Analysis on the Background of China Wine Industry
With the improvement of people's living standards in China, especially the development and growth of the middle class, the consumption of wine shows a rapid growth trend, and the proportion of wine consumption continues to increase. From 1996 to 2004, the wine production in China increased from 17000 tons to 400000 tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 1 1. 3%, accelerated growth in the past two years, the output growth in 2003 13. 3%, the output increased by 17 compared with 2004. 6%。 At present, the consumption of wine only accounts for 1% of the total annual consumption of wine in China, and the per capita consumption is about half a bottle (750ml/ bottle), which is 6% of the world. With the increase of income, the emphasis on the health care function of wine and the acceptance of the unique culture of wine, there is a great room for the development of wine in China. According to statistics, the per capita annual consumption of wine in Shanghai is currently 1.25 kg. In Shanghai liquor market, wine has become the consumption second only to beer. It will maintain a relatively fast growth rate in the next few years. The Italian Foreign Trade Commission predicts that the wine market in China will increase by 10 times in the next decade.
In recent years, China wine industry has made remarkable achievements in the construction of raw material base, manufacturing technology and product quality improvement, which has provided an accelerated foundation for the development of the industry.
The new standard of industry competition situation promotes industry concentration
In July, 2004, the state issued a policy to cancel "semi-juice wine", and semi-juice wine, which accounts for a large part of the wine market in China, was introduced to the market, making room for real wine varieties, and at the same time avoiding the low-price competition in China wine industry to a great extent, making enterprises pay more attention to product quality. The draft of the new national standard GB 15037-2004 has been released and sent to the National Standardization Committee for review, and it is expected to be promulgated this year. The new standard will strictly stipulate raw materials, origin, production year, variety and so on. These changes have intensified the competition for raw materials. In the whole wine industry, the phenomenon of "speaking by strength" will become more and more common. Very few manufacturers with a large amount of capital will take the opportunity to occupy better raw material producing areas and further strengthen their product quality advantages. Under their "running", small and medium-sized manufacturers will come to the end of the road and eventually form most of the raw materials, markets and products. This is a good opportunity for the current powerful wine manufacturers.
The reduction of tariffs has brought about a new competitive pattern in the wine market.
Since New Year's Day in 2005, the tariff on imported wine has been greatly reduced by 30 percentage points, and the quantity of imported wine will increase greatly, which will have a certain impact on domestic middle and high-grade wines. Domestic enterprises introduce foreign advanced technology or cooperate with foreign-funded enterprises to gain advanced management experience, launch high-end products and face the competition directly, instead of relying on the traditional price war of domestic enterprises, which is helpful to improve the competitiveness of domestic wine industry. China wine market is in a rapid growth stage, and domestic wine will still occupy the dominant position in the market for a long time.
Development trend of wine in 2005
1, the concept of real estate is getting hotter and hotter. The new national standard emphasizes the concept of origin and puts forward a new direction for the wine industry. In order to cater to this direction, a large number of manor wine enterprises have emerged, and the original wine manufacturers have also begun to introduce local wine. In fact, last year, the Great Wall, as one of the top three and the pioneer of manor wine, developed the Portuguese Garden series. According to international practice, the quality, price, taste and style of finished wine are largely determined by grape producing areas, and the concept of vintage wine has been gradually diluted. With the influx of a large number of foreign wines, it has brought new ideas to Chinese wine culture, brought China wine market into line with international standards, and local wines that have been popular abroad for a long time will become popular in China.
The ice wine market is becoming more and more popular. In recent years, high-grade liquor, represented by ice wine, has become popular, especially after semi-juice wine was banned, many mountain wine enterprises turned to produce ice wine. Because the raw materials used for ice wine are the same as those used for mountain wine, the climatic conditions needed are similar. However, the concepts of mountain wine and semi-juice wine were confused in the early stage, which led to the decline of mountain wine after the semi-juice wine was abandoned, and the original mountain wine enterprises had to find another way out. Mogao, who first put forward the concept of ice wine in China, has entered the ranks of the second largest wine group in China, and Tonghua wine industry, once the leader of mountain wine enterprises, followed closely, launching high-grade ice red and ice white. Because the climatic conditions for producing ice wine are difficult to meet, there are few ice wine products that meet international standards in China at present. Manufacturers such as Great Wall, Dynasty and Changyu will not set foot in this industry for the time being due to the limitation of the origin of raw materials, so enterprises such as Tonghua, Mogao and Changbai Mountain, which are in the second line, are likely to make use of the popularity of ice wine to sprint to the first line. In addition, the output of ice wine is very small, and foreign ice wine can't meet the demand of domestic market, so it can't be exported to China in large quantities. On the contrary, this relatively calm market is undoubtedly a once-in-a-lifetime development opportunity for state-owned ice wine enterprises.
3. Fruit wine is very popular. With people's growing pursuit of health, wine began to develop in the direction of drinks, and fruit wine was the product of a large number of births in this case. Fruit wine usually has a good taste, which is loved by people of all ages in Xian Yi, and most people emphasize the health care function. The most outstanding fruit wine is chinese wolfberry wine. Since the listing of "Qinong" was recognized by consumers, many brands of chinese wolfberry wine began to flock to the market, especially products from Ningxia. There are many other fruit wines, such as litchi wine and mint wine. It is foreseeable that fruit wines will be an instant hit this year.
4, change the channel, warm at night. The "Sleepless Tonight" wine of Gu Jing Manor attracted much attention at the Spring Fair. The name, packaging and price of this wine reflect one thing-it is specially designed for night shows. This is a signal of the transformation of wine sales channels. For a long time, the consumption of night wine is mainly beer. Although there is a certain share of wine, the sales volume is generally not optimistic. In view of this situation, it is likely that manufacturers will improve their products in time and tailor the night market wine according to the consumption characteristics of the night market, because the profit of the night market is incomparable with other channels. Where there is profit, the sensitive "sense of smell" of manufacturers cannot escape.
Prospect analysis of children's wine
The entry of Xinhualian completely changed the face of the company.
Xinhualian is a newly active private enterprise, and its high popularity largely comes from the successful marketing of Jinliufu liquor. Xinhualian Group sells Jinliufu with brand name and builds Jinliufu brand with good marketing methods, which has created a miracle in the liquor market under the background of shrinking liquor industry and maintained a 30% growth for six consecutive years. In 2003, it sold nearly 60,000 tons, with a sales income of 2 billion yuan, ranking the top three in the domestic liquor industry. "Jinliufu" provided nearly 1 for Xinhualian Group.
Xinhua Lian became the largest shareholder of Tong Tong Liquor Industry by acquiring 40.704 million shares (accounting for 29.07%) held by Tonghua Changsheng Agricultural Comprehensive Economic Development Company, the largest shareholder of Tong Yuan Liquor Industry. At present, Xinhualian liquor elites who are in charge of marketing "Jinliufu" have taken over the operation of children's wine and reconstructed children's wine, hoping to reproduce the myth of "Jinliufu".
Xinhualian also has rich experience in wine marketing. Xinhualian is not a novice in the wine market. 200 1 The main products of Shangri-La wine industry acquired at 3 1 ten thousand yuan are highland barley dry red and wine dry red. After Xinhualian Group entered the company, Shangri-La Liquor turned losses in that year, with sales reaching/kloc-0.80 billion yuan and profits exceeding 20 million yuan in 2004.
Streamline institutions and adjust personnel. After Xinhualian entered Tonghua Liquor Industry, 37 departments were reduced to nine, the number of companies was reduced from 1200 to 650, and the management was reduced from 200 to 100. After layoffs, staff expenses will save more than 7 million yuan a year. At the same time, Jinliufu of Xinhualian entered Tonghua wine industry one after another. Wang Xiaoming, former executive vice president of Jinliufu, served as the general manager of Tonghua Liquor Industry, the general manager of Jinliufu Heilongjiang Company was transferred to the marketing director of Tonghua Liquor Industry, and the former audit executive vice president of Xinhualian Group was transferred to the financial director of Tonghua Liquor Industry. So far, Xinhualian has sent 1 1 executives. The essential significance of sending people is not only the overall replacement of the top management of Tonghua wine industry, but also the marketing concept accumulated by Jinliufu into the past.
Channel construction. The success of Jinliufu lies in the channel, which Xinhualian is best at. Xinhualian plans to rebuild new sales channels on the basis of the original sales channels of Tonghua Liquor Industry and maintain at least 50% of the original network. The new sales channel in tonghua wine will establish the concept of big region, and the sales volume will exceed 65,438+0,000 tons. Managing the market in a large area and independently achieving the sales target will make the spontaneous and decentralized sales in the past a thing of the past. The perfect sales network is expected to have 500 dealers.
Brand remodeling. Tonghua Liquor Co., Ltd., founded in 1937, has a long brewing history, second only to Changyu wine, and is a state banquet red wine in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China. In recent years, due to the erosion of counterfeit products, especially the national regulations prohibiting the sale of semi-juice wine, the sales volume of tonghua wine has been declining, and the gap with first-line wine brands such as Changyu, Great Wall and Dynasty is widening. If Tonghua liquor industry wants to succeed, it must reshape its brand and make it return to the ranks of first-line brands. The breakthrough of Xinhualian's choice is ice wine. Tonghua's geographical location and natural environment are similar to those of Canada. After the company went public, part of the raised funds were invested in the research and development and production of ice wine. In 2002, China Yashizun Iced Wine was produced by combining Chinese and Western brewing technologies perfectly, taking advantage of favorable weather and favorable geographical conditions. Ice wine is brewed from grapes picked below zero, and the scarcity of raw materials and special conditions have caused special quality. There is a saying that liquid gold is overseas, and the domestic retail price is higher than that of 400 yuan. The purpose of Tonghua ice wine is to rebuild Tonghua's influence in the high-end product market. At the same time, more than 50 of Tonghua's original 63 products will be eliminated. After 20 new products are put on the market, besides iced wine, there are also high-end red wines with prices above 200 yuan, and the proportion of high-end products will exceed 50%.
Tongjiu has four wine production lines, a storage warehouse with a storage capacity of 6,000 tons, a vineyard planting base with a production capacity of 40,000 tons, a special railway line and tens of thousands of tons of raw wine, which is one of the costs of turning losses into profits.
With the arrival of new shareholders, children's wine industry has taken on a new look. Banning the sale of semi-juice wine is good for the company's mountain wine. The company's strategy is to consolidate the company's position in the traditional superior product mountain wine. Mountain wine has the largest sales volume in Northeast China, and the company focuses on maintaining its dominant position in Northeast China and then promoting it to other regions. At the same time, in line with the trend of domestic wine market focusing on dry wine, the product structure was upgraded, and middle and high-grade wines such as dry red wine and ice wine were introduced. After Xinhualian took office, the local government gave strong support in policy. The local government regards the wine industry as one of the three pillar industries and is determined to revive Tonghua brand. The crackdown on local fake and shoddy wine production enterprises has been intensified, which has promoted the recovery of liquor sales in Tonghua mountain area, which is seriously plagued by fake and shoddy. All these factors will push Tongwine out of the trough. According to the sales figures provided by the general manager of Tonghua Liquor Industry to China Entrepreneur, the sales of Tonghua Liquor Industry in June this year was 3 times higher than that of the same period last year. "Many supermarkets in tonghua wine were out of stock before the Spring Festival and have not appeared for a long time." According to the statistics of China Commercial Information Center, tonghua wine's dominant position in the Northeast market remained unchanged in the first half of 2005. Tonghua ranks first with a comprehensive market share of 14.64%, and tonghua wine ranks second in sales in North China and South China. According to Fu Jun, the boss of Xinhualian, children's wine will be the flagship of Xinhualian in the wine industry in the future, with the goal of achieving a net profit of 300 million yuan within three years.
Analysis on the investment value of Tongjiu wine
The financial position is good: after the provision in 2004, Tongjiu can go into battle lightly. The asset-liability ratio is 30%, and the interest-bearing liabilities are only 2.8 million short-term loans.
The market value is underestimated: the market value of Tonghua wine industry is only 450 million yuan, and Xinhualian spent 1. 29, 5.4 billion. 07% equity, equivalent to 5. The total market value is 300 million yuan, and the current market price is lower than its admission price 15%.
At present, low-grade sweet wine is still the mainstay, and the sales of high-grade wine need a promotion process. Therefore, it is not surprising that its interim results in 2005 were pre-reduced. The driving force of the company's performance growth will mainly come from the sales of high-end wine. The funds raised from the listing of Tongjiu are mainly invested in the 20,000-ton dry red production line project and the 1000-ton ice wine production line project. Wine is generally stored for more than three years, and the company's 30 thousand tons of medium and high-grade wine will be listed this year. It is expected that the performance will be greatly improved in the second half of the year.
If 30,000 tons of medium and high-grade wine can be sold smoothly, the income will be about 700 million yuan, and the net profit will be about 15% according to the domestic net interest rate of dry wine. According to the price-earnings ratio of 17-20 listed companies in the liquor industry, the market value should be above 1700 million. Even if the capital cost is calculated at 15% after three years, the intrinsic value will be110 billion, compared with 4. The market value is 500 million, the margin of safety is as high as 59%, and the investment value is underestimated.