Reasons for the downward trend of bank interest rates

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From: Network Date: 2022-05- 18

Peninsula all-media reporter Jiang Haifeng

The credit policy welcomes new news again. On May 15, the People's Bank of China and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Relevant Issues Concerning the Adjustment of Differentiated Housing Credit Policies, which stated that the lower interest rate limit of the first set of commercial personal housing loans was adjusted to be no less than the quoted interest rate in the loan market for the same period minus 20 basis points, which meant that the lower interest rate limit of the first set of commercial personal housing loans could reach 4.4%. The reporter's investigation found that since the beginning of this year, the mortgage interest rate in Qingdao market has been continuously lowered. At present, the bank has implemented an interest rate of 4.4%. The wait-and-see mood of most buyers is still relatively strong, and industry insiders say it will take a long time for the market to pick up.

Policy: The lower limit of the interest rate of individual housing loan will be lowered to no less than 4.4%.

/kloc-On the afternoon of May 0/5, the People's Bank of China and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Relevant Issues Concerning the Adjustment of Differentiated Housing Credit Policy, which stated that the lower limit of the interest rate of the first set of commercial personal housing loans was adjusted to not less than the quoted interest rate in the loan market minus 20 basis points. The lower limit of the interest rate policy for two sets of commercial personal housing loans shall be implemented according to the existing regulations. According to the latest loan market quotation (LPR) on April 20th, the LPR for 1 year is 3.7%, and the LPR for five years and above is 4.6%. This means that according to the current LPR of 4.6% over five years, the lower limit of the interest rate of the first commercial personal housing loan can reach 4.4%.

At the same time, the notice stressed that, on the basis of the national unified lower limit of loan interest rate, the People's Bank of China and the agencies dispatched by the China Banking Regulatory Commission guided the self-discipline mechanism of interest rate pricing in the provincial market in accordance with the principle of "making policy according to the city", and independently determined the lower limit of interest rate fluctuation of the first and second sets of commercial personal housing loans in cities within their jurisdiction according to the changes in the real estate market situation and the requirements of the city government.

Market: Many projects are "hot" and the wait-and-see mood is still strong.

The release of the above news has made the circle of friends in the real estate industry really lively. However, after the excitement, the market has not changed significantly.

These two days, the reporter found that many projects are releasing some publicity advertisements related to interest rate cuts. For example, a project in Chengyang advertised that "the central bank suddenly cut interest rates, the mortgage interest rate reached a low of nearly 10 years, the property market was strong, and the time had come to buy a house", attracting the attention of buyers; A real estate in Jimo advertised that "heavy benefits are coming, and existing homes are at the right time", saying that "the cost and pressure of buying a house will drop again, and the signal of stabilizing the property market will increase, and buying a house is at the right time". However, the reporter learned that in the past two days, the number of visits and turnover of the sales offices of these two projects has not changed significantly.

The property consultant of a real estate in Shibei District told the reporter that most people who come to the sales office to see the house are people who have their own willingness to buy a house, and rarely go from wait-and-see to "start" because the mortgage interest rate is lowered. "Recently, several customers originally planned to book a house, but when they saw the news that the central bank cut interest rates, they wanted to sign the contract later, and then they could lower interest rates. But some customers who have been hesitating have seen nothing when they saw this news. " The above-mentioned property consultant said.

In this regard, Ms. Liu, a citizen who has the intention to buy a house, said that it is a good thing to lower the mortgage interest rate, but for buyers, the biggest expenditure in the early stage is the down payment, and the monthly supply is only the icing on the cake. Therefore, if you buy your own house, you will still observe the market more and make long-term plans according to your own assets.

Another citizen, Ms. Qiu, said that due to the influence of the big environment, the market in her industry has been declining in the past two years, and her income has also been reduced by half. Therefore, she can only postpone the house change plan for these two years. "I still want to wait until the environment is stable, so as not to affect my normal life in the future." Ms. Qiu said.

Qingdao: At present, it has been implemented by banks, and the interest rate of the first home loan is 4.4%.

After the central bank introduced the above policies, what changes have taken place in the current mortgage interest rate of the island city?

The reporter consulted a number of joint-stock commercial banks and learned that the current mainstream loan interest rate for the first suite in the island city is 4.9%, and some banks can be as low as 4.6%. At present, ICBC can achieve 4.4%, and other banks will follow suit in the near future. For the second home, the interest rate of the second home mortgage of most banks can reach 5.2%. The reporter found out that since the five-year LPR was adjusted to 4.6% in June 5438+this year1October, the mortgage interest rate has been declining continuously. The mainstream mortgage interest rate of the first suite was adjusted from 5.45% to 5.35%, 5.3% and 5.2% until now 4.9% or even 4.4%, and the mainstream mortgage interest rate of the second suite was adjusted from 5.75% to 5.65% and 5.5%.

What is the impact of the downward adjustment of mortgage interest rate on the "money bag" of buyers? In this regard, the reporter roughly calculated an account. Suppose the property buyer buys the first suite in the island city, and the total loan is 6,543,800 yuan, with equal principal and interest and repayment for 30 years. If the mainstream interest rate of the first suite implemented at the beginning of the year is 5.45%, the monthly mortgage payment is about 5647 yuan. If the mainstream interest rate of the first suite is 4.9%, the monthly payment is about 5307 yuan; If the interest rate of the first home loan is 4.4%, the monthly repayment is 5007.6 yuan.

Some insiders recalled that around the middle of 20 17, the mortgage interest rate of the island city began to rise continuously. When credit outlets were "tight" in previous years, the interest rate of the first home loan in the island city basically rose 10%~ 15% on the basis of the benchmark interest rate of 5.65%, that is, 6.22% ~ 6.50. "At present, the interest rate of 4.9% of the mainstream mortgage of the first suite in Qingdao can be said to be the lowest since the second half of 20 17. If the interest rate of 4.4% can be implemented, the repayment of buyers will be reduced even more. "

At the same time, the reporter learned that at present, the lending speed of island city mortgage is also very fast. "From the time the customer submits the information to the time the payment is made, it can be solved within one week." A personal loan manager of a joint-stock commercial bank said.

In this regard, some netizens in the Peninsula House Club said that the house they just bought recently got a loan in six days, which was really fast. "But I regret buying it early. If I buy it later, I can catch up with this wave of mortgage relief. "

Industry: It will take time to lower the threshold and boost confidence.

Regarding the differentiated credit policy issued by the central bank, Wang Xiaoying, chief analyst of Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, thinks that the interest rate of the first home mortgage can be as low as 4.4%, which has returned to the mortgage level from September 20 15 to the first half of 20 17, which is also an important reason for the national real estate warming in 20 16. On the one hand, this policy has lowered the threshold for buyers to buy houses, on the other hand, it has also boosted market confidence. It is expected to have a far-reaching impact on the future long-term market.

Wang Yulin, a senior market analyst at Zhuo Yi Data, believes that the downward adjustment of the credit policy will also make buyers have higher expectations for the downward adjustment of future interest rates, and will also encourage wait-and-see mood to some extent; At the same time, the recent rapid changes in policies have also increased the uncertainty of buyers' judgment on market fundamentals, which will, to some extent, lead to a decline in short-term purchase intentions. "Judging from the latest social integration data released in April, household loans decreased by 21700 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 745.3 billion yuan. The negative growth of mortgage shows to some extent that people's enthusiasm for buying houses is still not high, so it will take some time for the market to recover. " Wang Yulin said.

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