price control market mainly appears in Zhujiang New Town and Huangpu. Why does it appear in these two areas? Because most people with hukou and funds stare at Zhujiang New Town, most foreigners without hukou stare at Huangpu. The number of high-quality markets in these two regions is limited, and the demand exceeds supply for half a year, which finally burst the owner's mentality.
However, it is still a little tender for Guangzhou to learn from Shenzhen, because the underlying logic of Guangzhou and Shenzhen is different.
First, the amount of funds entering Guangzhou is much lower than that entering Shenzhen, and the number of properties that can be quickly lifted is limited;
Second, the stock of second-hand houses in Guangzhou is more than 70,000 sets, which is more than double that of Shenzhen. If some properties rise too fast, the surrounding properties will inevitably follow suit, which will eventually stabilize the increase in the leading market;
Third, in 20021year, except Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing, they all entered the rising channel, and some second-tier cities were also eager to rise. If 20 19 and 2020 are outstanding in Shenzhen, then 202 1 is likely to be the asset year of many cities. After the diversion of funds, it is difficult for Guangzhou to replicate the market in Shenzhen.
It is definitely not wise for Guangzhou owners to raise housing prices substantially. If it leads to supervision, it will not be worth the loss.
Slowly rising is the best choice for Guangzhou, but in the face of huge interests, everyone is a subtle egoist, and no one will consider maximizing the overall interests.
four
202 1 how will the Guangzhou property market go?
Unlike other cities, Guangzhou is already winning figures, and what is certain is that it will continue to rise.
It usually takes a city more than one year to complete a rising cycle. It has been one and a half years since August of Shenzhen 19, and there is still no sign of flameout.
Guangzhou, a slow-heating city that swallows water, will never complete a cycle for less than one year. Even if the regulation is triggered in the middle, it will not be a big problem from May last year to the second half of this year or even the end of this year.
It is estimated that Guangzhou's final increase, compared with Shenzhen, most hotspots and degree rooms in the west of Shenzhen have doubled, with at least 80% revenue.
Guangzhou can't compare with Shenzhen, but according to the law of this round of 28 differentiation, the income of a small number of leading stocks will not be much worse than that of Shenzhen, and it is likely to touch 80%. At present, the leading market in Guangzhou has increased by 30%, and it is expected that there will be 40-50% room by the end of the year.
Guangzhou has been taking the slow-moving route for half a year, and a landmark owner-controlled event suddenly happened on New Year's Day. This incident has two sides, on the one hand, it may lead to an acceleration of the rise and trigger regulation; On the other hand, it will increase the exposure of Guangzhou, trigger more funds to flow into Guangzhou, and gain higher returns.
Can I continue to buy Guangzhou at present? Of course you can.
Just like the hot spot in Shenzhen suddenly detonated after the Double Eleven, Baozhong jumped from more than 80,000 to more than 90,000, and many houses in Bihai rose by 500,000. At that time, many people were worried about standing guard in a high position and didn't want to be too tired to rob the house. They chose to give up. Everyone knows what happened afterwards.
Guangzhou is also taking this road, so remember that it must be a good house that you can rob very hard. Even if the owner uses various tricks to temporarily increase the price, it is no problem to give it to him and resolutely win it.
The house you worked so hard to buy today will easily sell at a high price in the future; On the contrary, if you buy a house easily today, it will be very painful to sell it later. God is fair, giving everyone neither more nor less.
five
What if these high-quality leading prices continue to make room shortage and there is no room to sell?
I don't recommend waiting all the time. In Guangzhou now, time is harvest. The longer you wait, the less you get.
As I said before, if the leading market rises too fast, the secondary alternative market around it will inevitably rise, so the secondary income may not be lower than the current primary income.
Let's do a simple algorithm. We assume that the primary market will eventually rise by 80%, the secondary market will eventually rise by 60%, the primary market will rise by 30%, and the secondary market will only rise by 10%. At present, no matter whether you start from the first-class or the second-class disk, there is still 50% income.
Therefore, if there is no room to sell in the first-class market, don't be stubborn, and wait until the income of 10% is gone. It is wise to turn the disk quickly.
Just like when we were in Shenzhen, a customer insisted on buying Bihai at the end of 19. At that time, Bihai rose by 40% and there was no room to buy. We guided our customers to buy the second-class discs in Xixiang at that time. I calculated an account today, and the income exceeded the blue sea in the same period.
I just checked the data. After half a year's regulation and control, the second-hand houses of Shenzhen Chain Home have actually dropped to a record low, with only 35,540 sets, with both volume and price falling. Many popular properties have no room to sell.
If Guangzhou continues the old road of Shenzhen, then the story is far from reaching its climax, and it is still early to end. At present, the number of second-hand houses in Guangzhou is 75,888, and it won't be long before this number will drop below 70,000.
At present, Guangzhou may not be the most profitable city, but it is the city with the most certain winning number.