Actively responding to and leading the new normal of economic development is undoubtedly a major theme of the 20 15 session. Through the government work report and plan report, the top ten figures outline the general trend of China 20 15 under the new normal.
Data-GDP growth of about 7%: demonstrating the determination to stabilize growth and adjust the structure
According to the government work report, the GDP will increase by about 7% in 20 15 years. This figure is 0.5 percentage points lower than last year, which is also the lowest expected target since 2004.
"The downward pressure on the economy has increased and the upward momentum is insufficient. Downgrading the growth target is a pragmatic move made by the China Municipal Government to objectively analyze the current economic situation, and it also shows the firm determination to change the mode and adjust the structure. " Liu Shucheng, member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and deputy director of the Economics Department of China Academy of Social Sciences, said.
The expected target of around 7% meets the requirements of medium and high-speed development and is consistent with the growth potential of China at this stage, which can be achieved through hard work. At the same time, this goal is also conducive to stabilizing employment and connecting with the expected goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way.
Wang Jun, deputy director of the consulting and research department of China International Economic Exchange Center, said that it is possible to set higher goals, but all parties will be nervous. "Setting the goal of adapting to the new normal is conducive to stabilizing confidence in meeting the standards, leaving enough room for structural adjustment, and guiding the whole society to deepen reform, improve quality and efficiency."
The downward adjustment of the growth target sends a strong signal to enterprises. "Under the background that the whole country pays more attention to the quality of growth than the speed, enterprises should adjust their mentality, not place their hopes on large-scale stimulus policies, but tap their internal potential through technological innovation." Chen, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of Hunan Lengshuijiang Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. said.
Data 2 Consumer prices rose by about 3%: leaving room for monetary policy and price reform.
According to the government work report, the consumer price will increase by about 3% in 20 15 years, slightly lower than the target of 3.5% last year.
Li Daokui, a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and a professor of economics in Tsinghua University, said that China's economy is a dual structure with rising prices. The prices of manufactured goods are falling, but the prices of agricultural products and resource products are rising. Although the short-term energy price is relatively low, we can't expect this pattern to last for a long time, and there is still upward pressure on the prices of agricultural products.
In 20 14, the consumer price in China increased by 2% over the previous year, and the price level was generally stable. At present, the international commodity prices are running at a low level, the supply of important domestic commodities is abundant, some industries have overcapacity, and the overall price level may continue to be weak.
Bai Chongen, a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and vice president of Tsinghua University Institute of Economics and Management, said that the low growth rate of CPI provided space for the appropriate relaxation of monetary policy and reserved space for price reform.
Data 3 Estimated growth of fixed assets investment in the whole society 15%: effective investment is the key.
According to the plan report, the fixed assets investment of the whole society is expected to increase by 15% in 2065, which is lower than the target of 17.5% last year and close to the actual growth rate of 15.7% last year.
Committee member Li Daokui believes that it is reasonable to moderately reduce the investment growth target. "Because the country will not engage in large-scale investment this year, but promote investment to optimize production capacity, investment in the people's livelihood will become one of the growth points to stimulate the economy."
"There are many opportunities for effective investment, which is the biggest difference between China as a developing country and a developed country." Lin Yifu, a CPPCC member and economist, believes that "there are still many debts in infrastructure construction, urban rail transit, subway and road construction are seriously inadequate, and the underground pipe network is obviously aging; At the same time, China's environmental pressure is high, and energy conservation, emission reduction and pollution control require a lot of investment. "
The government work report proposes to reform the investment and financing system in a multi-pronged manner, greatly reduce the scope of investment projects approved by the government, and greatly relax the market access for private investment.
Li Daokui said that the key to promoting investment lies in the reform of financing methods. We can no longer rely solely on bank loans and government guarantees, nor can we rely on borrowing new ones to repay old ones and rolling debts. "Social funds should be guided to invest in long-term returns and basic projects that match the financial resources of local governments."
Data 4 Estimated growth of total retail sales of social consumer goods 13%: transforming consumption potential into supporting power.
According to the plan report, the total retail sales of social consumer goods is expected to increase by 13% in 20 15 years, slightly lower than the expectation of 14.5% last year.
In 20 14 years, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 26,239.4 billion yuan, with a nominal increase of 12% and a real increase of 10.9%. Bai Zhongen believes that the downward pressure on the economy is increasing, which needs to be supported by accelerating the cultivation of new consumption growth points, and puts forward consumption expectations higher than the actual growth rate last year, indicating that there may be more actions in promoting consumption this year.
The government work report puts forward that it is necessary to speed up the cultivation of consumption growth points and promote consumption in six major areas, such as old-age domestic health, information, tourism and leisure, green, housing, education, culture and sports.
Bai Zhongen believes that it is not difficult to achieve this expected goal this year, and consumption has great potential in many aspects. For example, the old-age care service is conducive to the expansion of consumption in the whole society, and the rise of the new economy based on the Internet has brought growth space for consumption.
Li Daokui believes that residents' consumption in China is starting, and the proportion of residents' consumption in GDP has increased in recent years, which is a bright spot of economic development. "The next step should mainly start low-end consumer demand. With the continuous improvement of wage level and the increase of per capita disposable income, consumption can be further stimulated. "
Data 5 M2 is expected to increase by about 12%, which is beneficial to structural adjustment and risk prevention.
According to the government work report, the broad money M2 is expected to increase by about 12% this year, and the target of 20 13% is 12.2%. 2014,65438 at the end of February, the balance of broad money (M2) was 122.84 trillion yuan.
Wu Xiaoling, deputy to the National People's Congress (NPC) and vice chairman of NPC Financial and Economic Committee, said that the expected growth target of about M2 12% is moderate and reasonable. "There has always been a misunderstanding in the market, that is, the central bank's monetary policy operation means is regarded as a change in monetary policy orientation, and the monetary policy orientation has not changed. The central bank has been implementing a neutral monetary policy. "
M2 (broad money) increased by 10.8% from June to October this year, the lowest since February. Last year 1 1 and February this year, the central bank lowered the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans twice, aiming at reducing the financing cost of the real economy, supporting structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading, and preventing and resolving financial risks.
Data 6 Fiscal deficit 1.62 trillion: Make the proactive fiscal policy more active.
According to the government work report, this year's fiscal deficit is planned to be 1.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 270 billion yuan over last year, and deficit ratio has increased from 2. 1% last year to 2.3%.
"The scale of the deficit and the rise of deficit ratio are the inevitable manifestations of the severe fiscal revenue and expenditure situation this year." Kang Jia, member of Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and vice president of China Finance Association, said that this is also the requirement of implementing the proactive fiscal policy determined by the Central Economic Work Conference.
"The scale of the deficit and deficit ratio are obviously still in the safe zone and will not cause much risk." Konka said that the increased financial input will pay more attention to the expenditure arrangement of "highlighting key points and giving consideration to the general".
How to spend less, do more and do good? Konka suggested: "While appropriately increasing the scale of local government's' sunshine' debt, we should vigorously promote the innovation of PPP mechanism to play the role of private capital and social funds."
Gu Shengzu, deputy to the National People's Congress and deputy director of NPC Financial and Economic Committee, said that during the two sessions, delegates will review and discuss whether the budget report is spent on the "cutting edge".
Data 7: Energy consumption intensity decreased by more than 3. 1%: there is no suspense in completing the 12th Five-Year Plan.
According to the government work report, the energy consumption intensity will drop by more than 3. 1% this year, and the discharge of major pollutants will continue to decrease.
Gu Shengzu said that the 20 15 energy conservation and emission reduction target is the same as last year. This shows that there is no suspense in successfully completing the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" energy conservation and emission reduction target. On the other hand, considering the downward pressure on GDP growth, it is conducive to maintaining stable macroeconomic growth and smooth progress in industrial transformation and upgrading.
In 20 14, the annual task of reducing the total amount of major pollutants in China was successfully completed, but the current situation of reducing emissions is still very grim. Gu Shengzu said: "We must comply with the people's expectations for a good ecological environment, strengthen the hard constraints of energy conservation and emission reduction, and focus on strengthening the management of ecological environment such as atmosphere, water and soil."
Bai Zhongen suggested that by encouraging the development of new energy sources and green service industries, we can achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction, effectively improve the environment and provide new growth points for the macro-economy.
Data 8 Import and export increased by about 6%: the new opening-up strategy added momentum.
According to the government work report, the import and export of foreign trade will increase by about 6% this year, which is lower than the expected target of 7.5% last year and higher than the actual growth rate of 3.4%.
"The downward adjustment of the expected growth rate of foreign trade is in line with the current international and domestic environment, and it also shows that China is getting rid of the economic growth model driven by exports and investment and seeking more lasting and stable growth momentum." Cai Jiming, deputy to the National People's Congress and director of Tsinghua University Political Economy Research Center, said.
The expected indicators of foreign trade import and export have not been completed in the past three years, which shows that the international trade situation is complicated and severe after the international financial crisis. Since the beginning of this year, China's foreign trade is still under great pressure. In June, the total import and export value was 5438+ 10, which was lower than that in October 10.8%. Gao Hucheng, Minister of Commerce, said that it takes hard work to achieve the steady growth of foreign trade in 20 15.
But don't be too pessimistic. Cai Jiming said that although the international market demand is weak, China's low-cost advantage is weakened, and commodity prices are falling, the grand strategy of China's open economy will add lasting impetus to the development and transformation of foreign trade. "For example, the" Belt and Road "strategy will become a big platform for trade integration between China and the vast number of emerging countries."
Data 9: More than 10 million urban jobs have been created: employment will not be "reduced" when the economy slows down.
According to the government work report, more than10,000 urban jobs will be created this year, the same as last year's goal. The registered unemployment rate in cities and towns is within 4.5%, which is 0. 1 percentage point higher than last year.
"In the face of the reality of economic slowdown, the new government has a clear attitude and is fully committed to stabilizing and promoting employment." Gu Shengzu said, "With the increase of economic aggregate and the optimization of economic structure, China's economy can ensure a certain employment growth without maintaining excessive speed."
The data shows that the added value of tertiary industry accounted for 48.2% of GDP in 20 14, which was 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous year. China's economy is gradually changing from manufacturing industry to service industry, and the carrying capacity of the whole economy to employment is strengthening.
"In recent years, a series of measures to encourage entrepreneurship and innovation will play a greater role in 20 15." Gu Shengzu said that most of the newly established enterprises belong to small and micro enterprises and service industries, which attract more employees and have strong growth, and are a new supporting force for China's economic growth.
Data 10 will reduce poverty1100,000: fill the shortcomings of a well-off society in an all-round way.
According to the government work report, the number of poor people in rural areas will be reduced by more than100000 this year.
There are only less than six years left before the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way in 2020, but there are still more than 70 million people in China who need to get rid of poverty. "This year, the downward pressure on the national economy is great, and the country's financial resources are tight. However, the government has not reduced the number of poverty alleviation tasks at all, which makes us people in poverty-stricken areas feel very warm. " Tie Yanfei, a deputy to the National People's Congress from Yunnan, said.
According to the statistics of the World Bank, more than 600 million people in China have been lifted out of poverty since the reform and opening up. However, influenced by historical, natural and social factors, the poverty situation is still very serious. 14 The per capita net income of farmers in contiguous poverty-stricken areas is only 60% of the national average. There are still thousands of villages without electricity and nearly 65,438+10,000 villages without cement asphalt roads.
"The most arduous and arduous task of building a well-off society in an all-round way is poverty-stricken areas, and this shortcoming must be filled." Liu Yongfu, deputy to the National People's Congress and director of the the State Council Poverty Alleviation Office, said, "At present, China's poor people are mainly concentrated in areas with fragile ecological environment and difficult living conditions, and poverty alleviation work has entered the stage of' gnawing hard bones'."
Tie said that poverty alleviation is not as simple as the state giving some money and distributing some rice. The key is to create conditions for people in poor areas to develop by their own efforts. "At present, for Yunnan, the key to getting rid of poverty lies in improving transportation."