At the end of 20 18 and the recent local "two sessions", some cities fine-tuned the content of property market regulation and put forward the "one city, one policy" scheme, which may represent the opening of the real estate "policy for the city" stage.
According to the established arrangement, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the 20 18 national real estate development and sales report on February. By then, the overall situation of the domestic property market may be more clear. Previously, most of the industry expected that real estate sales and investment would fall back, and local policies would be fine-tuned or further promoted.
Previously, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the national commercial housing sales area was1811-65448, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, which was higher than 20/.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that in September, June, June and June of 20 18, the monthly sales area of the national real estate market decreased for three consecutive months. "In the whole year of 20 18, the sales amount of commercial housing is likely to set a new record, while the transaction area is flat.
The slowdown in real estate sales has also affected the land market. According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, in 2065438+2008, the total number of residential land auctions in first-and second-tier cities reached 382, the highest in the past six years. In addition to first-and second-tier cities, the number of land flow standards in third-and fourth-tier cities is also at a high level. In 20 18, residential land in third-and fourth-tier cities 1203 cases, and 382 cases in first-and second-tier cities, making a total of residential land 1585 cases.
Looking at the performance of the domestic property market in recent years, it is closely related to policy changes. The overall real estate market continues to cool down, pushing up the industry's expectations for policy adjustment.
Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, predicted that the bottom line of the policy of "houses are for living, not for speculation" will not change, but some cities may adjust the policies of restricting purchases and sales, and relax the down payment ratio of the first home, loan recognition conditions and interest rates.
Savills, an international real estate service provider, recently released a research report on Beijing real estate market in the fourth quarter of 20 18, arguing that the probability of fine-tuning real estate-related policies is increasing under the background of increasing macroeconomic downward pressure.
Xiang Li, senior manager of Savills Research & Consulting Department, said that 20 18 continued the tone of strict regulation of real estate in 20 17, with the core idea of "living without speculation", and more than 400 regulation policies and rules were issued throughout the country throughout the year, which can be described as the "regulation year", covering multiple dimensions such as purchase restriction, loan, shed reform, provident fund and affordable housing. At the end of 20 18, some cities made fine adjustments to some regulatory contents, which may represent the opening of the stage of "governing the city by the city".
The national conference on housing and urban-rural construction held last month demanded that the goal of stabilizing land prices in 20 19 years is to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, strive to establish and improve a long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and resolutely prevent and resolve risks in the real estate market. Adhere to the city's policy and classified guidance, consolidate the city's main responsibility, strengthen market monitoring and evaluation, and earnestly implement the responsibility of stabilizing land prices and housing prices.
"The central government formulates principles, and local governments formulate detailed rules." Li Xiang believes that the central-level regulatory core framework such as establishing a long-term mechanism for real estate regulation, "no real estate speculation" and "simultaneous rental and sales" will not waver, but it will also appropriately delegate power to local governments, emphasizing "governing the city by the city, guiding by classification, and consolidating the main responsibility of urban governments".
Since the end of 20 18, many cities in China have fine-tuned the property market policy.
On 20 18 12 18, Heze, Shandong Province announced the cancellation of the housing sales restriction policy. Since then, Guangzhou has adjusted the "commercial housing" policy, and some houses that could only be sold to enterprises can also be sold to individuals. Qingdao High-tech Zone has suspended the lottery to sell houses, and the lottery regulations have only been implemented for half a year.
Zhang Dawei believes that the policy adjustments in Guangzhou and Heze indicate that the real estate regulation and control policies may be fine-tuned. The increase in the real estate market has dropped significantly, and the real estate control policies of some cities have also reached the adjustment stage. It is unlikely that there will be substantial easing in the future, but various fine-tuning will probably occur frequently.
Recently, the signals revealed by the local two conferences show that "one city, one policy" is expected to become the main direction of local governance in 20 19.
65438+ 10/7, the second session of the 13th National People's Congress of Henan Province held a press conference. Zhang Da, deputy director of the Housing and Construction Department of Henan Province, said that in 20 19, Henan Province will continue to implement the main responsibility system for regulating the city government in the real estate market, adhere to local conditions, implement comprehensive policies, and implement "one city, one policy". Strengthen the two-way regulation of market supply and demand, resolutely curb speculative real estate speculation, strengthen policy linkage and overall coordination among cities, and implement the responsibility of stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations.
According to reports, in 20 18, Henan province adopted measures such as restricting purchases, loans, prices and sales. Due to the city's policy and local conditions, the trend of excessive increase in the sales area and price of commercial housing in the province was generally controlled, and the real estate market was generally stable. From 20 18 to 18+0 10, the investment in real estate development in Henan Province was 622.6 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year. The inventory cycle of commercial housing is 9 months, which is basically in a reasonable range, and the contradiction between supply and demand has been effectively alleviated.
Recently, Tang, Governor of Fujian Province, made a government work report to the Second Session of the 13th National People's Congress of Fujian Province. According to the report, it is necessary to improve the long-term mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, consolidate the main responsibility of the city, and formulate and implement housing development plans. Fuzhou and Xiamen should formulate the implementation plan of "one city, one policy" to effectively stabilize land prices, housing prices and expectations.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Zhejiang will speed up the establishment of a long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and Hangzhou and Ningbo will study and formulate a "one city, one policy" plan this year.
Xiang Yongdan, director of the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department of Zhejiang Province, said on June 5438+08 that in accordance with the requirements of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations", Zhejiang Province will earnestly implement the main responsibility of the city government, scientifically formulate and strictly implement long-term mechanisms and policies and measures. 20 19 Hangzhou and Ningbo will study and formulate the "one city, one policy" plan, and other cities will also do a good job in formulating the plan.
Zhang Dawei believes that in 20 19, the real estate regulation and control gradually showed the coexistence of relaxation and tightening. The signals transmitted by the local two conferences show that the demand for stabilizing the real estate market has become the mainstream of local policies in 20 19.
"Local-led regulation, under the trend of stable or even downward real estate market, the most severe period of real estate policy has passed, and fine-tuning policies in many cities will appear intensively in the future." Zhang Dawei said.
However, he also believes that from the past regulatory history, the core of regulatory policies is still the credit policy. Whether the multi-suite credit policy is tightened determines the strength of the property market regulation policy. As long as the credit policy does not change significantly, other policy adjustments have limited impact on the overall property market.