Is the real estate market in China the same? Is there any foam? I think some cities are not big, but many hot cities have bubbles. It is different from a large number of house prices all over the country. One thing is certain, there are many bubbles in many popular cities in China, mainly from the following three aspects: First, the market value of China's real estate is equivalent to Japan+the United States+the European Union, and China's housing prices have fallen, and its market value can be comparable to that of the global real estate market. In an area of Tokyo, Japan, you can buy the whole United States. As a result, there was really nothing left after the real estate bubble burst.
In terms of global housing prices, Leistam, which is close to Lesto, is ranked in the top six by China, Hongkong, Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing. In other words, China residents will get the highest rate in the world, even though they only get one-third of the wages in developed countries. This is absolutely unreasonable. Maybe you will say that these cities have more money and great investment demand. The price will naturally fall. But the problem is that the rich don't have much cash. If they are allowed to use financial leverage, the threshold of mortgage loan will be raised, not only the price is not as good as today's price, but also there are many financial risks.
Judging from the ratio of house price to income and the ratio of rent to house price, the house price in domestic hot cities is only speculative and has no investment value. Some netizens in Xiamen are complaining that the housing prices in Xiamen are outrageous. The local people have 4000 yuan. Although the price is 40 thousand yuan/square meter, the locals can't eat it for a lifetime. House prices and income are far beyond your imagination. In addition, the annual rent of the second house in Shanghai (near the gem) is100000, and the local house should be 6-7 million. If the money can be rented out, it may cover the cost in 60 years. This shows that housing prices in hot cities are not available.
So is it the bursting real estate bubble in domestic hot cities? We believe that the bursting of the bubble is certain, but it is only "soft land" or "hard land". The house price is relatively small, and the frog with hot water is a frog. Hard ground will bring some harm, but long-term pain is better than short-term pain, which is also the result of financial leverage. Then why do you say that the real estate bubble will burst? The main manifestations are as follows: First, from the ground, house prices are rising in some places, but the growth is obviously weak. Since 20 18, house prices are not as crazy as they used to be. With the rise of housing prices, investors are becoming more and more rational. For speculators, house prices have not risen, because mortgages and various taxes have costs, and prices have not risen. If the price never rises, many speculators will choose to quit.
Due to high housing prices, both new and second-hand houses are not for sale. For developers, this business is not ideal in the first half of this year. In the second half of this year, the regulatory authorities have "three red lines" for financing. Now there is only one way for developers to "reduce prices and promote sales", otherwise the house will not be sold, the funds will not be recovered and the cash chain will be broken. In addition, the second-hand housing market is oversold by too many owners, and the price is basically too low for local residents to afford. Second-hand housing prices will not hold up sooner or later, and there will be a complete autumn.
Domestic housing prices are different, not rising in the past. We don't look like Dongguan, Hangzhou, Jinhua, Nanjing and Zhongshan are still rising, but we also want to see them. The real estate bubble in many cities has burst and achieved a hard landing. Except for Northeast China and North China, house prices in China are falling. The most prosperous thing is that Yongqing's house price was still 23 million yuan/square meter in Fangzicheng Group, and now it has fallen to 6,500 yuan/square meter, down 70%, and the price basically returned to before liberation. This also shows that the impact of domestic housing prices on the economy is not so terrible. With the return of the national monetary policy next year, all hot spots will also cool down and then turn down.
China has entered an aging society, with the population over 60 reaching 250 million, accounting for 18% of the total population. The population of young people is getting smaller and smaller, and the birth rate of newborns is plummeting. Some experts even predicted that during the five-year plan period of 14, the population of China may experience negative growth. There are fewer and fewer young people and more and more people, and the general trend of housing demand is declining. More importantly, after more than ten years of speculation, the demand of local residents has long been saturated. Without real estate, residents' wealth is in real estate, and the demand for buying houses will be weaker and weaker in the future.
Wu Xiaoling, a former deputy governor of the central bank, asked everyone to be prepared for the bubble, but this was not the case. At present, some hot spots in this country are full of bubbles, which are endless without squeezing. Judging from the current situation, the trend of house differentiation in China is serious, and it is more and more difficult to sell houses, which shows that the price bubble has begun to burst. Wu Xiaoling just wants to let those who want to go in, not accept the invitation, and reminds the financial industry that a real crisis may come.