Zhong, general manager of iResearch Management Consulting Center, attended the meeting and delivered a speech with the theme of "Trends and Opportunities of New Retail". He believes that new consumption is a parallel stage of upgrading and downgrading. "Parallel" means that there is a wave of upgrading, but there is still a wave of demotion demand. Upgrading means spending less money to buy better things; Downgrading means spending less money on things that can still be used-the potential driving force behind the Pinduoduo outbreak.
In addition, Zhong reminded that the rise of new retail is not surprising. The brands of offline and chain stores have strong advantages, because "this wave of return is not the return of the original road, but the return with new weapons".
Social background of new retail
First, the growth dividend of urbanization is shrinking. Urbanization has brought a lot of infrastructure and investment, population concentration and a lot of consumption opportunities. At present, 70% of the population in China has completed the process of urbanization, so the dividend is shrinking, but it also brings the explosion of the whole consumption.
Second, the gradual loss of the demographic dividend. There are 228 million people born in 1980s, 65.438+74 million people born in 1990s, and only 65.438+26 million people born in 00. What a terrible number. At present, there are nine people working and five people resting in the whole society, but in 20 years, China will become five people working and nine people resting. The general trend of new retail is unmanned and intelligent.
The Economic Background of New Retail
After 20 15, entering the new economic normal means that GDP has entered the stage of low growth, which means that the original mode of stimulating GDP by printing money, investment and supply has been difficult to achieve results, and it has entered the era of consumption-driven economic growth, that is, the era of big consumption.
Consumption upgrade and consumption downgrade
New consumption is a parallel stage of upgrading and downgrading. "Parallel" means that there is a wave of upgrading, but there is still a wave of demotion demand. Upgrading means spending less money to buy better things; Downgrading means spending less money on things that can still be used-the potential driving force behind the Pinduoduo outbreak.
The upgrade includes three aspects: the first is the category upgrade of consumption, the second is the quality upgrade, and the third is the experience upgrade. Consumption upgrading has brought four opportunities. First, the new consumption concept, that is, the pursuit of quality is greater than the pursuit of brand; The second is the replacement of major consumer groups; Third, brand reconstruction includes the rise of local brands and the disappearance of traditional fake brands. At least 60% and 70% of fake brands in China will disappear. The fourth opportunity is new retail.
Consumption downgrade also includes several aspects. The first is false consumption power. The salary in Beishangguang is very high, but the house price is also very high. A bunch of middle-class people have overdrawn their spending power on high mortgages. The second is the huge population structure, and the gap between the rich and the poor is getting bigger and bigger. With 300 million middle class in China, hundreds of millions of people will go to the other side. Third, regional development is uneven, purchasing power is different, and retail infrastructure is different. What do they need when consumption is downgraded? Things that are low in price and can still be used.
The second half of the internet
First, the Internet dividend is disappearing, and the growth rate has dropped to single digits.
Second, the cost of traffic is increasing. Internet companies represented by Ali, Tencent and JD.COM have all gone offline, so the offline of Internet companies is a core scenario of traffic grabbing.
The second half of the internet reflects the monopoly pattern, that is, the effective use time of users. The average daily APP usage time is 5 hours. At this time, Tencent accounts for 43.5%, Ali accounts for 10.4%, Baidu accounts for 9.5%, and top3 accounts for 60%.
From the perspective of the whole capital market, the existence of capital winter. Judging from the growth rate of network economy, the growth rate of network economy was very fast before, which increased by 45% from 2005 to 20 1 1 year, but the whole process slowed down in 20 17 year. This round of business changes is also a change in the Internet.
Changes brought about by technology. The application of big data, Internet of Things and artificial intelligence can bring direct effects to the sales end, and the technology has entered the stage of cost reduction and efficiency improvement. This trend urges enterprises to increase investment in technology, and this wave of technological change may accelerate.
The power of users is great. The cognition of this new retail wave is that this is a new change brought about by the rise of users.
Now a large number of brands and retailers are trying to establish their own traffic pools. Borrowing from the second half, private traffic pool became the key to win in the second half, that is, the privatization of users was put forward. The hunting era gradually disappeared and entered the farming era. Now you have to circle a piece of land, grow your own crops and catch your own prey. This is the core of entering the private flow pool. The core of this change is whether you have your own traffic pool.
There are three major cut-in ends, one is disintermediation. The appearance of Pinduoduo proves that the production cost of many categories is dozens of times worse than the final retail cost, and there are many categories. Second, the multi-dimensional reorganization of resources, box horse is the integration of warehouses and stores. The third is value orientation.
New retail emphasizes people-centered, and all technologies and intelligent means are aimed at quickly obtaining data and opening up online and offline data. In order to meet users' needs and obtain goods conveniently and quickly, the core of all new retail is to gain insight into user data, and the experience is to meet users' needs, strengthen hardware, and build an ecology. Don't be confused by technology flows.
New retail trilogy
Digitization. Data refers to the comprehensive data of all product scenarios of users, and is based on data decision. For example, in a store, all cost processes are digitized with information, so that this person is transparent to you, and all channels and all contacts must be opened.
User privatization. It turns out that consumers have two roles, one is the buyer and the other is the user. This kind of transaction is a delivery transaction. But users actually have nine roles: potential customers, followers, buyers, users, communicators, sellers, investors, designers, robbing users of their brains, and finally a moral guardian, robbing users of their emotions.
Users not only spend money to buy things, but also hope that users' mouths, social networks and channels will take away users' wallets and emotions, making users die-hard fans and brain-dead fans. This is the privatization of users. Only by establishing a privatized traffic pool can it be called a truly independent business form! Otherwise, you will live in someone else's ecosystem in the future.
Ecological. Don't use spears against other people's missiles. Many people are products, categories, scenes and lifestyles. In fact, these are all life transactions. When establishing ecology and thinking about top-level design, it must be high-dimensional thinking and a blow to dimensionality reduction.