"Do you want to wait until the house price falls?"
Tu Hua, who works in Nanchang, Jiangxi, has been a little annoyed recently. At the end of last month, he just signed a house purchase contract and paid a down payment. The next day, the the State Council executive meeting introduced eight measures to regulate the real estate market. "The strongest in history", "unprecedented" and "carry out the rectification to the end" ... In the face of the overwhelming interpretation of the National Eight Articles and sensational headlines in the media, whether to continue to buy a house made Tu Hua quite shaken.
"This regulation is really strong, and house prices may fall. If the house price really falls after the Spring Festival, then I am really losing money in buying a house now. " The day before the policy was introduced, Tu Hua was very upset about buying a house. Based on the strong expectation of the market decline, he even decided to get back the deposit and return the new house he bought at a high price.
With the introduction of "National Eight Articles", property tax pilot and other measures, as well as the arrival of the traditional off-season of Spring Festival sales, the current real estate market began to show obvious changes. According to the latest survey, the transaction volume of domestic first-tier real estate cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen all dropped significantly in the first week of February. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, not only did the property market transactions in some cities in the Pearl River Delta decline significantly, but some cities even experienced a single-digit decline in transaction volume within a week.
According to industry insiders, the national eight-article policy is still at the central level. With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the detailed rules for ministries and local governments to implement Article 8 will continue to be promulgated, which will undoubtedly have a significant impact on market expectations. In a short period of time, the wait-and-see atmosphere of the market will reappear, the volume and amount of transactions will drop significantly, and the corresponding house prices will be loosened. Since September last year, the situation of the property market rising in volume and price will turn for the better.
"If you don't buy a house, what will you take to inflate?"
Unlike Tu Hua, Wang Ming, who runs an electrical equipment company in Beijing, still decides to buy a new commercial house in the near future. "Judging from the price increase last year, buying a house now is still an effective way to preserve currency." Wang Ming told reporters that inflation expectations are growing. Compared with other investments, buying a house is still the safest and most reassuring investment method for him. Even if the house price falls, he won't lose much.
Rainbow Ming, for many people in China, the function of commercial housing is not only to protect residence, but also to protect wealth to a great extent. Although 20 10 has continuously introduced real estate control measures, the policy orientation is to curb investment and speculation in the real estate market; Although people from the decision-making level to the public opinion are guiding people to return to the essence of housing, with the flood of liquidity and rising prices during the year, people's expectations for inflation are gradually strengthened. Ensuring that your wallet does not shrink has become a problem that many ordinary people want to solve most.
At the same time, 20 10 China's capital market is mediocre, and ordinary people's financial management and investment channels are very limited. In this case, although the state's policy of restraining real estate investment and speculation has become a normal state, it still cannot change people's traditional psychology of "buying houses to preserve their value" in a short time. A questionnaire survey conducted by the central bank at the end of last year showed that buying a house is still the first choice for residents to invest.
"Will the retaliatory rebound come again?"
For the first time, the pertinence of housing price regulation was mentioned, the down payment ratio of the second home loan was increased again, and the scope and intensity of the purchase restriction were further expanded ... The regulation of the real estate market by Article 8 of the State has reached an unprecedented height, and at the same time, with the start of the real estate tax pilot in Chongqing and Shanghai, the trend of real estate regulation to a deeper level has become very obvious. However, even under such strong and high-intensity control measures, there are still people who worry that the future real estate market will still triumph.
In the interview, many buyers still think that the price of 20 1 1 will continue to rise. In their view, there were not many control measures at the end of 2009 and the whole year of 20 10, and the control intensity was not too great, but even under such circumstances, house prices will continue to rise in the second half of 20 10. An ordinary property buyer in Beijing told reporters that if you don't buy it now, the house price will not come down this year, and it will be more expensive to buy it later.
It is not unreasonable to worry about the "retaliatory rebound" of the property market. According to past experience, after the introduction of control measures, after a short period of market wait and see, there will often be a phenomenon of concentrated release of accumulated demand, which will lead to a sudden recovery of the property market.
Therefore, for this regulation, many people in the industry reminded that it is necessary not only to subtract from the policy, restrict investment and speculative housing purchase, but also to add to the demand and increase the supply of ordinary commercial housing and affordable housing. At the same time, strengthen the supervision of the market to ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, rather than hot and cold.
Cao Jianhai, a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, said recently that after the first and second quarters of 20 1 1, house prices rose to the top and showed an inflection point, and a downward trend was established at the end of the year.