Why did Hong Kong house prices plummet from 65438 to 0997?

On 20 10, a national quiz began, and many developers, experts, scholars and property buyers participated. It is estimated that everyone knows that they have guessed right, that is, the price trend of 20 1 1. A report released by the Economic Research Institute of Renmin University of China uncovered this big puzzle. The main point of the report is that house prices will fall by 20% in the first half of 201/kloc-0. The reason given was that the macro-control at that time, especially the real estate control was very strict, and the developers' money began to tighten. Up to now, 20 1 1 has passed more than half a year, and the answer has not been revealed, but today I don't want to explore who guessed right and who guessed wrong. What I want to explore is whether the credit of developers has really tightened. In the book Why Our Life Is So Helpless, I specially checked the real data at that time, which was terrible. Because only in the first three quarters of 20 10, there were 600 billion loans from developers. Do you know how many loans the bank made in 2009? Tell you, it's 598 billion yuan. Many experts say that the characteristic of China's banking industry in 2009 has always been a huge amount of credit. However, the current situation is that the loans issued in the first three quarters of 20 10 are even more than in the whole year of 2009, and at the same time exceed the sum of 2007 and 2008. Isn't this terrible? Through this set of figures, I want to tell you that developers are not short of money at all now! In other words, we will continue to see developers hoarding land and real estate. Therefore, what we are talking about now is that house prices should fall or are about to fall, which may be more about morality and morality. However, it is this moral judgment that, to a great extent, has led to greater suffering for the people. Why do I say that? There is a simple reason. It is precisely because some so-called experts say that this house price will fall everywhere that the people will have hope. But what is the actual situation? House prices go up and then up. For ordinary people, it has actually become a kind of torture, just like cutting meat with a blunt knife, which makes you die a little. It is better to let everyone die happily. More interestingly, whether house prices are rising or falling now has constituted a new watershed. Intellectuals with different opinions are divided into "bad singers" and "bad singers". Actually, I think these two groups are a bit strange. If it is to suppress housing prices, then the policies introduced by our government, including the new "National Five Articles" and "National Ten Articles" introduced before, will not succeed. Why? Because it's all superficial. It is even more ridiculous to guess the house price. Obviously, this is a wild guess, and the reasons given simply can't stand scrutiny. Of course, no matter how noisy these experts and scholars are, I have to declare first. Many people left messages on the Internet saying what Professor Lang said. I want to tell you clearly here that I am not a stock critic or a financial expert. I never predict what will happen to the stock market and the property market. I never talk about this topic. Why? Because I am not good enough, and it is not my style. I just want to talk about how the current situation is caused. This "Beijing-style" decline actually belongs to psychological massage, which only temporarily relieves everyone's mood and does not touch the essence of the problem at all. What is the essence of the problem? Do you think, why is the house price in the city center so high, or is it rising? Moreover, even if it has been soaring, why do so many people want to buy a house in downtown? Do you find it strange? Actually, it's nothing strange. The reason is simple, because all good resources are concentrated in the city center, such as schools and hospitals. And we ordinary people, in order to let our children receive better education and to let our family members receive better treatment when they are sick, can only live as close as possible to the city center, which is why the house price in the city center is so high, and it is still in short supply. Think about it. If good resources are moved to Zhuozhou, Hebei, or Yanjiao, will Beijing's 234th Ring Road still be so congested? Will the house price still be like this? So the essence of the problem now is the resource allocation system. If we don't fundamentally change this distribution system and just want to curb this strong demand by some means, the housing prices in central cities will not come down at all. There is another problem that deserves our attention, that is, whether the house price is high or low, and what indicators should be used to measure it? Let's take Beijing for example. If 30,000 yuan is high and 20,000 yuan is high, isn't 6.5438+0.9 million yuan high? So, in fact, we are now entering a misunderstanding. We regard the rise and fall of house prices as the most important indicator to judge whether the real estate is in crisis. What I want to tell you is that it is not that there must be a crisis when the house price rises, but that there will be no crisis when the house price falls. The problem is not that simple. What is the most reliable indicator? It is the endurance of ordinary people. Let me give you an example. Do you know why Hong Kong real estate collapsed on 1997? If, as the media said, you say that Soros attacked Hong Kong, then I tell you that you are completely mistaken, because that is only a superficial phenomenon. According to our survey, the level of mortgage payment in Hong Kong was already very high before the 1997 financial tsunami, and it was 90% in 1994 and 1995, then it fell to 70% in 1995, and then it rose again in 1996. Think about it. People in Hong Kong took 90%, 70%, 1 10% of their income to pay off their mortgage, and even overdrawn. How do they spend it? The result that ordinary people have no money to spend is the sudden decline of Hong Kong's economy. If this situation continues, how can Hong Kong's property market not collapse? Soros's sniper is only the last straw to crush the camel. And from the gross national product of China and Hongkong, we can see that the economy after the financial crisis of 1998 is not the worst. After that, Hong Kong's economy experienced two recessions. When SARS broke out in 2003, Hong Kong's tourism and hotel industries almost closed down. In this process, real estate prices are falling and the economy is depressed. One of the most important reasons is that the monthly payment is too high, which overdraws the wallets of Hong Kong people. It was not until this ratio fell below 30% that Hong Kong's economy began to improve. So, 30% is a magic number. Why do you say that? Let me analyze it for you. If ordinary people use 30% of their income to repay their mortgage, the remaining 70% can be spent. Consumption can boost the economy and the economy can grow steadily. Then let me ask you, what about 70% of the mortgage burden? Does that leave only 30% for consumption? Do you know how terrible the consequences of the sharp decline in the consumption power of ordinary people are? The whole economy will shrink. Think about it, if ordinary people don't consume, who will the products produced by so many enterprises be sold to? If the products can't be sold, the inventory will increase. What should I do? Only layoffs. And then what closed down. Does this form a vicious circle? This is terrible. What is this? The depression began. Therefore, as a country, we must ensure that at most 30% of ordinary people's income can be used for mortgage repayment and 70% can be used for other expenses, so that the economy will not go downhill and there will be no depression. So, let's estimate our present situation in China. In our first-tier cities in China, if the mortgage interest rate is 5.22%, the people in the first-tier cities are in debt of 60% to 89%, far exceeding the 30% stipulated by the United States. People in second-tier cities are not much better, up to 40% to 60%. This shows that the current first-tier cities are very dangerous. If the loan interest rate is further raised, for example, from the current 5.22% to 6.07%, the monthly repayment ratio in first-tier cities will be 63% to 95%, and that in second-tier cities will be 45% to 65%. Look at the national average. If the interest rate is 5.22%, the national average is 47%; if it is 6.07%, the national average is 50%. Of course, at present, our proportion is not as high as before the US subprime mortgage crisis and the China-Hong Kong 1997 crash, but the proportion of 50% is already very high, which shows that our current property market is not a healthy one. What's more, the highest repayment rate in first-tier cities is close to 95%, which is terrible. Behind the high housing prices, there is actually a deeper problem, that is, high housing prices have made our entire country's economy lose its creativity. I'm not alarmist. Think about it. All people work hard and make money. Where did they invest all their money after that? I tell you, I didn't invest in industry, nor did I spend it on consumption. Basically bought a house. This is very morbid and the most terrible thing. Think about it, for ordinary people, their income is basically used to pay back the monthly payment, so the real consumption is reduced. For people who have a lot of spare money, they originally wanted to invest something. However, after a round of investigation, they found that there was basically no money to be made in both manufacturing and service industries. So why bother to do it? I'd better take it to real estate speculation. This is really terrible, because for a country, the decline of the whole creativity is actually the biggest crisis. You see, 10 years ago, Ma Yunhua founded Alibaba with 500,000 yuan, Mark's Tencent with almost 500,000 yuan and Chen Tianqiao with 500,000 yuan. They all started their own businesses, almost 500 thousand Look at the young people now. If they have 500 thousand in their hands, they will definitely not invest in entrepreneurship. Then why? I must have paid the down payment with this 500 thousand.