Regarding the future trend of the smart phone market, a report in The Wall Street Journal quoted Konas consulting analysts as saying that smart phone suppliers must be "prepared to quickly respond to emerging opportunities and risks while focusing on long-term development strategies".
While the smart phone market is weakening, with the continuous development of technologies such as 5G and artificial intelligence, driven by global applications and experiential consumption, the smart wearable device industry has developed rapidly and become the fastest-growing high-tech field in the world. According to statistics, the global shipment of smart wearable devices increased from 29 million units in 20 14 to 534 million units in 200214, and it is expected to reach 637 million units in 2024. Will the smart wearable device market become a latecomer to the smart phone market?
The smartphone market is saturated.
1999, Motorola launched a mobile phone named Tiantuo A6 188, which is the world's first touch-screen mobile phone and the world's first smart phone, and the originator of the rapidly developing smart phone. This phone uses 16MHz CPU, supports WAP 1. 1 wireless Internet access, and uses PPSM (Personal Portable System Manager).
Since then, Ericsson, Nokia, Sharp and other manufacturers have made efforts, but subject to objective conditions such as technology and market environment, the smartphone market has always been in a tepid state. This state continued until 2007.
This year, smartphones have been redefined in Apple products of Apple founder Steve Jobs. With the release of iPhone, the whole mobile phone market has been completely subverted by all kinds of unprecedented innovations it has brought. It not only set off a wave of touch screens, but also indicates that mobile phones have officially entered the intelligent era.
Today, the large icon interface design pioneered by iPhone, gravity sensing to change the screen direction and various integrated iPod multimedia applications can still be found on many Android phones.
As a result, the global smartphone market has entered a stage of rapid development.
By 20 16, global smartphone shipments will hit a record high, with annual shipments reaching147 billion units. However, in 20 19, global smartphone shipments dropped to13.7 billion units. Global smartphone sales reached a peak of $483.3 billion in 20 18, and fell back to $458.2 billion in 20 19.
In 2020, due to the COVID-19 epidemic and market factors, the global smartphone industry's shipment performance became less optimistic, and there was a more obvious decline. According to the report released by International Data Corporation (IDC), the global smartphone shipments in 2020 were 654.38+0.29 billion units, down 5.9% year-on-year. In 20021year, the report released by konas company showed that the total global smartphone shipments were 654.38+0.35 billion units, up 7% year-on-year, but it still did not reach the level of 20 19.
Who is the next tipping point for smart terminals?
Today, there are so many application scenarios of a smart phone that I am afraid even Jobs himself will be surprised-on this small screen, many functions such as banking, social interaction, navigation and games can be integrated.
Nevertheless, CNN believes that there is increasing evidence that the era of smart phones is coming to an end.
In fact, due to the slow progress of related technologies, the frequency of people changing their mobile phones has also decreased, which has led to a slow decline in global mobile phone sales since 20 16. Therefore, both technical researchers and investors are looking for the tipping point of the next market.
The smart wearable device market is a tipping point for their high hopes.
Since 2020, with the accumulation of market factors and the influence of COVID-19 epidemic, VR (Virtual Reality) headset has developed rapidly, and AR (Augmented Reality) has a very broad application prospect. Now, most large American technology companies, including Apple, Google, Metauniverse and Microsoft, are developing or selling VR or AR headsets. Although the smart wearable device market is still a niche market (referring to the market space occupied by a few customers with similar interests or needs in a larger market segment), it will become very lively next.
Nowadays, there are more and more types of smart wearable devices, such as smart watches, smart bracelets, smart glasses, ear hanging products and so on. In addition to more types, smart wearable devices have more and more functions. In addition to regular viewing time, telephone and electronic payment, they also add more functions such as health monitoring and travel management. The continuous innovation of these functions and applications has opened up new consumer markets.
Can it replace smart phones?
In the face of the smart wearable device market with broad development prospects, the British "Economist" magazine believes that it is still necessary to keep a clear head, especially the headset that has been in the limelight in the past two years: any claim that the next large-scale technology platform has been discovered should be treated with caution.
According to an article in The Economist magazine, this is because there have been many examples of more thunder and less rain. For example, the tablet once claimed to be an opponent of smart phones, but the sales volume of Apple iPhone is still six times that of iPad. The smart home market, which was once considered to have unlimited development prospects, has developed to this day. Amazon's Alexa assistant is at best a jukebox with timer function. Although in-vehicle technology has been proved to have practical value and investment potential, it is still far from the vision of becoming the core of digital life. Therefore, it is not difficult to imagine that the headset, which is mainly used in the game field at present, may also fall into a similar dilemma.
However, since the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, VR and AR industries have also entered a stage of rapid growth. In 2020, the global virtual reality market will be about $654.38+03.7 billion, including $9.4 billion in VR market and $4.2 billion in AR market. Some analysts believe that during the five years from 2020 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the global virtual reality industry is about 54%, of which the growth rate of VR is about 45% and the growth rate of AR is about 66%. In 2024, their market share is expected to reach $36.5 billion.
In addition to VR and AR, consumers have gradually turned their attention to a number of new smart wearable devices, such as voice-activated smart headphones that support functions such as making phone calls and reading short messages, and smart watches that integrate memo reminders, navigation and fitness functions. At the same time, some healthy smart wearable devices are constantly emerging, from blood sugar monitoring to sleep monitoring. In the United States, the sales of smart wearable devices are close to those of smart phones.
However, these gadgets are more like accessories for mobile phones than substitutes. However, with the transfer of computer applications from pockets to people's wrists and ears, more and more consumers' attention and consumption direction will gradually shift from mobile phones. As VR and AR devices become lighter and cheaper, they may become the most powerful products in the smart wearable device family.
However, people will not abandon their smartphones in a short time, just as people would not abandon their laptops 10 years ago. However, as they use headphones more and more frequently, or VR and AR devices more and more frequently, more and more people will only use mobile phones as auxiliary devices to provide computing support for other devices. (Compile annual double crossing)
interconnection
According to a recent report released by Counterpoint, a well-known market research and analysis institution, the overall revenue of global smartphone manufacturers reached $448 billion in 20021year. Among them, Apple ranks first in the world, and the annual revenue of the mobile phone department reaches 654.38+96 million US dollars. Samsung ranked second with $72 billion in mobile phone revenue, followed by China brand OPPO with $37 billion, Xiaomi with $36 billion and Vivo with $34 billion.
According to the data released by International Data Corporation (IDC), the global shipment of smart wearable devices reached 533.6 million units in 20021year, up 20% year-on-year. By 2025, the global shipment of smart wearable devices is expected to reach 800 million units, with a five-year compound growth rate of 12%.