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Textual research on the "back wave" of real estate from five dimensions
There are many factors that determine house prices. Demographic change is indeed one of the most important factors in determining housing prices, because houses are mainly used for living. The aging population and declining birthrate will reduce the demand for real estate, and the decrease of floating population will slow down the process of urbanization, thus slowing down the growth of urban real estate demand.
I have mentioned many times before that to judge the level of urbanization in China, we should not only look at the gap between the urbanization rate of China and the developed economies, but also consider the level of population aging. The older you get, the less willing you are to move. One of the characteristics of China's economy is getting old before getting rich. So I am not very optimistic about the development space of urbanization. For example, from 20 1 1, the urbanization speed slowed down obviously. In the past, the urbanization rate increased by 1.4 percentage points every year, and decreased to 1.06 percentage points in 20 18- 19.
From the perspective of economic cycle, China's GDP growth rate began to decline after rebounding to a high point in 20 10, and has continued to decline 10, which is obviously in a downward cycle. The decline in the growth rate of real estate development investment is also synchronized with the GDP growth rate, and continues to fall after 20 10 reaches a high of 33%. However, after 20 15 fell to a level close to zero, 20 16 began to rebound, but the magnitude was not great. This year is estimated to be negative growth. By the end of March this year, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 710.8 billion square meters, and the general inventory of real estate continued to rise.
Then, why is the growth rate of development investment declining and house prices still firm? Because there are many factors that affect housing prices, in addition to the five dimensions I mentioned, there are also factors such as consumption upgrading and land investment preference. In addition, there is a time lag effect. For example, the growth rate of real estate development investment in the United States peaked in 2000, but house prices began to fall in 2006.
An important reason why many people are optimistic about real estate is the excessive currency, but in fact, the M2 growth rate in China continued to slow down after reaching a high of 26% in 2009. Despite the decline, the growth rate is not low, and it is higher than the income growth rate of residents. Of course, the income of residents is also divided. For example, according to the statistical bulletin of the National Bureau of Statistics, from 20 16 to 20 19, the per capita disposable income of high-income groups increased by 29%, while the cumulative growth of middle-income groups was only 19%, and the gap between absolute income and relative income was widening.
However, middle-income groups should be the main body of just-needed and improved demand, and the income growth rate of middle-income families continues to decline, which is not only lower than the growth rate of M2, but also lower than the growth rate of GDP, which is not good for the demand side of real estate. For example, from the perspective of the scale of new mortgage loans, after reaching a high point in 20 16 years, it has not exceeded the level of 20 16 years in the past three years, and it is estimated that it will be lower this year.
Of course, the income growth rate of high-income groups has increased significantly since 20 16, which is also an important factor supporting the firm price of high-end real estate. Moreover, according to our estimation, the official income of high-income groups is underestimated to some extent. Therefore, it will be biased to use the ratio of house price to income to measure the valuation of house price, but it is more objective to use the ratio of rent to sale.
Undeniably, at present, the rental-to-sale ratio of residential buildings in major cities in China rarely exceeds 4%, and most of them are between 1-2%. If other expenses such as depreciation are deducted, the rental return rate is lower. From the perspective of investment, the rental-to-sale ratio of houses in big cities is close to 1%, and the rental return rate is so low, how can we say the investment value? From the consumption point of view, young people's monthly rental expenditure accounts for nearly 50% of the total consumption expenditure, which is unbearable. This distorted phenomenon of serious mismatch between high housing prices and residents' income has brought many disadvantages to future economic development.
But it is undeniable that domestic residents' preference for real estate is better than that of most other countries and nationalities. Is this related to the fact that the ancestors of the Chinese nation were agricultural nations? For example, the latest survey report of the central bank shows that the proportion of housing assets to the total assets of families with 1 set of housing is 64.3%, that of families with two sets of housing is 62.7%, and that of families with three or more sets of housing is 5 1.0%. However, the proportion of financial assets of urban households in total assets in China is low, which is 22.6438+0 percentage points lower than that in the United States.
In addition, the housing market has experienced a rise of 20 years, which is rare in the world, which is closely related to the dependence of China's economic model on "land finance". First of all, real estate development contributes directly and indirectly, accounting for more than 20% of GDP, and contributes greatly to local fiscal revenue. Therefore, it has become a national policy to prevent housing prices from skyrocketing and plunging, and local governments also hope to obtain more income by increasing the value of land.
Under the major policy of keeping houses, not speculating, not flooding, and preventing house prices from rising and falling, the policy orientation of keeping house prices stable in the future should not change. As an important pillar of China's economic growth and the main asset allocation of residents' families, the real estate market can't accept big turbulence.
But this does not change the downward trend of the real estate cycle, that is, the so-called "last wave" will not be higher than the previous wave, but "each wave is lower than the next". This is not only because of the phenomenon of fewer children, but also because of the inheritance of family property, because houses are not disposable consumer goods and do not need to be updated like cars. Belongs to real estate. After the death of the old man, the house will be passed on to the next generation, and the "back wave" will be countered by the "front wave", making the supply exceed the demand.
Compared with controlling more real estate market, A-share market can better reflect investors' expectations. Judging from the valuation level of the real estate sector in the A-share market, its average P/E ratio has dropped from more than 90 times at the peak in 2007 to 6.9 times at present (the real estate of the top 50 real estate enterprises accounts for a higher proportion of the main business income), which is 2.2% of the historical PE, indicating that investors are less and less allocated to the real estate sector.
The allocation of the banking sector has also fallen sharply. The current average P/E ratio is only 6.5 times, which is 60 times that of the peak in 2007. Banks and real estate are inseparable, and the sharp decline in the valuation of these two sectors still reflects investors' cautious expectations of China's economic growth and real estate prospects. In contrast, the valuation levels of pharmaceutical biology, communication, electronics and computer sectors are at historical highs, reflecting investors' optimistic expectations for emerging industries.
As an essential consumer product, the food and beverage industry belongs to the traditional industry, but the valuation level is still rising. Therefore, when China's economy enters the stock-dominated stage, the aging population is accompanied by the upgrading of consumption, and the demand for medical care, education, leisure and entertainment is rising, which is more and more synchronized with the differentiated characteristics of industrial development in developed economies.
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Risks and opportunities coexist.
When the real estate bull market lasts for such a long time, more and more people form a "belief" in real estate, that is, they believe that house prices will only rise and not fall, and then list the reasons for the rise: inflation, money flooding, improved demand and so on. But why does the stock market keep falling?
1996 I was in Shenzhen, and I wanted to buy a house at that time, but many people told me never to buy a house. Why? Because the trend of housing prices in Shenzhen is the same as that in Hong Kong, after buying a new house, they all go high and low, so they will be trapped after buying it. So there were very few people buying houses at that time, and everyone would rather rent a house than buy a house.
Therefore, logically speaking, there is no asset that only rises but does not fall, and there is no asset that only falls and does not rise. As long as history is lengthened, all kinds of phenomena will appear. But people often interpret the future according to the routines of the past and the present, which is called "mindset" in behavior. Look at the bursting of the Japanese real estate bubble, and the land price has fallen for 26 years; Looking at the global financial crisis triggered by the falling house prices in the United States, anything is possible.
However, after 20 18, the land price in Japan began to rise again, while the real estate in the United States recovered earlier. Therefore, with the ups and downs of the real estate industry, opportunities always exist. For China, in recent years, the economic growth rate is still among the best in the world, but the differentiation of economic structure is accelerating. The changes of population flow, capital flow and information flow and industrial agglomeration will have a significant impact on housing prices in different regions or even in different regions of the same region.
For example, the eastern part of China, with an area of only 20% of the national territory, has created 54% of the national GDP. Therefore, economies of scale are characterized by agglomeration. In the future, urban concentration will be further enhanced. According to the case study of the World Bank, if the economic density is doubled, the productivity will increase by 6%, while if the distance from the central city is doubled, the profit will decrease by 6%. Now China's economic growth rate has dropped by 10 years, and extensive management is unsustainable. It is necessary to reduce costs through agglomeration and industrial support. Therefore, it is the general trend to gather all kinds of production factors to seek the optimal allocation, and guiding the population flow is in line with this trend.
According to the data of 20 19, the net outflow population in Shandong province is 200,000; Hebei has zero growth, Tianjin and Beijing are also net outflows, and Liaoning's population continues to grow negatively. Can Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas continue to be optimistic? I think Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is different from the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. The former shows that Beijing is exerting siphon effect, which leads to the "gap around Beijing", while the latter shows radiation effect, coordinated development and formation of urban agglomerations.
Even so, in the "integrated" areas, there is also differentiation. For example, in the 20 19 Yangtze River Delta region, the net inflow of Zhejiang population was 850,000, that of Jiangsu was only 25,000 and that of Anhui was 45,000. Among the major cities in the Pearl River Delta, only Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhuhai and Dongguan have a large net inflow of population, while most other cities have a net outflow of population. Moreover, the net inflow of Shenzhen was surpassed by Hangzhou for the first time.
From the perspective of population movement, we should be more optimistic about the "line" than the "surface", that is, we should be more optimistic about the three lines: Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay Area, Hangzhou Bay Area and Yangtze River Economic Belt, because the population is concentrated in the core cities on these three lines, rather than scattered on a larger "surface".
Among Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Beijing ranks second, while Tianjin, as the third largest municipality directly under the Central Government, ranks only at 13. Of course, Beijing is a gathering center of population, capital and information, and it is definitely a key investment city worthy of attention. Chengdu in the western region ranks sixth, Chongqing ranks 12, and Xi arranges the name 14. Therefore, the real estate investment opportunities of these "spots" are also worthy of attention.
In the future, the population will concentrate in cities with developed "new economy". Last year, Zhejiang's net inflow population surpassed Guangdong's, and Hangzhou's population inflow scale surpassed Shenzhen's. This is a very convincing case, because Hangzhou's information industry is more developed, and capital cities in the central and western regions, such as Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi 'an and other cities with concentrated university resources, are also highly competitive in developing the new economy and will absorb more population inflows.
Take the United States as an example Since March last year, Atlanta's housing prices have risen first in the United States and become a hot technology harbor. Diversified population composition and innovation-driven ecosystem have attracted many high-tech enterprises and talents to flood into cities. The west coast of the United States around Silicon Valley, where high-tech and information industries are located, is also in the forefront of major cities in the United States. For example, the housing price in San Francisco is higher than that in New York, and new york is the highest in the United States. In addition, the third to fifth places are San Diego, Los Angeles and Seattle, all of which surpass the traditional eastern financial developed Boston.
/kloc-From the end of 0/9 to the beginning of the 20th century, freight mainly depended on rivers. The midwest and northeast of the United States (Michigan, Ohio and other States) became the center of heavy industry and the "factory of the world" at that time because of convenient transportation and rich mineral resources, and prosperous areas such as Detroit, Pittsburgh, the "capital of steel" and Dayton, a major industrial town in the northeast, emerged. However, since 1970s and 1980s, with the transformation and upgrading of American economy and the rise of new technology industries, factories in these places have been abandoned on a large scale and degenerated into "rust zone".
For China, the reason behind the continuous outflow of population from Northeast China is that the prosperous period of heavy industry in China has passed. It seems unnecessary for us to reflect excessively on the decline of Northeast China, because under the stock economy, trade-offs are iron laws. Perhaps it is precisely because of the decline of the Northeast that the manufacturing industry in the Pearl River Delta emerged. Generally speaking, the population flow in China has changed from west to east to north to south. The development opportunities in southeast, central south and southwest are greater than those in northeast, north and northwest.
The evolution of history is accompanied by the development and progress of science and technology. Before the industrial revolution, the convenience of water transportation determined the development prospect of the city. The invention of the steam engine and the completion of the railway led to the emergence of big cities in areas with developed mineral resources; Nowadays, science and technology, finance and information flow are increasingly affecting the fate of cities, the concentration of population is getting higher and higher, and the imbalance and gap of regional development are pulling. Real estate investment must also follow this logic.
Judging from the characteristics of China's urbanization process, the overall urbanization has entered the later stage, while the big urbanization is in the ascendant, especially in the big cities that keep pace with the times. For example, although the ratio of house price to income in Shenzhen has been the highest in China for a long time, it has dropped slightly from 36 times in 2009 to 35 times in 20 19, but the ratio of house price to income in China has increased from 20 10/2.5 to 13.3 times.
This shows that although the "P/E ratio" of real estate in Shenzhen was very high ten years ago, the P/E ratio did not go up again, but the house price still rose by more than ten times, which shows that the economic development speed of Shenzhen is beyond imagination. Buying a house and buying stocks are actually the same thing, that is, expensive. Many A-share stocks with high P/E ratio have higher gains, while those with low P/E ratio will get lower and lower. The core logic lies in the expectation of "future prospects".
Why can housing prices rise in cities with high new economic components or cities that keep pace with the times? Because house prices are related to the income level of residents, the average income level of employees in information technology and high-tech industries is relatively high, while the income level of employees in most traditional industries is relatively low due to overcapacity. For example, the newly announced unemployment rate in the United States in April was 14.7%, while the hourly wage of employees increased by 7.9% in April? This is because most of the unemployed are hotels, wholesale and retail industries and construction industries, and their wages are low.
There have been similar cases in China recently. For example, the data shows that the volume and price of the land market in China rose in April, and the average land transaction price in 300 cities hit a new high in 20 18 years; The land transaction construction area and land transfer income of 40 typical cities increased by more than 100% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of more than 20%; The average transaction premium rate in cities such as Ningbo, Nanning, Xiamen, Kunming, Fuzhou, Foshan, Xuzhou and Shaoxing exceeded 30%.
Logically speaking, the surge in trading volume is due to the light trading in the first quarter, which is a retaliatory rebound; The average transaction price has reached a new high, not necessarily because the land has become a new king, but because the third-and fourth-tier cities and poor lots are not easy to sell, but the "first" land is easy to sell. Just like the decline in liquor sales and the increase in brand liquor sales, it is a truth. The epidemic is accelerating, the poor are getting poorer and the rich are getting richer. Just need to buy a house less, improve the demand to buy a house more, which is the same as Maotai and Wuliangye hit record highs, that is, high-income groups prefer to consume high-end brand goods, while low-and middle-income groups reduce the consumption of optional consumer goods.
Therefore, in the future, I am afraid to guard against the real estate investment risks in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities. According to the data of 20 19, most cities below the third tier have a net outflow of population, and many such cities may face the risk of oversupply of housing and reduced demand, because the population is flowing out, funds are flowing out and enterprises are moving out. Through this epidemic, we can easily find that many traditional industries have been hit hard, but emerging industries, high-end manufacturing industries and brand products (services) manufacturers have benefited from it.
We are experiencing such an era of differentiation, such as population differentiation, residents' income differentiation, industry differentiation and enterprise differentiation. This epidemic has accelerated differentiation and brought new risks and new opportunities.