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Policy model: from palliative to radical 6 ki "S7 a 'f.v * F5+X: A.
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At present, China's real estate market faces three major contradictions: the contradiction between social security housing and market-oriented housing, the contradiction between demand and supply, and the contradiction of excess capital liquidity. All these will be gradually solved in the process of changing the national policy from palliative to permanent cure. Cheng Yun said that in 2008, the whole real estate policy will shift from palliative to permanent cure. At the macro level, the affordable housing policy was introduced and effectively implemented in 2007; At the operational level, the tightening of financial and monetary policies includes restricting the tightening of money supply for developers to restricting the "second home loan" policy for buyers; In terms of land supply, on the one hand, increase the supply of housing land, on the other hand, severely crack down on developers' hoarding behavior. The implementation of these policies will effectively solve the three major contradictions faced by real estate, but the key and effect of regulation will also focus on the implementation of central policies in various places. . Y4 Q( N) x6 H$ a5 o
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Urban pattern: the rise of second and third tier cities "I0 c0 j$ t" i2 B*] (?
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Vanke, Gemdale and other large-scale real estate enterprises entered second-and third-tier cities, which became a highlight of the real estate market in 2007. Cheng Yun said that the national strategic planning directly affects the development direction of key cities in China. Following Shenzhen Special Economic Zone and Shanghai Pudong New Area, Tianjin Binhai New Area has been approved as a national strategic planning area, so Tianjin is expected to become a new growth pole of China's economy in the future. In addition, Chongqing, Russia and the United States, Wuhan, Changsha and so on. It has been approved as a national pilot zone for comprehensive urban and rural reform. In a word, the development momentum of second-and third-tier cities will be stronger in 2008, Cheng Yun added. $ A6 f2 m% V# ]！ p4 Q
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Industry structure: the era of capital dominance is coming+I (l5f&; H8 T5 i7？ 1 N，k
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In 2007, due to the opening of listing channels, the financing of real estate companies in the securities market was in full swing. Soho China, Huayuan and Ocean Shipping. Seek land or backdoor listing; Listed companies refinance through public offering, private placement and rights issue. Most of these financing are used in the whole country, and real estate development enterprises are caught in the strange circle of financing, enclosure, refinancing and enclosure, and this momentum will be intensified in 2008. (E% _！ n) v" |) d/ b
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Zhongyuan Real Estate predicts that in 2008, with the standardization of land mechanism and the tightening of monetary policy, domestic real estate enterprises will be forced to seek new breakthroughs in financial difficulties, the reshuffle of the real estate industry will also come, the new pattern of the real estate industry will gradually take shape, and the real estate industry will enter an era dominated by capital.
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6 Y5 c- y( D: g/ V2 w market structure: residential suburbanization, commercial intensification/h-y: G4`/G4L * [7: k! u
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With the introduction of the national housing security system in 2007, the construction and supply of social security housing will increase greatly in the future. However, due to the decision of land value, these mass houses for low-and middle-income people will be suburbanization day by day, thus accelerating the process of urban suburbanization. In addition, with the implementation of the strategy that small and medium-sized units below 90 square meters are the mainstream products, the production mode of real estate development will urgently need to be changed. In this regard, Cheng Yun said that industrialized and intensive green buildings will be the inevitable direction in the future.
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9 `7 ~9 f8 }- B' v) |) 1.] In addition, the trend of residential suburbanization is strengthening, and the introduction of a large number of people will inevitably increase the demand for supporting businesses. In this regard, Cheng Yun said that in view of this problem, Vanke, TEDA and other real estate developers have begun to explore the development model of community shops, which will become the new direction of commercial real estate development.
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Investment pattern: Chinese and foreign investment enthusiasm continues to rise. z2 u% @，j0 `$ I. `4 Q" W
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In 2007, although the country introduced a series of "foreign restrictions" policies, the pace of a large number of foreign-funded institutions investing in China has not slowed down in view of the weak US economy, the temptation of RMB appreciation and the repositioning of global strategic deployment of overseas funds. Cheng Yun said that in 2008, more foreign investors will turn their attention to fast-growing second-and third-tier cities. For domestic investors in 2008, with the rapid development of financial market, the lack of investment channels will be improved, and real estate financial derivatives such as real estate funds and trusts will become new investment products.