On this day, in Hongqiao Town, Yueqing, Wenzhou, 387 kilometers away from Shanghai, the children's aunts and grandfathers happily drove away a Nissan Bluebird from Yueqing Baoxin Dongfeng Nissan Store. Because my cousin's wedding day is coming, it is definitely a big deal to buy a wedding car to welcome the new year. On this day, the data released by the Ministry of Public Security showed that the number of private cars in China exceeded 200 million for the first time, with 409 million motorists.
On this day, about 1 149.5 kilometers away from Shanghai, more than 1000 people flocked to the "Haval 5 million vehicles" ceremony site. This remote city, like 29 1 prefecture-level cities in China, has become the leader of China's manufacturing and automobile civilization transmission with the rapid development of the automobile industry. Less than 50 kilometers away from it, xiong'an new area, a great city, is getting brand-new in the dust.
On this day, Dr. Herbert Diss, the new chairman of Volkswagen, made his first appearance in north american auto show as CEO in Detroit, which is 445.9 kilometers away from Shanghai1/KLOC-0. On the way to Wayne airport hotel, the CEO of Volkswagen North America whispered to Diss about the dinner schedule with Bill Ford, the chairman of Ford Motor Company. When the motorcade passing by on Highway 94 passed by dearborn where Ford was located, Diss stuck his head out of the car and hung a blue "Ford".
This day coincides with the "Laba Festival" of the lunar calendar. People in China have always said that "it is the year after Laba". This day is also the "Enlightenment Day" of Sakyamuni Buddha.
On this day in 588 BC, Sakyamuni Buddha meditated under the bodhi tree of Bodhgaya's King Kong, and realized "enlightenment" on December 8 of the lunar calendar. On this day in 662, Master Huineng, the sixth ancestor of Zen Buddhism in Han Dynasty, used the phrase "Bodhi has no trees, and the mirror is not Taiwan". Nothing, where is the dust? " To explain the essence of Buddhism and Buddhism.
In the first sunshine of the New Year, Bluebird, 200 million private cars, 5 million Haval, Laba Festival, Ford and Herbert Dis all gathered together on the Enlightenment Day, which was quite religious.
Cause and effect, evil and good, virtual and real, positive and negative, annihilation and hope are all pushing this noisy world forward mysteriously and orderly.
China auto market, which has been rising since 1990, peaked on 20 18. After 28 years, the sudden cooling in running all the way caught everyone off guard. As a result, those evil flowers planted in the peak season of the automobile market have turned into various pains in the off-season.
Life is still going on, will the 20 19 car market keep falling? Is there poetry and distance in this industry? The annual "20 19∣ model and trend" reflects on the past and looks forward to the future.
For the coming 20 19 year, we expect:
——20 19, 20 18, after a cliff-like decline in the second half of the year, still declined year-on-year. However, considering that the haze of the trade war dissipated and the economy stabilized, it began to pick up gradually in July with reference to 20 18. It is estimated that the annual growth rate is between 2% and 3%, and the long-term growth rate is about half of GDP growth.
-maintaining the mid-term trend judgment of 20 18, the total automobile market will increase to 35 million vehicles in 2025, and new energy (including plug-in hybrid) will be the only source of growth;
-Whatever the outcome of the Sino-US trade war, in 20 19 years, the leaders Volkswagen and GM will see their peaks and valleys in China. Foreign brands that are weak and strongly substituted by local brands in China and refuse to adapt to changes, Subaru and ds will face withdrawal from the China market, and the share of local brands in China will further increase;
——20 19 will be a big year for mergers and acquisitions at home and abroad, including T3 (three central enterprises alliance), Geely mixed reform BAIC and Volkswagen alliance Ford, all of which will be vigorously promoted in 20 19, but the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance was arrested because of Ghosn, and the alliance separation became a high probability event;
——2065 438+09 The traditional first-and second-tier markets will once again become the main thrust of market growth, while the third-and fourth-tier markets will lose momentum due to the "blood-sucking effect" of real estate and the consumption delay caused by the economic slowdown. Although the "car going to the countryside" stimulus measures boost confidence, it will regain its momentum after 2020;
-The capital winter is approaching, and the new forces that rely heavily on capital are in recession. After 2020, only two or three companies will barely support it.
When growth comes too easily, the hidden dangers behind it are easily overlooked; When the decline comes too fast, hope is pinned on this vast land, waiting for the spring breeze to take root and sprout.
Everything has cracks, so the light will come in. Everything has cracks, and that's how light comes in.
Fear the market and enjoy prosperity.
On June 4th, 65438+ 10, China Automobile Industry Association released data: in 20 18, automobile production and sales were 27,809,200 and 28,080,600 respectively, down by 4. 16% and 2.76% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars were 23.5294 million and 23.7098 million, down 5./kloc-0.5% and 4.08% year-on-year; The production and sales of commercial vehicles were 4,279,800 and 4,370,800, up by 1.69% and 5.05% respectively.
The last decline in the auto market dates back to 1990, when more than half of my colleagues were not born. These young people who have never experienced the cold snap in the auto market, and everyone who is used to growing up, can easily use exaggerated words to describe the whereabouts and inner panic of the auto market.
Words and actions are the truest expression of the heart, and any result is due to the seeds planted at the beginning. According to the principle of economics, the relationship between supply and demand determines the product price, but the characteristics of the automobile industry are: the supply-side capacity input cycle is long, and the input cost and exit cost are huge. Therefore, the relationship between supply and demand not only determines the price of products, but also determines the overall health of the industry.
As early as 20 13, the industry has entered a micro-growth cycle, but the preferential purchase tax policies and SUVs that stimulate growth have been singing all the way, and the growth that originally fell back to around 5% was quickly replaced by double-digit growth.
By the end of 20 17, the annual production capacity of automobile enterprises in China included 64 million vehicles under construction. In the second half of 20 17, new forces added cars to further expand production capacity, which led to the supply side running counter to the automobile demand cycle. 20 18 The demand for real estate in the third-and fourth-tier markets surged in the first half of the year, which evacuated the source of China's automobile growth. In the second half of the year, the Sino-US trade war began, curbing the consumption power of the first-and second-tier markets. The hidden contradiction between supply and demand broke out completely.
The decline of 20 18 is closely related to the economic slowdown in China. 1988 global stock market crash, 1998 Asian financial turmoil, and the subprime mortgage crisis hit the world in 2008. Until 20 18, the global important markets were generally depressed, and the once-in-a-decade pan-economic quagmire brought a mysterious environment to the decline of the automobile market, and some explanations even approached fatalism or idealistic periodicity.
However, don't forget that the US auto market began to recover from the first month of 2009, and China auto market even resumed growth from September 2008, with an increase of over 30% in 2009. Therefore, "peace and prosperity have cultivated a group of cowards in vain, and hardship is always the mother of strength." We must remember Shakespeare's advice.
"After experiencing the free fall of 20 18, on the supply side, all manufacturers will return to rationality when making the production and marketing plan of 20 19. On the demand side, there will not be a particularly big reversal in 20 19, but with the economic stabilization and the end of the trade war, zero growth or slightly negative growth will become the cognition of most people. " 2065438+At the beginning of 2009, Li Haigang, CEO of JD.COM Automobile, concluded in his column The Call of Winter.
20 19, where are you?
China's auto industry, which has been hit hard, will usher in a scarred new era. At this time, Mr. Xu Changming, the director and deputy director of China Information Center, who has been advocating "R-value theory" and promoting "China striding towards 40 million vehicles", should go to Mohe for a holiday and be completely awake.
Firmly believe that "the annual production and sales of 40 million vehicles" all fell black and blue on 20 18. Changan, BAIC and FAW are all involved in it to varying degrees. More rational GAC and SAIC stayed awake in the noise and helped them through the difficult year of 20 18 cautiously and pragmatically.
Among the multinational companies represented by Hyundai Kia Group and Ford Motor Company, their new production capacity has doubled from 20 14 to 20 17. The total production capacity of the former seven factories has exceeded 2.5 million vehicles, including Beijing Hyundai1650,000 vehicles, Dongfeng Da Yue Kia 880,000 vehicles, and Changan Ford's total production capacity in Chongqing, Hangzhou and Northeast China.
Toyota has a production capacity of 1.25 million vehicles, and achieved production and sales of 1.3 million vehicles in 20 18 years, with a capacity utilization rate of 104%. No comparison, no harm. Toyota, which is more pragmatic and cautious, has become the biggest winner in the 20 18 China auto market, and Ford has plunged by nearly 50%. Hyundai Kia barely stabilized, but its profits fell sharply.
For the 20 19 China car, there are disputes and differences, pessimism and optimism. But most institutions are cautiously optimistic.
20 18 12.20, Xu Haidong, assistant secretary general of China Automobile Association, predicted that this year's sales volume is expected to be the same as 20 18, and the overall demand is about 28 million vehicles; The State Council Development Research Center predicts that the sales volume will increase by about 2% this year; China Automotive Technology Research Center predicts that 20 19 vehicles will increase by 0.7%; The Federation predicts that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 6.5438+0.6 million this year, up 33% year-on-year.
20 19 which market segments are more worth looking forward to? Which companies will continue to outperform the broader market? Opportunity will not care for all people, it is only a few people who prefer hard work, persistence and correctness.
At the beginning of last year, 20 18 ∣ (I) The pattern and trend of glory and dreams were judged. The SUV market of 20 18 is not worth looking forward to. Facts have proved that SUV has become a powerful pusher to push down the dominoes in 20 18 automobile market. So will the 20 19 SUV continue to decline, or will it stop falling and rebound?
We predict that with the gradual elimination of a large number of low-end SUVs, local brand SUVs will still fall in the first half of the year. However, with the recovery of consumer confidence and the entry of many new products of joint venture SUV, SUV will lead the market recovery in the second half of the year. This year, the joint venture SUV will continue its own counterattack.
Another market segment worth looking forward to is the medium-sized MPV in the range of 65,438+00 ~ 65,438+05 yuan, with BYD Song MAX, Chuanqi GM6 and Geely Cargill as the main force, which will gradually activate the space and multi-functional demand that has been neglected for many years.
In addition, with the launch of popular SUVs such as Ge Tan and Tuyue, the replacement of Honda Binzhi and XR-V brothers is imminent, as well as the individualized demand stimulated by the body workmanship of Tucson and Hacker, C-HR and Yize, the compact SUV is expected to turn over in one fell swoop this year. The bad news is that Civic, Sagitar and Golf are all cruelly putting pressure on their own alternative consumption.
In addition, in addition to the replacement of joint-venture mid-size cars and SUVs, low-end MPVs continue to decline sharply because products cannot keep up with consumer demand.
Finally, the luxury car market will continue to move forward on the basis of maintaining the growth rate of 10% at 20 18, and it is expected to cross the 3 million mark at 20 19. Undoubtedly, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi will continue to expand their share, Volvo and Jaguar Land Rover will still find it difficult to get rid of the passive situation, Cadillac's strategy of seeking quantity by price is unsustainable, and Britain, finidi and Acura will be on the verge of life and death. By the way, Lexus, which is eyeing up, will finally finalize its domestic production, and join hands with powerful partners to formally declare war on ABB.
This means that the pattern of 20 19 will continue the shock trend of last year. First of all, weak independent brands accelerated their departure, Jianghuai, Pentium, Dongfeng and Zotye continued to struggle, and Lifan, Cheetah, Huatai, Hanteng and Landwind withdrew from the market and entered the countdown.
Among the joint ventures, Ford Motor Company and Shenlong Motor Company are still hopeless; Whether Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors, which stopped falling on 20 18, can withstand the double attack of their own brands and Japanese rivals will be crucial in the first half of the year; Toyota/Honda/Nissan will continue to make steady progress, but the future of Mazda is worrying. The first-line camp will be under great pressure in 20 19, and it is difficult for SAIC-GM to maintain growth in 20 18, but the decline in sales in 20 19 is inevitable. 20 19 will be the starting point of Volkswagen's down cycle.
Brothers quarrel in the wall-brothers fight at home.
"I wanted to buy a golf, but the preferential price of exploring songs in the store attracted me." 65438+1 October1,a young man from Chengdu, whose net name is "Gao Bu Shuai", happily shows off his orange tanko in Tik Tok.
The public's worst fears have finally happened. Although 20 18 launched three powerful SUVs, Ge Tan, Tan Yue and Tuyue, it didn't help the public to share the final dividend of SUVs, and it also made consumers confused. The SUV of the same brand car is replaced, and the North and South Volkswagen are replaced. The powerful public trouble is coming.
What's more troublesome is that the listing of the new generation Passat not only quickly reduced the price and demanded quantity, but also surpassed the Accord in sales volume, and the 200,000-yuan model representing the brand highland was replaced by Camry. The new LaVida started badly, and the old and new teams still lost to Nissan Sylphy. Tiguan was chased by CR-V and Qi Jun from time to time. 16 10 16, SAIC Volkswagen was reported by its Jiangsu dealer that its inventory was "out of stock", and the crisis had been hidden for a long time and fermentation spread. 20 19, faw-Volkswagen still has several SUVs to stabilize the market. The overdrawn SAIC Volkswagen is in big trouble.
Statistics show that the average selling price of Volkswagen brand in China market has dropped for four consecutive years, which means that the brand value of Volkswagen is slowly declining. If the "brother wall" that broke out in 20 18 due to the market downturn has not been stopped in time, after seven years of growth, 20 19 will be a turning point in the rise and fall of the public.
In the autumn of 2065438+2008, Herbert Diss condescended to be the head of China as the CEO of the group, which shows that the China market is irreplaceable. More importantly, Jochem Heizmann, a kind old professor, has been unable to balance the bottomless internal friction between North and South, from product to brand and from price to value.
History always repeats itself over and over again. On June 7, 2009 165438+ 10/kloc-0, the hands of An Tiecheng, then general manager of FAW-Volkswagen, Vahland, then chairman of Volkswagen China, and Liu Jian, then general manager of SAIC- Volkswagen were tightly held together. Behind them, a sunspot landed on a huge map of China. The launch of the "South China Strategy" has become the starting point for Volkswagen to return to its peak in China.
Because of pride and refusal to change, Volkswagen has been punished by the market since the summer of 2004. Until the appearance of Vahland, from the start of the Olympic Plan in 2005, to the launch of the "TSI+DSG" powertrain strategy in 2008, and then to the "South China Strategy" in 2009, the three strategies laid the foundation for Volkswagen to return to its peak in 20 12.
At this stage, driven by the powerful Vahland, the company deeply reflected on the products, costs and internal friction of the North-South joint venture company, and the North-South public joined forces to attack. With the listing of 20 1 1 brand-new magotan and Passat as a symbol, Volkswagen began its glory that lasted until 20 18.
The market competition has changed from the incremental era to the stock era, and the North and South Volkswagen, whose products and brand positioning are close, will have to face the cruel competition facts from their brothers. In addition, because of the price war impact between ABB, Audi, with weak brand power, took the initiative to provoke the price war with BMW and Mercedes-Benz in order to regain the first position, which directly reduced the prices of Audi's main models Q5, A4L, Q3 and A3 from the range of more than 230,000 yuan to about18 ~ 320,000 yuan, directly impacting the markets where Volkswagen Passat/Magotan, Tiguan and Sagitar are located.
In addition, the strong rise of Japanese in SUV market and mid-size car market has also shaken the dominance of Tiguan, Sagitar and LaVida before their respective market segments. After the replacement, the new generation of LaVida has been unable to move forward. Two months after Tanco went public, it was forced to lower its price. Tanco, Tiguan and Tan Yue grabbed the potential customers of sagitar, Ling Du, C-TREK and Golf, the internal friction of Tiguan/Tan Yue/Tanco, the mutual encroachment of Tuyue and Tiguan L, and the huge product layout of Volkswagen completely changed from the multi-point offensive advantage in the incremental era to the competitive disadvantage in the stock competition era.
Vahland has retired early to make ends meet. Ten years later, 2065438+February 27th, 2009, the brand-new brand of FAW-Volkswagen Jetta will be listed in his German hometown. In the summer of 20 19, SAIC-Volkswagen's SAIC Audi will be officially listed.
The cruel reality is that the third brand of FAW-Volkswagen will directly compete with Jetta, Santana, LaVida and Bora, and the annual sales of these brands have reached10.2 million. SAIC Audi has not yet operated, and it began to look north at FAW Audi. Smiling Edith, how to completely settle these thorny contradictions? Perhaps it was because we wanted to keep Volkswagen's advantage in China that we decided to bet on electric vehicles with the help of the group?
Slow down, go out and be strong.
The conservative and steady sales target of 20 19 is only more than 20 1810,000 vehicles, indicating that the enterprising Geely automobile decided to slow down its pace in the local market on the first day of the new year. However, since Proton was put into production and Lotus restarted its European plan, the globalization of Geely Automobile has accelerated.
"As the leader of China automobile brand, Geely Automobile should not only be the leader of China market, but also go out calmly with fearless national confidence, fully participate in global competition and enter the first camp of the global automobile market." On June 7, 20 18, at the London terminal of "China-Europe Quality Line", An Conghui, president of Geely Holding, showed Geely's vision of globalization to the global media.
Great Wall Motor, which has finished its adjustment cycle, is ready to do a big job in the new year. On the evening of 20 19 65438+ 10/3, 5 million Havals rolled off the assembly line in Baoding, and Wei Jianjun, chairman of Great Wall Motor, released the "5-2- 1" globalization strategy. It takes five years to achieve annual sales of 2 million vehicles and become the world's first professional SUV brand. This is a tribute to the late Malchow, former president of FCA, and a demonstration to his successor, Mike Manley.
"Whether it's Starbucks, McDonald's or the products of the three major American automobile companies, China consumers have benefited from our interconnection. Now, we are also eager to share with American consumers another high-quality automobile brand-GAC Chuanqi. " 65438+1October 14 At 2 pm, Yu Jun, general manager of Guangzhou Automobile Passenger Car, delivered an 8-minute speech to the global media in English.
There is no spare parts exhibition area that was shelved when 20 15 first landed, and there is no tension when it debuted for the first time. This time, I showed confidence, firmness and courage. Guangzhou Automobile Company, which has become the top car in China, is showing its way forward in the warm winter of Detroit in the face of the haze of Sino-US trade war.
From Geely to Chuanqi, China local brands did not give up expansion because of the stagnant growth of China automobile market, which is a choice that only brave people will make. Just like 50 years ago, in order to escape the plight of Japan's domestic market, Toyota decided to go to the United States to expand strongly.
In the 1960s, Toyota, which had just gained a foothold, sold only 350,000 vehicles a year in China. However, with the support of Hideki Toyoda, the then president, it took 20 years to prepare an ambitious plan to enter the United States, and it took a lot of hardships before it began to bear fruit in the late 1980s.
Fast and slow, offensive and defensive, cautious and optimistic, all at sunrise in winter, dancing the most graceful posture. At the beginning of the new year, the three best auto companies in China have taken the initiative to change. Because the huge domestic production capacity of 60 million vehicles can no longer be digested at home, it is an inevitable choice to face the international market. This means that although the pace of domestic development has gradually shifted from incremental competition to stock competition, the expansion of the international market has just begun.
The most likely mode of automobile globalization in China will be to cooperate with the national "One Belt, One Road" strategy, with the trade and CKD export mode in Southeast Asia and Central Asia as the test water in the short term, the joint venture and cooperation in Africa, the Middle East and South America as the starting point in the medium term, and the localization of developed markets in Europe, America and Japan as the commanding point in the long term.
This is not only the output of production capacity, but also the new thinking of China automobile industry in the new development stage. An example is that since the 1990s, the industries of Brazil, Argentina and other countries, represented by automobiles, have been hollowed out, flourished and declined, and now they are in deep trouble. Including their manufacturing, energy and chemical industries, are controlled by the American and European industrial trusts in the name of trade globalization, and their local basic manufacturing capacity and automobile industry are all strangled in infancy. This model reminds us once again that we must establish a complete industrial system and strengthen the manufacturing capacity of basic industries and core components.
20 18 With the outbreak of Sino-US trade war, globalization has entered a new stage, and western civilization has begun to treat China from "contact" to "total containment". Huawei, an outstanding representative of China manufacturing, has been under control everywhere since 20 18. Huawei, which occupies the commanding heights of artificial intelligence and future communication technology, will take the opportunity of 5G technology to guide China to seize the competitive opportunities of artificial intelligence, Internet of Everything and quantum communication in the future. As an important aspect of the future manufacturing industry, the depth and future of the automobile industry have been so closely linked.
This is not a trade conflict, it is a new starting point for eastern and western civilizations to compete for the commanding heights in the future.
Text/Wei Jinqiao
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