Compared with the first edition, the Detailed Rules adjusted the objects and conditions of public transfer of commercial housing to the society, and also extended the period of public transfer of commercial housing to the society, up to 30 years.
0 1 Business is corporate, and the process is too complicated.
Converting business to public means turning commercial loans into housing provident fund loans. Similarly, the purpose of the public transfer business is also very clear, that is, to reduce the interest of property buyers when repaying loans.
The latest published LPR interest rate is 4.65%, which is still far from the fixed interest rate of provident fund of 3.25% (including the interest added by banks).
For property buyers, it is a good policy to transfer business to public, but it is not very practical.
First of all, the coverage area is too small, and there are not many cities that explicitly support the transfer of public services. Only a few cities such as Shenzhen, Chongqing, Shijiazhuang and Fuzhou are allowed to transfer business to the public. In addition, some cities canceled the public transfer business in the later period, such as Xinxiang City, Henan Province, and directly cut across the board.
As far as the conditions for the applicant to turn public are concerned, as long as the property buyers have paid the housing provident fund and paid the bank loan for a period of time, they can apply to the original commercial loan bank for turning public. Does it look simple in theory? But if you really want to implement it, you will find that it is not as simple as you think.
There is an upper limit on the amount of provident fund loans, which cannot be exceeded for the revolutionary business. On this basis, in order to handle the business transfer, you have to "pay back the loan first", pay off the business loan at one time with the funds in your hand, and then apply for a provident fund loan; Otherwise, you have to "pay for the loan with the loan", apply for a loan from the provident fund center, then use the provident fund loan to pay for the commercial loan, and then repay the provident fund loan every month.
It is worth noting that the latter needs to pay off the principal and interest difference between commercial loans and provident fund loans in advance.
The whole process goes on, the provident fund center and the bank run at both ends, with evaluation and guarantee in the middle. Mainly depends on personal feelings.
Moreover, it depends on the time for business transfer. Generally, it is better to handle it in the first half of the year, because the balance of the provident fund account is relatively abundant during this period, and it is faster to handle it.
Nanchang Housing Provident Fund Management Center once suspended accepting loan applications from business owners for public use because of financial constraints. If you want to handle it, please wait slowly first.
In the process of transferring business to public, the various conditions attached by banks and the shortage of provident fund loans make the practicality of transferring business to public far lower than that of the combined loan model.
As for those friends who are worried that the Chamber of Commerce will provide "low-interest loans" to the housing market, which will lead to rising housing prices, they can take back their hearts.
The "detailed rules" collected by Wuhan from the society are loose, which increases the repayment period of commercial loans from "6 months and above" to "12 months and above", raising the threshold for handling commercial loans. Commercial loans in portfolio loans shall not be converted.
Generally speaking, the contents of the Detailed Rules are satisfactory, mainly to protect people's livelihood, reduce residents' mortgages and extend the repayment cycle to avoid a hard landing of the property market.
Affected by the epidemic this year, the economy of most people has been affected. In the future, it will not be ruled out that other cities will copy the operation of Wuhan businessmen turning to the public and cut interest rates in disguise.
Stock room, small cities are too difficult.
It is worth noting that in the collection of opinions on the "Detailed Rules", the stock houses are also carried out one by one. The longest period for stock house dealers to turn public is extended from 20 years to 30 years.
Wuhan Housing Provident Fund Center said that the extension of the loan period for stock developers is mainly to respond to the loan demand of employees who buy second-hand houses, which is consistent with the current housing age of second-hand housing provident fund loans.
The property market is hot, and it is not a day or two for developers to cast nets everywhere to build houses.
Compared with the relationship between supply and demand in first-tier cities, the housing supply in most second-and third-tier cities in China obviously exceeds demand. According to public data, in 20 17, the vacancy rates of second-tier cities and third-tier cities were 22.2% and 2 1.8% respectively, which was much higher than that of first-tier cities 16.8%, which was a serious housing inventory backlog.
Many small partners are not very clear about the relationship between "stock houses" and "second-hand houses". The stock room belongs to the second-hand house, but the stock room is for sale and no one has lived in it; A second-hand house is a house that has been transferred and lived in. In terms of market division, the stock houses belong to the 1.5 level market, and the second-hand housing transactions belong to the 3 level market.
For the stock houses in China, in 20 15, Qin Hong, then director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that real estate was entering the era of stock houses. "From the perspective of the whole market, new housing business accounts for 70%, and second-hand housing accounts for 30%. The proportion of such data should be reversed in the future. "
Taking Beijing as an example, Chen Zhi 20 15, Secretary-General of Beijing Real Estate Association, once analyzed the housing stock in Beijing. "Beijing has more than 600 million square meters of stock houses, which means that according to the calculation of single set 100 square meter, there are about 6 million sets of stock houses. Based on the urban population of Beijing180,000, and the average household is 3 people, the urban population basically reaches the level of one suite per household. "
When he said this, he was already full of people. After all, behind the panic buying and grabbing houses in Beijing property market, there is a theoretical support of "insufficient inventory in Beijing property market".
The stock room can reach a set of households. As for robbing the house?
Rob, or rob.
At the end of 20 16, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing reached a historical record, accounting for 85% of the whole market, which also means that Beijing has fully entered the era of stock houses.
In first-tier cities, the phenomenon of stock houses is particularly obvious. With the gradual decline in the supply of new houses, people's choice space is relatively narrow, and there is even a phenomenon of "sky-high tea consumption" in Shenzhen. The reason is that there are too few new dishes. In this regard, many media claimed that China has entered the era of stock houses.
20 18 China International Capital Corporation released the research report "Inventory of Housing Stock in China". It is estimated that by the end of 20 17, the national housing stock will reach 274 million sets, corresponding to a stock area of 2610,000,000 square meters, and every household owns 1. 13 sets.
The report results seem to further support this view: the era of stock houses has arrived. But as far as the transaction volume of second-hand houses in most second-and third-tier cities is concerned, it is far from this standard, especially in the central and western regions.
Judging from the choice of buying houses in second-and third-tier cities, the "new house fever" is still a high fever.
03 conclusion
On the one hand, there is a huge stock room, and on the other hand, there is a high number of second-hand houses. The property market in 2020 may be more difficult than expected.
According to public data, by the end of May, the number of second-hand houses listed in Hangzhou had reached 6.5438+0.2 million, that in Chongqing had exceeded 6.5438+0.4 million, that in Chengdu had exceeded 6.5438+0.4 million and that in Shenzhen had reached 6.5438+0.5 million. In direct proportion to the listing of second-hand houses, there is also an increase in house prices.
In terms of market supply, in May 2020, the newly listed houses in China increased by 18.9%, among which those in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou increased by 208.65, 438+0%, 65.4%, 4 1.4% and19.9. Second-hand housing prices rise space is also obvious. The increase of second-hand housing prices in four first-tier cities generally exceeds the new housing market, with Beijing leading the country with a month-on-month increase of 1.8%.
However, the market is not as optimistic as expected. There is a hot scene of queuing to buy a house in the new house market in Shenzhen and Hangzhou. Behind it is the price limit of new houses and the price inversion of the second-hand housing market, which has a huge arbitrage space. The second-hand housing market is generally depressed, with obvious contrast.
The transaction volume of second-hand houses can't keep up with the listing volume, which also means the extension of the decontamination cycle.
At this key node, Wuhan is really like a signal, shaking the banner of "changing business to public". After all, the economy should turn and the real estate market should move. The latest LPR interest rate also clearly tells the public that the central bank is braking.
Perhaps, it is time to move the long-standing provident fund!